ORAN [1778676] —
Original article
When will Donator Packs see another price change? Which premium alcohol item is now cheaper than ever? And why should you consider buying up dog s**t and weed on Monday?
March has proven to be a volatile month for traders of both items and points. Despite a hefty wartime demand for various commodities and currencies, the markets are in total depression, with prices going down day by day. But is there an end in sight? And which forthcoming events might provide us with a solution? Here to tell us more is ORAN, a long-time trader who is the author of March's Market Report.
WHAT'S THE POINT?
The big news of late has been the huge decline in the price of points, a topic which WoollyMammoth covered thoroughly in his excellent recent article. Points have been declining steadily in value since early February, and in our previous market report, they were valued at around $51,500 per point. On March 18th they fell to a sub $50k value and stayed there, with their current price being $49,676 - UPDATE ON DAY
WoollyMammoth covered some of the possible reasons for this drop, with the most noticeable being the new ability to exchange multiple flower and plushie sets at once - as you can see by the corresponding price drop of $300 on the 1st of March. Hopefully this drop will be temporary, since many people likely exchanged their entire sets in one go, reducing the likelihood of another one-off surge.
I noticed that many people who wanted points began to buy flowers and plushies from the market when the easy exchange system was introduced. This is known to be a cheaper way of gaining points than buying them from the points market. If flower and pushie stocks do dwindle slightly, the demand for these items could see their price recover somewhat.
That being said, I believe demand in the points market has gone down, as point blocks without significant discounts are taking longer to sell than usual. But BeerDrinker disagrees, and feels that the demand for points is actually increasing.
"People, regardless of how easy museum is to us, have always been assembling sets, whether through flight or market assembly. This is not to say the change didn't heavily change things, but I would be wary of assigning this lower price to the museum change."
Another observation I've made is that the pawn shop points value seems to be updated more often than it used to be. It appears that the current price has been reduced to the base cost of a plushie or flower set divided by 10. This change has caused many traders to offer points at lower than usual prices, with cash-desperate casino hounds happy to part with their points for as little as $48k per point in order to free up cash for Russian Roulette and the bookies.
DONATOR PACK IT IN
Another item whose price went through the floor this month was the Donator Pack. Our previous report explained how DPs had been continuously dropping since November 2018, with prices close to a flat $26m the last time we checked. Their average valuation is now just above $25.5m, with the pawn shop price having been dropped to $25.2m from $25.7m by the economist on February 28th.
The cause of this continued drop is as yet unknown - there could be an underlying reason in place which has existed since November, or it could be due to the culmination of multiple events including the recent war and the fraud committed by two Torn citizens. Either way, the sudden pawn shop price caused many to panic sell their DPs, although BeerDrinker believes panic isn't really the right word.
"The panic sell was not really a panic sell imo. People finally had some room to make profit, so they started to sell after buying cheaper DPs. I highly doubt even the best buymuggers would be willing to go for a 300k drop. This is more likely to be mass listings, with small 1-2 DP listings that lowered price."
One thing I was shocked to discover was just how many people were hoarding Donator Packs. Some people had hundreds, whereas I, a trader, only ever have anywhere between 30 to 90 in stock. Three people tried to sell me 500 packs at a time within the space of ten minutes when prices were dropped, and even more offers came throughout the day.
Market manipulation must've also played its part in the recent price drop, as must the behaviour of buy-muggers, who are able to sell their collection of Donator Packs whenever and at any cost so they have the cash flow to continue their evil deeds. These practices in turn lead to people undercutting each other, sometimes dropping $300k at a time from their prices.
Pictured: An undercut.
The average price of a DP has shown signs of recovery in the past few days, with the March 16th price of $25.24m proving the lowest point so far. By March 18th they had gained $400k in the space of just two days, and while about $80k of this has fallen off since, there are signs that recovery may be on its way. I'd guess we might have a significant increase in the middle of April, but much will depend on when the next pawn shop price alteration is made.
The last two DP pawn shop price changes were made on the 4th and 28th of February. A quote from Chedburn to Sugarvalves revealed that "it's adjusted based on word from the economist. So manual changes every 2-6 weeks or so". It seems we are perhaps overdue another change, meaning that everyone should keep their eyes fixed on Felix the pawn shop guy between now and mid-April.
FEATHERED FRIENDS
In the last market report, War_Warrior mentioned how many players were purchasing Donator Packs to resell, before using the profits to buy Feathery Hotel Coupons. Several people contacted us to say they were doing this to help fulfill the conditions of Hildegarde's Ultimate 365 training guide.
