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What could the new loot from Duke attacks be worth? What was the impact of the Easter Egg Hunt event and the 420 day on the market? Find out in April's Market Report.
The past two weeks have been rather eventful in Torn City, as we've seen the 4/20 weekend come and go, the Easter Egg hunt conclude, and the introduction of several new items which can be looted from Duke. All of these events have had an impact on the item market, as have many other things which may have gone unnoticed. To find out what's been happening over the past month, and where the market is heading, let's take a look at this month's Market Report as authored by MeRocks.
EASTER EGGS
The Easter egg hunt saw over 150,000 eggs spawned and collected over 21 days, making the egg market go crazy as a result. There was a brief surge in price of the rarer eggs around April 5th as impatient people strove to complete the set and obtain their merit, leading to some traders buying up the market to drive up the price.
However, as the competition went on, the price of eggs went through the floor as their supply increased. This happens in the aftermath of every Easter event, with egg prices recovering most of their lost value as the year unfolds. But as more and more players have joined Torn these recoveries have become less pronounced, as you can see from this White Easter egg graph which goes back to 2016.
Most of the eggs are now valued around 50% less than they were before the event. Clearly these prices will recover over the next twelve months, but I doubt they'll go beyond 75% of their pre-Easter value before the next hunt begins. Remember, most other candies are cheaper and give more happiness than eggs (except for the gold egg), so the only people who will buy them are those stocking up to sell next year at a higher price.
This is not an unwise tactic. In Torn, it always pays to be prepared and play the long game.
PLUSHIES, FLOWERS AND POINTS
There has been a great deal of analysis of the points market lately, so we'll keep this next entry short and sweet. Torn's continuously expanding playerbase shows no signs of slowing down, and the result is an ever-increasing number of players flying abroad to run plushies and flowers back for profit. As such, the price of these items has fallen since July last year, but a much sharper fall has been noticed since February.
May's Museum Day event on May 18th will likely compound this slump as it allows players to exchange plushies and flower sets at the Museum for 10% more points than usual. A small period of stabilisation may occur in the next week or so as traders stock up on these items ahead of an expected rise in demand, but once Museum Day has passed, the increased supply of plushies and flowers will see their value and that of points plummet further downhill - barring intervention from The Economist, that is.
DONATOR PACKS
The Donator Pack pawn shop price of $25.2 million has not changed for two months now, but an amendment from the Economist is expected imminently. Without his intervention, the DP price on the item market has remained low of late, with no one trader noticeably trying to play the market too much, and a consistent supply and demand flow having been in effect. I can only see DPs going up in the future once the pawn shop price increases, as I see no reason for the pawn shop price to decrease further.
CANNABIS
Bonus days like the recent 4/20 celebration offer traders a great opportunity to artificially increase item prices ahead of time to catch out unwitting buyers. This is precisely what happened this year, as after our previous market report mentioned the return of Cannabis Day, the drug's price increased from $10,444 on the 29th of March to $15,000 by the 1st of April.
Pictured: It would've been cheaper to smoke your money at these prices.
Cannabis remained at a consistent $15,490 until the 16th when other traders and players caught on and began stocking up themselves, boosting weed's price to a yearly high of $17,920 by the 18th. However, once the actual event started, overstocked traders began to list huge quantities of Cannabis - sometimes 20,000 at a time - at prices of $12,000 each, obliterating its market value in one fell swoop.
Once the event ended, the huge demand for cannabis fell, causing some traders to panic sell as low as $8,500. I believe Cannabis should return to its pre-4/20 price of $10,000 after a month or so, though, as once the traders have sold off their excess, people will have to rely on imported weed alone - something which is not run often due to its low profit margins.
DUKE LOOT
Last week's announcement that Duke could be looted for several unique items sparked excitement within the Torn community, with traders especially curious as to how much money could be made from reselling these rare weapons and clothing items. Following a number of attacks on Duke we now know that seven individual items can be stolen from him, those being Pinstripe Suit Trousers, Classic Fedora, Madball, Nail Bomb, Homemade Pocket Shotgun, Rheinmetall MG3 and a Duster.
At the time of writing on Monday the cheapest loot item available on the market was the Nail Bomb, which you can buy for $124-150 million from three individual sellers - Razzaonpc has sold one for $80 million too. There are 98 of these in circulation right now, and while its relatively high supply rate is likely the biggest contributor to its low price, Hildegarde's public post probably didn't help raise the Nail Bomb's value.
