sugarvalves [1963573] —
Original article
How will Elimination affect item prices? Why are Temporary Weapons such a good investment? And why might the points market crash again in late-September? Read on to find out all this and more!
August has been an interesting month for traders, with the release of the Economic Report providing them with a useful tool to analyse stats and assist in decision making. But considering the imminent arrival of Elimination, an event day and some secret shenanigans, September could prove to be rather eventful too. So let's take a look at what's happened lately and what traders should be looking out for over the coming month in August's piping hot Market Report.
XANAX POLEAXED
Xanax reached a 3-month peak of $838k on July 1st, only to fall to a 2-year low of $832k in mid-August. Its price has recovered somewhat to a stable $834k, but according to last year's trends, we can expect a price rise around mid-September, when idiots realise they haven't bought as much Xanax as they needed. In 2018, this rise was quickly followed by the kind of slump your dad enjoys after doing the hoovering for the first time in years. And if history repeats itself, we could see Xanax drop to its lowest price of 2019.
Trader Iribuya believes one reason for the instability in the price of Xanax is that Vicoxan scammers are no longer able to pull their dastardly ruse. Thanks to the recent warning message which displays when players are about to pay more than market price for an item, fewer traders are out there pricing Xanax at below-average prices.
Ironically, this has destabilised the market price of Xanax slightly, with a drop in value noted shortly after the warning announcement was made. But in the context of preventing scammers, this isn't necessarily a bad thing - or much of a thing at all, according to Iribuya.
"Xanax is not really an item that will change much. Sure a 10k swing from week to week can happen, but that's still only a 1% change. People use 3 Xanax / day to train, people use 3 Xanax a day to hit in elimination. Not much will change in their price I expect."
So is there any opportunity to make money on Xanax with Elimination so close? SinCitySinner doesn't think so, as he believes that "Everyone that will use Xanax already has Xanax." Conversely, ORAN suggests that while "it may not hit the last year's 850k level... 840k is definitely possible and a lot of people have invested into Xanax so they may also try to buy out so theirs sell for higher."
KITTED OUT
The prices of Small and regular First Aid Kits have both increased by roughly $10,000 since this time last year, but their rise has not been stable by any means. SFAKs look to be on a slight upward trend after their late June fall and are expected to enjoy a brief but significant rise in early September.
The same trend is predicted for regular FAKs, but their price history has been one of constant losses over the past few months, with mid-August's $1.5k price rise ending a slow, downward trend which started back in April. ORAN says he's seen some traders with 5k hauls of Aid Kits, meaning that the timing and size of their eventual price rise could be determined by a handful of savvy sellers.
Morphine's trends are a little more interesting. Like First Aid Kits, Morphine tends to rise in early September, but in some instances - last year especially - it has been known to retain an inflated valuation long after Elimination has ended. Morphine enjoyed a bumper start to the year, hitting as high as $51.7k in March before enduring a slump in late April - although this was nothing compared to what happened over Christmas.
The drug now seems to be sitting a little below its typical value, so any gains it makes over the next month may become permanent. Iribuya expects the price of most medical items to rise slightly during Elimination, but not by much. SinCitySinner agrees with this assessment but feels there may be money to be made in Blood Bags. So let's find out which types he feels are on the up.
BAG EM UP
"Some Factions limit access to their Med Armory during Elimination for those taking part which might increase market action, but I don't see any real opportunity in the 'basic' meds. Some of the blood bags are attractive based on last year's info (all of the '+' as well as A- ). Some saw 10-15k increases last year, would give 30-50% returns based on current prices."
SinCitySinner kindly provided his observations on Blood Bag prices from last year's Elimination. Based on the data below, it initially seems that there's good money to be made on AB-, with a price rise of over $50k potentially forthcoming. But AB- is the rarest blood type in Torn as it can only be used by AB- and AB+ people. Therefore, it may be more profitable to try and flip large quantities of A+ and O+ bloods, which are the most popular types in Torn - the latter is also compatible with roughly 75% of the population.
2018 Blood Price Changes During Elimination
A+ +8k
B+ +11k
O+ +11k
AB+ No change
A- +17k
B- No change
O- +17k
AB- +50k
Pictured: Sweet profit running through your veins.
FEATHERY HOTEL COUPONS
FHCs have lost around $750k in value over the past six months, and while a brief upturn in August seemed to reverse this trend, prices have now continued to fall once more, hovering just north of $14m at the time of writing. However, the beginning of last year's Elimination saw just under $1m added to their price within ten days, and while that may sound promising at first, investors should be cautious.
The imminent arrival of 2017's Elimination competition added $2million to the price of FHCs back then, as did 2016's event, which marked the first iteration of this competition. This means that 2018's FHC price rise was the lowest yet, which could be a sign that 2019's rise will also be low, especially as their base price is quite weak to begin with. Of course, this trend could be bucked due to the fact that there are more players in Torn today. However, the total number of Elimination participants is and has always been limited to 12,000, so any population changes may be moot.