We haven't yet managed to prove whether FHC prices have been affected by the popularity of this guide, but their valuation has been rather high for much of the past month, with prices shooting from $14.3m to $14.8m during mid-February. At one point, some bazaars were pricing FHCs at $15-15.2m, with these items enjoying a huge boost in demand from elite players who were training their stats and using the Ugly Energy book.
There were rumors of players stockpiling FHCs for the recent wars and chains, but this was quickly dismissed as their circulation graph showed no sign of a drop in numbers. Most players admitted to using these items for training, and with the war therefore not really affecting the FHC's price, most of the fluctuations we've seen this month can be attributed to the activity of bulk buyers.
ST RELENTLESS DAY
On the 17th of March Torn celebrated St. Patrick's Day / St Relentless Day by doubling all alcohol effects. As this is the second time this event has occurred, we only have the trends from 2018 to compare this year's figures to. Nevertheless, some distinct patterns do seem to have emerged.
Pictured: Distinct patterns.
Alcohol items at the higher end enjoyed a boost in their prices on and around the St Patrick's Day weekend, with Stinky Swamp Punch and Mistletoe Madness gaining $40k before losing it in the days that followed. Every other alcoholic beverage experienced either no or little growth, yet many still endured a huge drop in average price following the weekend anyway, with traders' hopes for a repeat of the December highs unfortunately lost.
In addition to the alcohol boost, 22,287 bottles of Green Stout were given out over the St Patrick's Day weekend (32,573 were spawned, meaning over 10,000 weren't picked up!), compared to just over 10,000 handed out last year. We all knew this stock surge would lead to a dip in valuation, but I don't think anyone predicted just how low Green Stout would go. From a pre-St Paddy's price of $5.1m, Green Stout can now be bought for as little as $1.2m, making the five nerve it provides much more reasonable as a result.
XANAX AXED
Xanax prices look to be on a downwards trend at the moment. After reaching a 2-month high of $840k on the 7th of March at the height of the war, prices have now dropped to an average of about $835k. It is known that one trader sold a huge stock of Xanax at $830k recently, so this contributed in part to the downturn. Some Xanax traders with large reserves also took their stock off the market, so the removal of those items may have had an effect too.
"I believe the fun in dollar sales is just missing because almost no one holds them anymore... If the Demand comes in from the players I have no problem making these daily as well as encouraging other people to hold dollar sales."
If you're wondering how these sales work, you simply turn up to the bazaar at the right time and buy things for a dollar! It's that easy. You can get some outstanding bargains if you're quick enough. Thanks to ORAN for organising these sales and for writing the market report. If you are a successful trader and you'd like to write our next market report, please contact Sugarvalves at your earliest convenience.
WHAT'S THE POINT?
The big news of late has been the huge decline in the price of points, a topic which WoollyMammoth covered thoroughly in his excellent recent article. Points have been declining steadily in value since early February, and in our previous market report, they were valued at around $51,500 per point. On March 18th they fell to a sub $50k value and stayed there, with their current price being $49,676 - UPDATE ON DAY
WoollyMammoth covered some of the possible reasons for this drop, with the most noticeable being the new ability to exchange multiple flower and plushie sets at once - as you can see by the corresponding price drop of $300 on the 1st of March. Hopefully this drop will be temporary, since many people likely exchanged their entire sets in one go, reducing the likelihood of another one-off surge.
I noticed that many people who wanted points began to buy flowers and plushies from the market when the easy exchange system was introduced. This is known to be a cheaper way of gaining points than buying them from the points market. If flower and pushie stocks do dwindle slightly, the demand for these items could see their price recover somewhat.
That being said, I believe demand in the points market has gone down, as point blocks without significant discounts are taking longer to sell than usual. But BeerDrinker disagrees, and feels that the demand for points is actually increasing.
"People, regardless of how easy museum is to us, have always been assembling sets, whether through flight or market assembly. This is not to say the change didn't heavily change things, but I would be wary of assigning this lower price to the museum change."
Another observation I've made is that the pawn shop points value seems to be updated more often than it used to be. It appears that the current price has been reduced to the base cost of a plushie or flower set divided by 10. This change has caused many traders to offer points at lower than usual prices, with cash-desperate casino hounds happy to part with their points for as little as $48k per point in order to free up cash for Russian Roulette and the bookies.