Pictured: A friendly alternative to nail bombs.
The next cheapest item is a pair of Duke's Pinstripe Suit Trousers, with these available for $1 billion as of Monday afternoon - another one was recently sold at auction for $308 million. There are only ten pairs of Duke's trousers in circulation right now, so they seem to be less frequently dropped than the Nail Bomb. We must all hope and pray that Duke doesn't drop his trousers more frequently in future - that newspaper article image was disgusting.
Strangely, the Classic Fedora has been priced much higher than the trousers at prices of $2.25 and $10 billion each by two individual sellers, despite there being twice as many Fedoras for sale, and a total of sixteen in circulation overall. However, we have been told that two fedoras have already been sold by HARDY and imSkyler for $200 million and $404 million respectively, so these prices are a little ambitious to say the least.
None of the remaining four items are currently up for sale on the item market at the time of writing, but we do know that outside of Duke's possession, there are three Homemade Pocket Shotguns, and just one Rheinmetall, Duster and Madball each - the latter was recently bought by Hildegarde from Bats for $1 billion at the auction house. These early circulation figures give us a vague idea of how rare and therefore valuable each of these items should be.
However, loot circulation also depends on how much restraint the citizens of Torn are able to display. Loot rarity is directly related to the frequency of attacks made against Duke - the less often he is assaulted, the more loot he'll pay out. Duke has been in hospital non-stop since looting was announced, so I expect we won't know what normal loot circulations will look like until the new baby smell wears off this feature. In the meantime, we'll probably have to make do with low-level common loot for at least a month or so.
XANAX
With vicoxan scammers increasing in number, the Xanax price seems to depend on how much these scoundrels list their Xans for, rather than the actual demand and supply from the public. The price fell from around $840,000 in March to $837,000 during the first half of April, and with everyone smoking cannabis during the 4/20 event, the price fell further to around $835,000 during the event.
The average Xanax price is now around $836,500. I see it going up to $838,000 during the next month as traders try to inflate the price back up - it may very well stay there if the vicoxan scammers continue their reign over the market. Whether Xanax will climb above $840,000 I do not know, but it certainly won't get above its 2018 price of $850,000 anytime soon.
Pictured: What happened when XXX Tentacion died.
CANS
25E and 30E can prices have increased by about $100k each. The relatively low increase in the number of red cow and tourine elite cans in circulation when compared to previous months suggests that more cans have been consumed than usual. Prices may have been increased due to a rise in users of the book Self Control is for Losers, which decreases all consumable cooldowns by 50% for 31 days, as fighters make the best use of this relatively peaceful time to train on books.
If more people start using this book then the price could increase even more so, as one has to consume upwards of 1,400 cans to maximize its utility. A rumored can-boosting event day planned for later in the year may increase prices further too, since this is one of the few items which hasn't been given a date-specific temporary buff yet.
FEATHERY HOTEL COUPONS
Feathery hotel coupons have seen a gradual decrease in price from $14.7mil in March down to about $14.5mil in April. I believe this to be a late aftereffect of the big war, since FHC prices have now dropped to just $100,000 above their pre-war valuation, and most likely will remain there, as they haven't fallen below $14mil since May of 2018.
BUSINESS CLASS TICKETS
Business Class Tickets have been consistently priced at just under $5 million throughout April, with this representing a small increase of about $100,000 from March's valuation - an odd occurrence, since the supply is greater than demand right now. Traders have been stocking up on business class tickets trying to increase their price artificially. However, I can only see the prices going down or at least remaining stable for the next few months, thanks to an ever increasing supply and comparatively lower demand.
The next predicted rise for Business Class Tickets will come in July, when World Tiger day allows players to hunt rare tigers and increase their hunting score twice as quickly. Players must fly to South Africa to achieve this, so we expect many will want to avoid the five-hour flight time to Jo'burg by purchasing BCT's in advance. We may see traders start buying up these tickets in bulk sometime during May.
Pictured: Pls don't shoot thx. K bye.
EROTIC DVDS
Erotic DVDs have seen a decrease in price from $4.85 million at the beginning of the month to $4.65 million at the time of writing. One reason for this is the ever increasing number of Adult Novelty companies, whose 3* special is the source of most erotic DVDs. Another reason is the 4/20 event, with EDVD users, who are usually stacking on energy using Xanax to train, taking Cannabis instead.