Our last Market Report saw Iribuya predict that FHCs would soon rise to $14.3m as Elimination approached. This increase has not yet occurred. While this item is indeed a good investment given that it is relatively cheap at the moment, don't bank on immediate returns from Feathery Hotel Coupons in the short term - but Iribuya is still hopeful.
"Yes, I made the mistake in investing in FHC. I expected their price to slowly go up for Elimination, but the FHG Benefit Block is so cheap on the market currently that more players own it, so the supply of FHC's on the market has been higher. I still expect FHC to go to my earlier predicted price, but maybe that's just my wishful thinking."
ABCDEFGHIKJLM isn't so hopeful, as having looked at last year's graph, he says he "would not be confident in investing in these anymore." SinCitySinner also notes the lower returns given by last year's price trends and suggests that the only people selling should be those who got them from the FHG Benefit Block.
Finally, ORAN's claim that "some people have hundreds of these so they can print monies during Elimination" means the FHC market will certainly be saturated when the event begins. He feels that prices are unlikely to crash, though, and that much depends on whether those with large stocks are willing to hold for profit or cut their losses and get out.
TEMPORARY WEAPONS
SinCitySinner's Elimination Guide mentioned that Temporary Weapons such as Pepper Spray and Tear Gas are must-have items for new players taking part in the competition. So has anyone paid attention to this advice? The price of Tear Gas has indeed risen dramatically in August, with roughly $2k added to its price this month, even taking into account a brief dip a few days ago. But that's nothing compared to the $20k they gained between the 30th of August and the 12th of September last year.
Pepper Spray has enjoyed a less productive month, and it will end August slightly below the price at which it began. Elimination typically adds about $100 onto the valuation of these items, which is barely worth it if you're a trader, but a more significant if you're a new player looking to stock up. Flash Grenades look a better bet for investment, as like Tear Gas, they tend to add about $20k during the first few days of Elimination. But you'll have to buy them up quickly, as FGs seem to be on the cusp of a rise at the moment.
Smoke Grenades are also predicted to enjoy a similar amount of growth to Tear Gas and Flash Grenades in early September, but these seem to be dropping down slightly at the moment, so if you're feeling brave, you might want to wait to see how far they fall before investing. SinCitySinner notes that the best profits can be made by purchasing these Temporary Items cheaply abroad, with Tear Gas available in Argentina for $15k, Flash Grenades sold in Switzerland for $12k and Smoke Grenades on offer for $20k in South Africa.
Pictured: Flowers, check. Plushies, check. Smoke grenades, che... wait a minute.
ENERGY DRINKS
Cans have continued to climb since our previous report, with Taurine Elite and X-Mass adding roughly $200k, Munster and Santa Shooters $70k, Rockstar $60k and Red Cow $50k. Our last Market Report suggested high-end cans might hit $4.2-4.4m during Elimination, and they seem well on course to achieve that if current trends continue. But will we see a large spike to boost this rise even further? Sincitysinner doesn't think so. He feels that based on last year's info, cans will continue on a steady upwards path without any spikes.
"There may be $$$ to be made with Energy Cans, maybe not. There have been so many changes in the market for eCans over the last year, I wouldn't go out and buy eCans to try and flip. If you get them thru a Company Special you might want to hold some to see if the price spikes."
Iribuya shares the belief that cans will go up over the course of the next month, as does ORAN, who seems to indicate a spike may happen "when peasants run out of their cans". He notes that some people decide to participate in Elimination midway through after coasting in the early stages, and that these leechers were his top customers when he added cans to his bazaar last year.
However, ABCDEFGHIJKLM revealed that the recent rise in the value of cans is not entirely down to consumer demand, with part of it due to the behaviour of traders anticipating demand in future.
"Traders are taking advantage of the event and buying out the market in order to sell at higher prices. I myself have been experimenting with this, and have seen at least 3 other huge bulk buyers doing similar and increasing the value of cans."
Does this mean that the current price of cans is false and does not represent their true value to the consumer? Potentially. ABCDEFGHIJKLM went on to say that cans are more attractive than FHCs for flipping due to their difference in cost and the increasing number of FHCs on the market right now. Cans have not experienced a growth in circulation of late, but things may change if some unforeseen event has an effect on the market.
SMALL EXPLOSIVE DEVICES
Just a quick note to end the Elimination section on Small Explosive Devices. SinCitySinner points out that this item, which is used by experienced players to put themselves in the hospital before going offline, spiked at $6.5m during last year's Elimination, having started the competition at around $4m. This year, the item's starting price is much lower, but big gains could soon be around the corner.
As you can see, around $800k has been added since early August alone, and with SEDs used in both Elimination and November's Dog Tags competition, there is reason to believe that prices may continue to rise over the coming month. However, SinCitySinner notes that many experienced players may have already purchased their quota of SEDs when the price was low last month, so you should consider this a risky investment.
