sugarvalves [1963573] —
Original article
Points stabilise after year-long slump. First Logistics company Contraband hauls revealed. Energy and happy supplies set to rise in price, as are Beer Kegs and Business Class Tickets.
July is one of the busiest months in terms of Torn booster events, with two running this month and another coming at the beginning of August. Some traders are already preparing for the eventual demand these events will create, while others are attempting to make sense of the latest changes to the pawn shop point price. Either way, July will be a hectic month for both traders and customers, so if you want to save yourself some dosh this summer, read our June Market Report.
POINTS STABILISE
After twelve months of constant depreciation, the price of points finally settled last month, with a value of $46,600 remaining in place for most of June. Iribuya told the Times that "The pawn shop had one reduction in buybacks, but that was not major enough for people to panic. I've been personally selling for 2 weeks straight now for $46,600 per point."
Following this welcome plateau, the price of points began to rise towards the end of the month, meaning that July started with an average market price of $47,933. So what is the reason for this sudden stall? Why have point prices been falling for so long? How much mayonnaise is too much mayonnaise? And what might happen next? To answer three of these questions, let's hear directly from Torn's economist on the matter.
So there you have it. There have been more points on the market than usual over the past year, and this has led to a gradual decrease in their average market price. However, in response to the recent plateau, the price the pawn shop pays for points was raised by $2.5k. Contrary to what some people assume, the economist doesn't directly control this value as he does with Donator Pack buybacks. The price the pawn shop pays for points is determined by the economy and the activities of players - it fluctuates automatically - so the recent increase in what Felix demands came as a result of the market point price drop levelling off.
The initial downwards trend which began a year ago was almost certainly caused by an increase in Torn's playerbase (BUILD THE WALL) as more players were able to acquire more points with which to flood the market. And if you look at the city graphs, the levelling off of point sales correlates with a similar trend seen in the number of daily users, which reached 30,000 in May but hasn't continued to increase as it did earlier in the year.
Pictured: Tear down that wall!
The pawn shop price is currently $48,387, with the lowest price we could find on the market being $48,800. As indicated in the earlier quote, our economist suggests that if prices continue to increase over the next few days, this will be due to macroeconomic market trends - I think that means we should replace carbs with chia seeds or something. With this data now being made public, perhaps it will help to allay the fears of some citizens who have accused the Torn authorities of manipulating the economy for their own gain.
In mid-June, a post by Wollongong on the newly amended banking system generated a number of interesting (salty) replies, including one from CRLF which accused Chedburn of draining Torn cash from the economy by killing various markets, including points, in order to force players to spend more of their real life cash. Chedburn's response in the forums was direct:
"We frequently manipulate the pawn shop price of donator packs for optimal donation levels, but that's where it ends in terms of consciously increasing income. Everything else is entirely focused on keeping the economy healthy and ensuring a consistent rate of inflation. This has always been the case so it would be nice to have a little more faith / trust from players."
He went on to say that Torn's financial state is healthy enough to avoid him having to chase earnings, meaning that decisions on the financial sector will always be made with a healthy economy as his first priority. So there.
BLOOD BAGS
The World Blood Donation Day event ran from the 13th to the 15th of June, with players able to draw blood more efficiently thanks to a 50% reduction in cooldowns and life penalties. But how did this affect the price of Bloods and Empty Blood Bags on the item market? Iribuya explains:
"The event had the effect that was predicted - a 10% temporary increase on empty blood bags. The only thing that I was surprised is that it's not gone back to the price before the event. Before the event, the price hovered around $17,800 and after the event, it's been hovering above $18,000."
As you can see, the price of Empty Blood Bags spiked on the day we reminded players of the donation day event, but it had been growing for a few weeks due to many players being already aware thanks to the calendar feature. Mid-way through the event on the 14th the value of Empty Blood Bags dipped, as expected, as everyone seemingly had enough to make do with. However, as Iribuya pointed out, their price then rose to a position higher than their recent monthly average.
The past few days have seen a slight price dip take place, but it remains to be seen whether this will reverse the trend and lower item market blood bag prices - bazaar traders can be seen hawking them for $18,500 at the moment.