The proof of this is the fact that EDVD prices fell from $4.796 million to $4.71 million during the course of the 4/20 event, and they haven't recovered since. Traders seem to be pushing the prices below $4.7 million by selling their stocks at the moment, meaning that prices will likely remain stuck between $4.65-4.7 million for at least the next month.
MEDS
Small First Aid Kits have enjoyed two sharp increases over the past couple of months, as having first jumped from $20,500 to $23,600 in late March, they then fell to $21,200 before rising again to $24,683 on the 10th of April. Prices have now fallen again to $22,600, but they remain higher than usual due to the after-effects of these two recent bumps.
Without any particular event having caused these increases, we are forced to conclude that traders have manipulated the market by stocking up on small medical kits to sell at a higher price. First Aid Kits and Small First Aid kits tend to rise and fall in tandem, with prices for both gradually rising to an all-time average high in 2019. Yet despite this consistent trend, these two bumps only affected Small First Aid Kits.
Regular First Aid Kits saw a small increase in March from $33,500 to $36,500, and this is where they've remained ever since after a relatively flat start to the year. Elsewhere, Morphine has fallen by about $1,500 per hit over the past couple of weeks, but it has dipped like this several times over recent months, and it always returns to a valuation slightly above $50,000.
Most of the bloodbags have reduced in price throughout April too, as factions seem content to collect Easter Eggs and be peaceful. And with no dirty bombs or hoaxes of dirty bombs making the news, Neumune Tablets have fallen to $3,039,000, having been priced at nearly three times that in January. Neumune briefly went sub $3 million in April for the first time since DB's were re-enabled, but if war breaks out again, expect this graph to shoot back up like a mushroom cloud.
Interestingly, the graph for the amount of Cesium in Torn suggests this may be a possibility, as there have been three dirty bombs built this month, with a fourth in the making as soon as Rowdy_Rebel357 has bought up enough radioactive material. This could mean we're on the brink of a couple of faction wars in the not-so-distant future, which would in turn lead to an increase in the prices for meds and drugs to boot.
Pictured: The steps to destruction.
SUBMIT YOUR TIPS
Thank you to MeRocks for compiling this month's market report. If you have something to sell, feel free to contact MeRocks whenever he's online. He's a relatively new trader and you can find more details of what he sells here - https://www.torn.com/forums.php#/p=threads&f=10&t=16091741&b=0&a=0
In the meantime, please submit your tips on the market to Sugarvalves for next month's market report. We pay out a Donator Pack to all of those whose tips make it into the report, and there is also a haul of 250 points plus the reporter merit for any traders who wish to write May's market report too.
EASTER EGGS
The Easter egg hunt saw over 150,000 eggs spawned and collected over 21 days, making the egg market go crazy as a result. There was a brief surge in price of the rarer eggs around April 5th as impatient people strove to complete the set and obtain their merit, leading to some traders buying up the market to drive up the price.
However, as the competition went on, the price of eggs went through the floor as their supply increased. This happens in the aftermath of every Easter event, with egg prices recovering most of their lost value as the year unfolds. But as more and more players have joined Torn these recoveries have become less pronounced, as you can see from this White Easter egg graph which goes back to 2016.
Most of the eggs are now valued around 50% less than they were before the event. Clearly these prices will recover over the next twelve months, but I doubt they'll go beyond 75% of their pre-Easter value before the next hunt begins. Remember, most other candies are cheaper and give more happiness than eggs (except for the gold egg), so the only people who will buy them are those stocking up to sell next year at a higher price.
This is not an unwise tactic. In Torn, it always pays to be prepared and play the long game.
PLUSHIES, FLOWERS AND POINTS
There has been a great deal of analysis of the points market lately, so we'll keep this next entry short and sweet. Torn's continuously expanding playerbase shows no signs of slowing down, and the result is an ever-increasing number of players flying abroad to run plushies and flowers back for profit. As such, the price of these items has fallen since July last year, but a much sharper fall has been noticed since February.
May's Museum Day event on May 18th will likely compound this slump as it allows players to exchange plushies and flower sets at the Museum for 10% more points than usual. A small period of stabilisation may occur in the next week or so as traders stock up on these items ahead of an expected rise in demand, but once Museum Day has passed, the increased supply of plushies and flowers will see their value and that of points plummet further downhill - barring intervention from The Economist, that is.
DONATOR PACKS
The Donator Pack pawn shop price of $25.2 million has not changed for two months now, but an amendment from the Economist is expected imminently. Without his intervention, the DP price on the item market has remained low of late, with no one trader noticeably trying to play the market too much, and a consistent supply and demand flow having been in effect. I can only see DPs going up in the future once the pawn shop price increases, as I see no reason for the pawn shop price to decrease further.