DONATOR PACK IT IN
Another item whose price went through the floor this month was the Donator Pack. Our previous report explained how DPs had been continuously dropping since November 2018, with prices close to a flat $26m the last time we checked. Their average valuation is now just above $25.5m, with the pawn shop price having been dropped to $25.2m from $25.7m by the economist on February 28th.
The cause of this continued drop is as yet unknown - there could be an underlying reason in place which has existed since November, or it could be due to the culmination of multiple events including the recent war and the fraud committed by two Torn citizens. Either way, the sudden pawn shop price caused many to panic sell their DPs, although BeerDrinker believes panic isn't really the right word.
"The panic sell was not really a panic sell imo. People finally had some room to make profit, so they started to sell after buying cheaper DPs. I highly doubt even the best buymuggers would be willing to go for a 300k drop. This is more likely to be mass listings, with small 1-2 DP listings that lowered price."
One thing I was shocked to discover was just how many people were hoarding Donator Packs. Some people had hundreds, whereas I, a trader, only ever have anywhere between 30 to 90 in stock. Three people tried to sell me 500 packs at a time within the space of ten minutes when prices were dropped, and even more offers came throughout the day.
Market manipulation must've also played its part in the recent price drop, as must the behaviour of buy-muggers, who are able to sell their collection of Donator Packs whenever and at any cost so they have the cash flow to continue their evil deeds. These practices in turn lead to people undercutting each other, sometimes dropping $300k at a time from their prices.
Pictured: An undercut.
The average price of a DP has shown signs of recovery in the past few days, with the March 16th price of $25.24m proving the lowest point so far. By March 18th they had gained $400k in the space of just two days, and while about $80k of this has fallen off since, there are signs that recovery may be on its way. I'd guess we might have a significant increase in the middle of April, but much will depend on when the next pawn shop price alteration is made.
The last two DP pawn shop price changes were made on the 4th and 28th of February. A quote from Chedburn to Sugarvalves revealed that "it's adjusted based on word from the economist. So manual changes every 2-6 weeks or so". It seems we are perhaps overdue another change, meaning that everyone should keep their eyes fixed on Felix the pawn shop guy between now and mid-April.
FEATHERED FRIENDS
In the last market report, War_Warrior mentioned how many players were purchasing Donator Packs to resell, before using the profits to buy Feathery Hotel Coupons. Several people contacted us to say they were doing this to help fulfill the conditions of Hildegarde's Ultimate 365 training guide.
We haven't yet managed to prove whether FHC prices have been affected by the popularity of this guide, but their valuation has been rather high for much of the past month, with prices shooting from $14.3m to $14.8m during mid-February. At one point, some bazaars were pricing FHCs at $15-15.2m, with these items enjoying a huge boost in demand from elite players who were training their stats and using the Ugly Energy book.
There were rumors of players stockpiling FHCs for the recent wars and chains, but this was quickly dismissed as their circulation graph showed no sign of a drop in numbers. Most players admitted to using these items for training, and with the war therefore not really affecting the FHC's price, most of the fluctuations we've seen this month can be attributed to the activity of bulk buyers.
ST RELENTLESS DAY
On the 17th of March Torn celebrated St. Patrick's Day / St Relentless Day by doubling all alcohol effects. As this is the second time this event has occurred, we only have the trends from 2018 to compare this year's figures to. Nevertheless, some distinct patterns do seem to have emerged.
Pictured: Distinct patterns.
Alcohol items at the higher end enjoyed a boost in their prices on and around the St Patrick's Day weekend, with Stinky Swamp Punch and Mistletoe Madness gaining $40k before losing it in the days that followed. Every other alcoholic beverage experienced either no or little growth, yet many still endured a huge drop in average price following the weekend anyway, with traders' hopes for a repeat of the December highs unfortunately lost.
In addition to the alcohol boost, 22,287 bottles of Green Stout were given out over the St Patrick's Day weekend (32,573 were spawned, meaning over 10,000 weren't picked up!), compared to just over 10,000 handed out last year. We all knew this stock surge would lead to a dip in valuation, but I don't think anyone predicted just how low Green Stout would go. From a pre-St Paddy's price of $5.1m, Green Stout can now be bought for as little as $1.2m, making the five nerve it provides much more reasonable as a result.