Pictured: You can fill them up with juice if you wash them out.
As you might expect, there are now more blood packs in circulation than there were before this event, but this hasn't had a huge effect on the price of every type. 36,000 more bags of O-Positive entered the market during blood day compared to 2,000 over a usual 48-hour period, but somehow this type managed to gain value during the event, before dropping slightly after.
A-Positive was more predictable, as this type depreciated in price when 33,000 further bags were added. B-Positive, O-Negative, A-Negative and AB-Negative all experienced small drops, but nothing major given there were only a few thousand more bags in circulation of each. AB-Positive and B-Negative actually increased in price, despite 2-3,000 more of each type joining the market.
ENERGY AND HAPPY SUPPLIES TO RISE IN PRICE?
From noon on the 10th of July until noon on the 12th, Torn City will celebrate World Population Day, with this event previously known to provide an xp boost to citizens in return for them leaving players on the street after an attack. Based on this knowledge, Iribuya suggests a small increase in the price of energy and happy-boosting items may occur.
"There might be a small increase in cans / xanax / fhc / points for population day (3x XP for leaving), but I doubt it because rich people don't really care about leveling."
As the evil puppetmaster behind Torn's event days, I can exclusively reveal that this year's event will be broader in scope than usual, so more people may take part than previously expected. Details of the new World Population Day event will be released by this newspaper next Monday, but I predict that the changes made could inspire several factions to organise activities to allow their members to benefit as much as possible.
While Iribuya is correct that rich players don't care about levelling, younger players do, so small factions / sub-factions hosting newcomers may wish to prepare in advance of this event, as might individual players themselves. This means our supplies of Xanax, Cans, Erotic DVDs and Feathery Hotel Coupons could be hit in anticipation. The recent newspaper article and forum chatter regarding Elimination could add some further pressure onto the market for these items, as players begin to prepare for September's main event. With that in mind, let's take a look at the recent trends for each of these items individually.
XANAX RECOVERS
Lil Xans are enjoying a recovery of late, with their price rocketing during June from a limp $834k to a throbbing $837k today. Several bazaars were seen with hundred-fold stocks of Xanax priced at $849,865 on Monday morning, but I saw the same sellers reduce their prices to $839,990 earlier today. However, prices may rise again if the influence of the event day and Elimination are as pronounced as we believe, and Xanax's value could soon sail north of $840k for the first time since March.
CANS
The collapse of the can market in the last quarter of 2018 hit many sellers hard, with some brands losing as much as 1/4th of their price between September and Christmas. But are the green shoots of recovery finally starting to sprout? Iribuya thinks so.
"They have spiked up hard. On the large cans, $100,000 was added in a matter of days and that has kept up high."
Over the entire month, this increase is even more pronounced, with X-Mass having gained $169k and Taurine $160k. Red Cow and Rockstar Rudolph added $86k and $107k respectively, with Munster and Santa Shooters the only cans to have bucked this trend - their prices fell in the first half of June, only to restore their original value in the second half.
FEATHERY HOTEL COUPONS
FHC's dropped continuously from February through to the beginning of June, but as Iribuya notes, their latest valuation has been quite predictable.
"Price has been very stable. 14m can be spotted on the market but will be sniped fast. Stable price of 14.1m - 14.3m."
September sometimes sees a rise in FHC prices take place, but our increased population and a denser calendar of events may result in a higher spike than normal, with some hotel-hungry players boosting the price throughout July and August while everyone else is busy ogling Mr and Ms Torn.
EROTIC DVDs
Torn's quota of chicken chokers will have been disappointed of late, as June's plateau trend also extended to Erotic DVDs. Pornos saw their five-month price drop end during May, and with no further falls having taken place during June, this reporter is willing to stick his sunburnt neck out and predict that their valuation will soon rise as a result of forthcoming events - or the fact we've speculated wildly about them doing so.
WORLD TIGER DAY
Pictured: A soon to be dead Tiger idiot.