CANNABIS
Bonus days like the recent 4/20 celebration offer traders a great opportunity to artificially increase item prices ahead of time to catch out unwitting buyers. This is precisely what happened this year, as after our previous market report mentioned the return of Cannabis Day, the drug's price increased from $10,444 on the 29th of March to $15,000 by the 1st of April.
Pictured: It would've been cheaper to smoke your money at these prices.
Cannabis remained at a consistent $15,490 until the 16th when other traders and players caught on and began stocking up themselves, boosting weed's price to a yearly high of $17,920 by the 18th. However, once the actual event started, overstocked traders began to list huge quantities of Cannabis - sometimes 20,000 at a time - at prices of $12,000 each, obliterating its market value in one fell swoop.
Once the event ended, the huge demand for cannabis fell, causing some traders to panic sell as low as $8,500. I believe Cannabis should return to its pre-4/20 price of $10,000 after a month or so, though, as once the traders have sold off their excess, people will have to rely on imported weed alone - something which is not run often due to its low profit margins.
DUKE LOOT
Last week's announcement that Duke could be looted for several unique items sparked excitement within the Torn community, with traders especially curious as to how much money could be made from reselling these rare weapons and clothing items. Following a number of attacks on Duke we now know that seven individual items can be stolen from him, those being Pinstripe Suit Trousers, Classic Fedora, Madball, Nail Bomb, Homemade Pocket Shotgun, Rheinmetall MG3 and a Duster.
At the time of writing on Monday the cheapest loot item available on the market was the Nail Bomb, which you can buy for $124-150 million from three individual sellers - Razzaonpc has sold one for $80 million too. There are 98 of these in circulation right now, and while its relatively high supply rate is likely the biggest contributor to its low price, Hildegarde's public post probably didn't help raise the Nail Bomb's value.
Pictured: A friendly alternative to nail bombs.
The next cheapest item is a pair of Duke's Pinstripe Suit Trousers, with these available for $1 billion as of Monday afternoon - another one was recently sold at auction for $308 million. There are only ten pairs of Duke's trousers in circulation right now, so they seem to be less frequently dropped than the Nail Bomb. We must all hope and pray that Duke doesn't drop his trousers more frequently in future - that newspaper article image was disgusting.
Strangely, the Classic Fedora has been priced much higher than the trousers at prices of $2.25 and $10 billion each by two individual sellers, despite there being twice as many Fedoras for sale, and a total of sixteen in circulation overall. However, we have been told that two fedoras have already been sold by HARDY and imSkyler for $200 million and $404 million respectively, so these prices are a little ambitious to say the least.
None of the remaining four items are currently up for sale on the item market at the time of writing, but we do know that outside of Duke's possession, there are three Homemade Pocket Shotguns, and just one Rheinmetall, Duster and Madball each - the latter was recently bought by Hildegarde from Bats for $1 billion at the auction house. These early circulation figures give us a vague idea of how rare and therefore valuable each of these items should be.
However, loot circulation also depends on how much restraint the citizens of Torn are able to display. Loot rarity is directly related to the frequency of attacks made against Duke - the less often he is assaulted, the more loot he'll pay out. Duke has been in hospital non-stop since looting was announced, so I expect we won't know what normal loot circulations will look like until the new baby smell wears off this feature. In the meantime, we'll probably have to make do with low-level common loot for at least a month or so.
XANAX
With vicoxan scammers increasing in number, the Xanax price seems to depend on how much these scoundrels list their Xans for, rather than the actual demand and supply from the public. The price fell from around $840,000 in March to $837,000 during the first half of April, and with everyone smoking cannabis during the 4/20 event, the price fell further to around $835,000 during the event.
The average Xanax price is now around $836,500. I see it going up to $838,000 during the next month as traders try to inflate the price back up - it may very well stay there if the vicoxan scammers continue their reign over the market. Whether Xanax will climb above $840,000 I do not know, but it certainly won't get above its 2018 price of $850,000 anytime soon.
Pictured: What happened when XXX Tentacion died.
CANS
25E and 30E can prices have increased by about $100k each. The relatively low increase in the number of red cow and tourine elite cans in circulation when compared to previous months suggests that more cans have been consumed than usual. Prices may have been increased due to a rise in users of the book Self Control is for Losers, which decreases all consumable cooldowns by 50% for 31 days, as fighters make the best use of this relatively peaceful time to train on books.