XANAX AXED
Xanax prices look to be on a downwards trend at the moment. After reaching a 2-month high of $840k on the 7th of March at the height of the war, prices have now dropped to an average of about $835k. It is known that one trader sold a huge stock of Xanax at $830k recently, so this contributed in part to the downturn. Some Xanax traders with large reserves also took their stock off the market, so the removal of those items may have had an effect too.
Yet despite the drop, Xanax remains a good item to use to store your cash at the moment, given that so many traders pay close to market value for an item which always sells very quickly, even when added to your bazaar. Almost 13,000 Xanax is used daily, and this obviously increases by quite a lot when events like Elimination or wars are happening.
A quick look at the above graph for Xanax's yearly form shows the past six months have been quite poor for the energy boosting drug. Now would seem like the most opportune time to buy for Torn's fighters and trainers, as its price has only been lower on two occasions - in December and January. But some of you who are looking to stock up on Xanax may wish to hold out in hopes of a better price, as wars aside, there seems to be little reason to expect a dramatic price rise anytime soon.
What we can predict with some confidence is another huge drop in Xanax's price in September of this year. The last drop directly correlates with World Tourism Day, an event whereby travelers are permitted to return home with extra items in their luggage. It seems most people opted to bring back additional Xanax when this promotion was run last year, and with Torn's population now at an all-time high, the 2019 drop could be even more severe.
Pictured: The 2018 circulation graph for Xanax.
In the immediate future, I predict that Xanax may incur a small but noticeable fall in price - anywhere from 5k to 10k - on and around April 20th. This is because this date marks Cannabis Day, and if more people are using weed, it stands to reason that Xanax use may drop off slightly.
CANNABIS DAY
April 20th is Cannabis Day, and in Torn, this event is marked by the tripling of cannabis effects for all citizens. Not only does this mean you'll receive an increase in nerve, but players also stand a much greater chance of overdosing on the drug, which is something many aspire to do in an attempt to acquire the Extraordinary Spaced Out Honor bar.
The price of Cannabis will definitely go up in the days before this event. Last year, weed's average price tripled from $9,867 on April 18th to an astonishing $27,546 on April 20th, before immediately dropping back to its usual value. This increase started as soon as the newspaper released an article revealing this boost for the first time. Buyers and sellers should therefore keep an eye on the newspaper to see when the masses are reminded of this event.
We expect some people will have remembered the date without prompting, though, so we predict a slower but still substantial increase to occur several days before April 20th, with a spike happening on the 19th and 20th as usual - albeit one slightly less pronounced. Circulation only dropped by 400 last year, though, so we don't imagine prices will rise as a result of the date in the days after. Indeed, there's a chance not much will happen at all, as many of those gunning for the OD merit last year may have got it already.
Pictured: A happy merit hunter who has injected too many marijuana's.
EASTER EGGS
The Easter Egg competition begins on the 5th of April, and that means the days prior will see individual egg prices at their highest point for the year. Once the competition has begun, tens of thousands of Easter Eggs are made available throughout Torn, meaning that supplies will increase massively.
Pictured: Red Egg circulation graph.
Individual eggs can be consumed for happiness, and entire sets can also be traded in for a golden egg and a special award. This means that prices can rise before the event, with some players buying up eggs to bolster their chances of acquiring a full set, and a handful of traders doing the same in order to sell to desperate egg collectors once the event has started.
However, as the circulation graph shows, the vast majority of eggs aren't actually used, meaning that every year, the number of eggs increases massively - by about 6,000. Their value also drops in line with this increase, and based on previous years statistics, we estimate all eggs will lose roughly 50% of their value between 5th and 25th of April, when the competition takes place. It therefore makes sense to wait until the end of the competition to buy up any eggs you're missing for your set.
APRIL FOOLS
Every year stink bombs, toilet rolls and dog poop bags are given out on April Fool's Day. This will depress the price of each of these items for about a week to ten days from Monday onward. However, over the past two years, their prices have recovered quickly, regaining their losses in as little as two weeks. So if you need to stock up on happiness reducers, Monday is the day to do it.
Pictured: The production manager.
There will also be a parcel giveaway on the 1st of April which will be publicised in the Torn City Times early on Monday morning - market report readers get this news first! As a result, this giveaway might reduce the price of laptops, trenchcoats, edvds and the other items known to be in these parcels. This depreciation, if it happens, will likely be small and temporary.