July is one of the few months which hosts two separate event days, with World Tiger Day allowing players to hunt said beast in South Africa and potentially acquire a $25k reward - the highest amount available. This late-month event also increases the number of hunting skill points one can acquire from performing hunting activities, and based on this, the Torn City Times' resident crossword wizard ArttiIsGod believes BCTs may become more expensive.
"Business Class Ticket prices likely to rise for the world hunting day I believe. MightyGoober made tutorial also, and soon Iribuya forum post to discuss will also raise the prices."
Iribuya agrees with this prediction, and he believes BCTs will go up by 10-20% due to their usefulness when hunting. BCTs reduce your travel time by 70%, meaning the usual 4 hour 57 minute trip to Johannesburg (the longest in the game) will only take 1 hour 29 minutes. The value of these tickets has risen by a million since mid-June, and as ArttiLsGod suggests, the valuable hunting skill guide posted by MightyGoober likely played a large part in the increased demand we've seen since.
Iribuya's anticipated post in General Discussion this morning will have drawn attention to the hunting event further, but we expect the biggest price rises to take place in the days prior. BCT valuations have hovered between $4.9 and $5 million throughout 2019, having experienced a rather lean year compared to 2017 and 2018 when prices were $1-1.5 million higher. BCTs increased in value to $8.8 million on the 22nd of July last year - one week prior to the event - before shooting up to $14 million on the 26th. Business Class Tickets would, therefore, make for an excellent short-term investment opportunity if you can get your hands on a few quickly. Maybe mug a pilot or something, I don't know.
BEER BUBBLES TO THE SURFACE
Having successfully predicted that Iribuya would post something about BCTs in General Discussion, ArttiIsGod also suggested that beer prices would rise when he posts something about International Beer Day later this month too. Beer Day, like all events, will run for 48 hours, taking place from the 1st-3rd of August this year, providing a 5x boost to the nerve effects of all beer items.
We can expect prices of individual beers and beer kegs to rise considerably between now and August / Iribuya's forum post. However, as Torn's resident bug-swatter Bug notes, these items have gained some value already.
"Beer prices seem to have risen recently. Likely not important for established players, but has a larger effect on newbies."
Bottle of Beer
Keg of Beer
As the above graphs show, the rise seems to have trailed off for individual bottles of beer, whereas Kegs look to be on an upwards trajectory. A quick glance at the yearly graphs shows that 2018's beer day resulted in bottles adding $50 to their price of $758, whereas Kegs added $1.3 million to their price of $13.7 million. However, given the confusing nature of last year's newspaper announcement - an article laden with role play - one wonders whether most people knew what the hell was going on.
A clearer announcement regarding International Beer Day is expected towards the end of July, and this may generate a larger price spike than last year. It is deemed likely that no major changes will be made to Beer Day.
FOREIGN GOODS
Booty Bay Cargo and The Pony Express have become the first Logistics Management companies to unlock Contraband, the seven-star special which grants players a shipment of foreign items in return for 50 job points. It is still too early to predict exactly what effect this special will have on the market, but you would be advised to follow Scalper's thread to see what kind of items are being earned from this perk.
Scalper, who runs a six-star Logistics Company, has compiled a list of the items received so far, which as of Tuesday morning consisted of the following:
That being said, the use of the E-DVD price to calculate the value of a job point is flawed. There are various specials which pay out items and money, and the Erotic DVD is known to offer one of the best returns for job points, so perhaps it isn't much use as a marker. When questioned on the value of job points, Chedburn indicated that some firms pay between $2.5-5k per point via their cash payout specials, whereas others offer as much as $14k. If we take an average of about $10k per job point, this gives us a figure of just $500k as a price for the Contraband special, which now makes it look incredibly good value for money.
Scalper's survey is still in its early days, with just eight shipments listed so far. As such, the Contraband perk may turn out to be more worthwhile than it presently seems, but these early results suggest it certainly won't be overpowered as some believed.
WRITE THE NEXT REPORT
Are you an active trader with an eye on the markets? Then contact Sugarvalves today and offer your services in writing the next month's Market Report. This month's report was compiled from contributions by Iribuya, ArttiIsGod, WALL_St, Bug and Scalper.