If more people start using this book then the price could increase even more so, as one has to consume upwards of 1,400 cans to maximize its utility. A rumored can-boosting event day planned for later in the year may increase prices further too, since this is one of the few items which hasn't been given a date-specific temporary buff yet.
FEATHERY HOTEL COUPONS
Feathery hotel coupons have seen a gradual decrease in price from $14.7mil in March down to about $14.5mil in April. I believe this to be a late aftereffect of the big war, since FHC prices have now dropped to just $100,000 above their pre-war valuation, and most likely will remain there, as they haven't fallen below $14mil since May of 2018.
BUSINESS CLASS TICKETS
Business Class Tickets have been consistently priced at just under $5 million throughout April, with this representing a small increase of about $100,000 from March's valuation - an odd occurrence, since the supply is greater than demand right now. Traders have been stocking up on business class tickets trying to increase their price artificially. However, I can only see the prices going down or at least remaining stable for the next few months, thanks to an ever increasing supply and comparatively lower demand.
The next predicted rise for Business Class Tickets will come in July, when World Tiger day allows players to hunt rare tigers and increase their hunting score twice as quickly. Players must fly to South Africa to achieve this, so we expect many will want to avoid the five-hour flight time to Jo'burg by purchasing BCT's in advance. We may see traders start buying up these tickets in bulk sometime during May.
Pictured: Pls don't shoot thx. K bye.
EROTIC DVDS
Erotic DVDs have seen a decrease in price from $4.85 million at the beginning of the month to $4.65 million at the time of writing. One reason for this is the ever increasing number of Adult Novelty companies, whose 3* special is the source of most erotic DVDs. Another reason is the 4/20 event, with EDVD users, who are usually stacking on energy using Xanax to train, taking Cannabis instead.
The proof of this is the fact that EDVD prices fell from $4.796 million to $4.71 million during the course of the 4/20 event, and they haven't recovered since. Traders seem to be pushing the prices below $4.7 million by selling their stocks at the moment, meaning that prices will likely remain stuck between $4.65-4.7 million for at least the next month.
MEDS
Small First Aid Kits have enjoyed two sharp increases over the past couple of months, as having first jumped from $20,500 to $23,600 in late March, they then fell to $21,200 before rising again to $24,683 on the 10th of April. Prices have now fallen again to $22,600, but they remain higher than usual due to the after-effects of these two recent bumps.
Without any particular event having caused these increases, we are forced to conclude that traders have manipulated the market by stocking up on small medical kits to sell at a higher price. First Aid Kits and Small First Aid kits tend to rise and fall in tandem, with prices for both gradually rising to an all-time average high in 2019. Yet despite this consistent trend, these two bumps only affected Small First Aid Kits.
Regular First Aid Kits saw a small increase in March from $33,500 to $36,500, and this is where they've remained ever since after a relatively flat start to the year. Elsewhere, Morphine has fallen by about $1,500 per hit over the past couple of weeks, but it has dipped like this several times over recent months, and it always returns to a valuation slightly above $50,000.
Most of the bloodbags have reduced in price throughout April too, as factions seem content to collect Easter Eggs and be peaceful. And with no dirty bombs or hoaxes of dirty bombs making the news, Neumune Tablets have fallen to $3,039,000, having been priced at nearly three times that in January. Neumune briefly went sub $3 million in April for the first time since DB's were re-enabled, but if war breaks out again, expect this graph to shoot back up like a mushroom cloud.
Interestingly, the graph for the amount of Cesium in Torn suggests this may be a possibility, as there have been three dirty bombs built this month, with a fourth in the making as soon as Rowdy_Rebel357 has bought up enough radioactive material. This could mean we're on the brink of a couple of faction wars in the not-so-distant future, which would in turn lead to an increase in the prices for meds and drugs to boot.
Pictured: The steps to destruction.
SUBMIT YOUR TIPS
Thank you to MeRocks for compiling this month's market report. If you have something to sell, feel free to contact MeRocks whenever he's online. He's a relatively new trader and you can find more details of what he sells here - https://www.torn.com/forums.php#/p=threads&f=10&t=16091741&b=0&a=0
In the meantime, please submit your tips on the market to Sugarvalves for next month's market report. We pay out a Donator Pack to all of those whose tips make it into the report, and there is also a haul of 250 points plus the reporter merit for any traders who wish to write May's market report too.
Original article
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