DOLLAR SALE
Oran's Bazaar, the bazaar that loads slow (and has a s**t-ton of overpriced guns that destroy your device and sanity) held a dollar sale all day on Friday, and will continue doing so on every Friday for the foreseeable future - eventually expanding to other days as well. A 10 minute heads-up will be given in Trade chat as well as in the Forum post before the sale begins. Our market report author ORAN explains his motives below.A quick look at the above graph for Xanax's yearly form shows the past six months have been quite poor for the energy boosting drug. Now would seem like the most opportune time to buy for Torn's fighters and trainers, as its price has only been lower on two occasions - in December and January. But some of you who are looking to stock up on Xanax may wish to hold out in hopes of a better price, as wars aside, there seems to be little reason to expect a dramatic price rise anytime soon.
What we can predict with some confidence is another huge drop in Xanax's price in September of this year. The last drop directly correlates with World Tourism Day, an event whereby travelers are permitted to return home with extra items in their luggage. It seems most people opted to bring back additional Xanax when this promotion was run last year, and with Torn's population now at an all-time high, the 2019 drop could be even more severe.
Pictured: The 2018 circulation graph for Xanax.
In the immediate future, I predict that Xanax may incur a small but noticeable fall in price - anywhere from 5k to 10k - on and around April 20th. This is because this date marks Cannabis Day, and if more people are using weed, it stands to reason that Xanax use may drop off slightly.
CANNABIS DAY
April 20th is Cannabis Day, and in Torn, this event is marked by the tripling of cannabis effects for all citizens. Not only does this mean you'll receive an increase in nerve, but players also stand a much greater chance of overdosing on the drug, which is something many aspire to do in an attempt to acquire the Extraordinary Spaced Out Honor bar.
The price of Cannabis will definitely go up in the days before this event. Last year, weed's average price tripled from $9,867 on April 18th to an astonishing $27,546 on April 20th, before immediately dropping back to its usual value. This increase started as soon as the newspaper released an article revealing this boost for the first time. Buyers and sellers should therefore keep an eye on the newspaper to see when the masses are reminded of this event.
We expect some people will have remembered the date without prompting, though, so we predict a slower but still substantial increase to occur several days before April 20th, with a spike happening on the 19th and 20th as usual - albeit one slightly less pronounced. Circulation only dropped by 400 last year, though, so we don't imagine prices will rise as a result of the date in the days after. Indeed, there's a chance not much will happen at all, as many of those gunning for the OD merit last year may have got it already.
Pictured: A happy merit hunter who has injected too many marijuana's.
EASTER EGGS
The Easter Egg competition begins on the 5th of April, and that means the days prior will see individual egg prices at their highest point for the year. Once the competition has begun, tens of thousands of Easter Eggs are made available throughout Torn, meaning that supplies will increase massively.
Pictured: Red Egg circulation graph.
Individual eggs can be consumed for happiness, and entire sets can also be traded in for a golden egg and a special award. This means that prices can rise before the event, with some players buying up eggs to bolster their chances of acquiring a full set, and a handful of traders doing the same in order to sell to desperate egg collectors once the event has started.
However, as the circulation graph shows, the vast majority of eggs aren't actually used, meaning that every year, the number of eggs increases massively - by about 6,000. Their value also drops in line with this increase, and based on previous years statistics, we estimate all eggs will lose roughly 50% of their value between 5th and 25th of April, when the competition takes place. It therefore makes sense to wait until the end of the competition to buy up any eggs you're missing for your set.
APRIL FOOLS
Every year stink bombs, toilet rolls and dog poop bags are given out on April Fool's Day. This will depress the price of each of these items for about a week to ten days from Monday onward. However, over the past two years, their prices have recovered quickly, regaining their losses in as little as two weeks. So if you need to stock up on happiness reducers, Monday is the day to do it.
Pictured: The production manager.
There will also be a parcel giveaway on the 1st of April which will be publicised in the Torn City Times early on Monday morning - market report readers get this news first! As a result, this giveaway might reduce the price of laptops, trenchcoats, edvds and the other items known to be in these parcels. This depreciation, if it happens, will likely be small and temporary.
DOLLAR SALE
"I believe the fun in dollar sales is just missing because almost no one holds them anymore... If the Demand comes in from the players I have no problem making these daily as well as encouraging other people to hold dollar sales."
If you're wondering how these sales work, you simply turn up to the bazaar at the right time and buy things for a dollar! It's that easy. You can get some outstanding bargains if you're quick enough. Thanks to ORAN for organising these sales and for writing the market report. If you are a successful trader and you'd like to write our next market report, please contact Sugarvalves at your earliest convenience.
Original article
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