POINTS STABILISE
After twelve months of constant depreciation, the price of points finally settled last month, with a value of $46,600 remaining in place for most of June. Iribuya told the Times that "The pawn shop had one reduction in buybacks, but that was not major enough for people to panic. I've been personally selling for 2 weeks straight now for $46,600 per point."
Following this welcome plateau, the price of points began to rise towards the end of the month, meaning that July started with an average market price of $47,933. So what is the reason for this sudden stall? Why have point prices been falling for so long? How much mayonnaise is too much mayonnaise? And what might happen next? To answer three of these questions, let's hear directly from Torn's economist on the matter.
So there you have it. There have been more points on the market than usual over the past year, and this has led to a gradual decrease in their average market price. However, in response to the recent plateau, the price the pawn shop pays for points was raised by $2.5k. Contrary to what some people assume, the economist doesn't directly control this value as he does with Donator Pack buybacks. The price the pawn shop pays for points is determined by the economy and the activities of players - it fluctuates automatically - so the recent increase in what Felix demands came as a result of the market point price drop levelling off.
The initial downwards trend which began a year ago was almost certainly caused by an increase in Torn's playerbase (BUILD THE WALL) as more players were able to acquire more points with which to flood the market. And if you look at the city graphs, the levelling off of point sales correlates with a similar trend seen in the number of daily users, which reached 30,000 in May but hasn't continued to increase as it did earlier in the year.
Pictured: Tear down that wall!
The pawn shop price is currently $48,387, with the lowest price we could find on the market being $48,800. As indicated in the earlier quote, our economist suggests that if prices continue to increase over the next few days, this will be due to macroeconomic market trends - I think that means we should replace carbs with chia seeds or something. With this data now being made public, perhaps it will help to allay the fears of some citizens who have accused the Torn authorities of manipulating the economy for their own gain.
In mid-June, a post by Wollongong on the newly amended banking system generated a number of interesting (salty) replies, including one from CRLF which accused Chedburn of draining Torn cash from the economy by killing various markets, including points, in order to force players to spend more of their real life cash. Chedburn's response in the forums was direct:
"We frequently manipulate the pawn shop price of donator packs for optimal donation levels, but that's where it ends in terms of consciously increasing income. Everything else is entirely focused on keeping the economy healthy and ensuring a consistent rate of inflation. This has always been the case so it would be nice to have a little more faith / trust from players."
He went on to say that Torn's financial state is healthy enough to avoid him having to chase earnings, meaning that decisions on the financial sector will always be made with a healthy economy as his first priority. So there.
BLOOD BAGS
The World Blood Donation Day event ran from the 13th to the 15th of June, with players able to draw blood more efficiently thanks to a 50% reduction in cooldowns and life penalties. But how did this affect the price of Bloods and Empty Blood Bags on the item market? Iribuya explains:
"The event had the effect that was predicted - a 10% temporary increase on empty blood bags. The only thing that I was surprised is that it's not gone back to the price before the event. Before the event, the price hovered around $17,800 and after the event, it's been hovering above $18,000."
As you can see, the price of Empty Blood Bags spiked on the day we reminded players of the donation day event, but it had been growing for a few weeks due to many players being already aware thanks to the calendar feature. Mid-way through the event on the 14th the value of Empty Blood Bags dipped, as expected, as everyone seemingly had enough to make do with. However, as Iribuya pointed out, their price then rose to a position higher than their recent monthly average.
The past few days have seen a slight price dip take place, but it remains to be seen whether this will reverse the trend and lower item market blood bag prices - bazaar traders can be seen hawking them for $18,500 at the moment.
Pictured: You can fill them up with juice if you wash them out.
As you might expect, there are now more blood packs in circulation than there were before this event, but this hasn't had a huge effect on the price of every type. 36,000 more bags of O-Positive entered the market during blood day compared to 2,000 over a usual 48-hour period, but somehow this type managed to gain value during the event, before dropping slightly after.
A-Positive was more predictable, as this type depreciated in price when 33,000 further bags were added. B-Positive, O-Negative, A-Negative and AB-Negative all experienced small drops, but nothing major given there were only a few thousand more bags in circulation of each. AB-Positive and B-Negative actually increased in price, despite 2-3,000 more of each type joining the market.
ENERGY AND HAPPY SUPPLIES TO RISE IN PRICE?
From noon on the 10th of July until noon on the 12th, Torn City will celebrate World Population Day, with this event previously known to provide an xp boost to citizens in return for them leaving players on the street after an attack. Based on this knowledge, Iribuya suggests a small increase in the price of energy and happy-boosting items may occur.
"There might be a small increase in cans / xanax / fhc / points for population day (3x XP for leaving), but I doubt it because rich people don't really care about leveling."
As the evil puppetmaster behind Torn's event days, I can exclusively reveal that this year's event will be broader in scope than usual, so more people may take part than previously expected. Details of the new World Population Day event will be released by this newspaper next Monday, but I predict that the changes made could inspire several factions to organise activities to allow their members to benefit as much as possible.
While Iribuya is correct that rich players don't care about levelling, younger players do, so small factions / sub-factions hosting newcomers may wish to prepare in advance of this event, as might individual players themselves. This means our supplies of Xanax, Cans, Erotic DVDs and Feathery Hotel Coupons could be hit in anticipation. The recent newspaper article and forum chatter regarding Elimination could add some further pressure onto the market for these items, as players begin to prepare for September's main event. With that in mind, let's take a look at the recent trends for each of these items individually.
XANAX RECOVERS
Lil Xans are enjoying a recovery of late, with their price rocketing during June from a limp $834k to a throbbing $837k today. Several bazaars were seen with hundred-fold stocks of Xanax priced at $849,865 on Monday morning, but I saw the same sellers reduce their prices to $839,990 earlier today. However, prices may rise again if the influence of the event day and Elimination are as pronounced as we believe, and Xanax's value could soon sail north of $840k for the first time since March.
CANS
The collapse of the can market in the last quarter of 2018 hit many sellers hard, with some brands losing as much as 1/4th of their price between September and Christmas. But are the green shoots of recovery finally starting to sprout? Iribuya thinks so.
"They have spiked up hard. On the large cans, $100,000 was added in a matter of days and that has kept up high."
Over the entire month, this increase is even more pronounced, with X-Mass having gained $169k and Taurine $160k. Red Cow and Rockstar Rudolph added $86k and $107k respectively, with Munster and Santa Shooters the only cans to have bucked this trend - their prices fell in the first half of June, only to restore their original value in the second half.
FEATHERY HOTEL COUPONS
FHC's dropped continuously from February through to the beginning of June, but as Iribuya notes, their latest valuation has been quite predictable.
"Price has been very stable. 14m can be spotted on the market but will be sniped fast. Stable price of 14.1m - 14.3m."
September sometimes sees a rise in FHC prices take place, but our increased population and a denser calendar of events may result in a higher spike than normal, with some hotel-hungry players boosting the price throughout July and August while everyone else is busy ogling Mr and Ms Torn.
EROTIC DVDs
Torn's quota of chicken chokers will have been disappointed of late, as June's plateau trend also extended to Erotic DVDs. Pornos saw their five-month price drop end during May, and with no further falls having taken place during June, this reporter is willing to stick his sunburnt neck out and predict that their valuation will soon rise as a result of forthcoming events - or the fact we've speculated wildly about them doing so.
WORLD TIGER DAY
Pictured: A soon to be dead Tiger idiot.
July is one of the few months which hosts two separate event days, with World Tiger Day allowing players to hunt said beast in South Africa and potentially acquire a $25k reward - the highest amount available. This late-month event also increases the number of hunting skill points one can acquire from performing hunting activities, and based on this, the Torn City Times' resident crossword wizard ArttiIsGod believes BCTs may become more expensive.
"Business Class Ticket prices likely to rise for the world hunting day I believe. MightyGoober made tutorial also, and soon Iribuya forum post to discuss will also raise the prices."
Iribuya agrees with this prediction, and he believes BCTs will go up by 10-20% due to their usefulness when hunting. BCTs reduce your travel time by 70%, meaning the usual 4 hour 57 minute trip to Johannesburg (the longest in the game) will only take 1 hour 29 minutes. The value of these tickets has risen by a million since mid-June, and as ArttiLsGod suggests, the valuable hunting skill guide posted by MightyGoober likely played a large part in the increased demand we've seen since.
Iribuya's anticipated post in General Discussion this morning will have drawn attention to the hunting event further, but we expect the biggest price rises to take place in the days prior. BCT valuations have hovered between $4.9 and $5 million throughout 2019, having experienced a rather lean year compared to 2017 and 2018 when prices were $1-1.5 million higher. BCTs increased in value to $8.8 million on the 22nd of July last year - one week prior to the event - before shooting up to $14 million on the 26th. Business Class Tickets would, therefore, make for an excellent short-term investment opportunity if you can get your hands on a few quickly. Maybe mug a pilot or something, I don't know.
BEER BUBBLES TO THE SURFACE
Having successfully predicted that Iribuya would post something about BCTs in General Discussion, ArttiIsGod also suggested that beer prices would rise when he posts something about International Beer Day later this month too. Beer Day, like all events, will run for 48 hours, taking place from the 1st-3rd of August this year, providing a 5x boost to the nerve effects of all beer items.
We can expect prices of individual beers and beer kegs to rise considerably between now and August / Iribuya's forum post. However, as Torn's resident bug-swatter Bug notes, these items have gained some value already.
"Beer prices seem to have risen recently. Likely not important for established players, but has a larger effect on newbies."
Bottle of Beer
Keg of Beer
As the above graphs show, the rise seems to have trailed off for individual bottles of beer, whereas Kegs look to be on an upwards trajectory. A quick glance at the yearly graphs shows that 2018's beer day resulted in bottles adding $50 to their price of $758, whereas Kegs added $1.3 million to their price of $13.7 million. However, given the confusing nature of last year's newspaper announcement - an article laden with role play - one wonders whether most people knew what the hell was going on.
A clearer announcement regarding International Beer Day is expected towards the end of July, and this may generate a larger price spike than last year. It is deemed likely that no major changes will be made to Beer Day.
FOREIGN GOODS
Booty Bay Cargo and The Pony Express have become the first Logistics Management companies to unlock Contraband, the seven-star special which grants players a shipment of foreign items in return for 50 job points. It is still too early to predict exactly what effect this special will have on the market, but you would be advised to follow Scalper's thread to see what kind of items are being earned from this perk.
Scalper, who runs a six-star Logistics Company, has compiled a list of the items received so far, which as of Tuesday morning consisted of the following:
- 100 Monkey Plushies ($4,850,000)
- 50 Flippers ($400,000)
- 50 Sports Shades ($550,000)
- 25 Fire Hydrants ($625,000)
- 100 African Violets ($7,000,000)
- 35 Camel Plushies ($3,360,000)
- 10 Ecstasy ($750,000)
- 10 LSD ($580,000)
That being said, the use of the E-DVD price to calculate the value of a job point is flawed. There are various specials which pay out items and money, and the Erotic DVD is known to offer one of the best returns for job points, so perhaps it isn't much use as a marker. When questioned on the value of job points, Chedburn indicated that some firms pay between $2.5-5k per point via their cash payout specials, whereas others offer as much as $14k. If we take an average of about $10k per job point, this gives us a figure of just $500k as a price for the Contraband special, which now makes it look incredibly good value for money.
Scalper's survey is still in its early days, with just eight shipments listed so far. As such, the Contraband perk may turn out to be more worthwhile than it presently seems, but these early results suggest it certainly won't be overpowered as some believed.
WRITE THE NEXT REPORT
Are you an active trader with an eye on the markets? Then contact Sugarvalves today and offer your services in writing the next month's Market Report. This month's report was compiled from contributions by Iribuya, ArttiIsGod, WALL_St, Bug and Scalper.
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