SEDs cannot be bought from the city, with this item only ever available via City Finds and the 7-star special at a Farm. If you have a stock of them available already, or you have a haul of Farm job points waiting to be spent, then SEDs make for a worthwhile investment. Otherwise, you'd be better off putting your money into Temporary Weapons this time around.
TOURISM DAY
Business Class Tickets enjoyed a triple boost over the course of June and July in apparent anticipation of citizens' desire to fly to South Africa and make use of the World Tiger Day bonuses. Sharp increases were noticed in mid-June, late-June and late-July, with ultra-prepared, semi-prepared and not-at-all-prepared people buying up BCTs within varying timeframes before the event began.
Yet the same trend has not occurred in anticipation of late-September's Tourism Day, which will provide double the usual travel capacity to all citizens who depart Torn on any flight between noon on the 26th and noon on the 28th of September. In our previous report, we predicted BCTs would fall during August to a more natural position. This was proven correct, with their current price now just $5.5m and falling.
So why has this happened? Is nobody preparing for Tourism Day at all? It may be that some citizens bought up BCTs for both events earlier in the year, and have a stockpile ready to use in late September. Alternatively, it could be the case that many people have simply forgotten about Tourism Day in favour of Elimination - this was our theory when we predicted the recent drop.
Either way, it seems there is an opportunity for some savvy sellers to make some serious cash this year, and they can do so without having to step foot out of Torn. Last year, BCTs rose by $2million in the two days prior to the inaugural Tourism Day, and this was when the event only took place over 24 hours. As is the case with all events now, Tourism Day will be spread over 48 hours this year, and this means we could be in for an even bigger price rise.
As you can see from the graph, 2018's BCT rise was brief due to an unforeseen glitch which meant that Tourism Day bonuses were not initially applied. The response from Torn was to extend the day by a few hours and pay out BCTs as compensation to those affected. The price of BCTs never really recovered from this until summer, but with 48-hours of double travel capacity on the horizon, we could see further recovery made throughout September.
Iribuya disagrees with this assessment, though, as he feels BCTs aren't profitable to use when purchasing items abroad. He believes players would be better off putting their money on Large Suitcases - not literally - which provide space for eight extra items during Tourism Day. Iribuya believes these items could rise as high as $12m in price beforehand, although he might just be saying that because he's selling them himself for $10m at the moment. Crafty sod.
SinCitySinner agrees that BCTs are unlikely to rise in price, since players are now more aware of event days and what they entail than they were last year. As a result, many have started gathering items for them months in advance.
"The Events were new last year and players did not know what to expect. This year they know and were better able to prepare. Not expecting any prices to rise due to Tourism Day, I do expect that plushies/flowers/points as well as Xanax to take a dip after."
As SCS suggests, the flip side of the coin is that foreign items may drop in price as their circulation increases. The Tribulus Omanense, for example, saw its price drop by around $1,000 after 50,000 extra flowers were introduced during the previous Tourism Day. Yet some flowers actually gained value during this event, such as the Peony, which grew steadily in price despite 35,000 being imported. Likewise, the number of Camel Plushies increased by 50,000, yet no discernable price drop was detected.
These figures may be an anomaly though, and with more Torn players than ever before residing in our city, individual flowers and plushies would all be expected to rise in circulation and drop in value due to Tourism Day. This will inevitably result in a drop in the points price when these items are traded at the Museum. Last year's market value dropped slightly in the wake of Tourism Day. This year's drop could be more significant.
Pictured: Let's hope someone famous dies so we can actually use all these f**king flowers.
DONATOR PACKS
The pawn shop price for Donator Packs was increased to $24.7m in early August after a volatile couple of months where the market value dropped and rose several times. DPs hit their highest value since May on July 1st with a $25.4m valuation, before a pawn price drop caused them to lose $700k within a week.
This loss was briefly mitigated by a small rise, only for prices to drop even further down to $24.3m over the course of ten days. Once more, the price recovered to $25.2m within a week, but another $700k drop soon followed. At this point, the pawn shop price was upped to $24.7m from the $24.3 valuation it had been dropped to in early July.
In the midst of these turbulent times, the warning message for purchases above market value was introduced, and Iribuya feels this certainly impacted the price of DPs.
"The Donator Pack market was slowly being destroyed by Grenade Box tricksters. These scammers tried to fool people into buying a DPS priced Grenade Box. This has been made nearly impossible by the new warning system. Their price will always hover $100,000-$600,000 above pawn price."
In response to the pawn shop price rise and the prevention of the Grenade Box scam, the DP market price rose to $25.6m on August 18th, before losing roughly half of these gains over the next few days. Donator Packs are currently going for around $25.1m on the market, but where are they heading this month? ORAN has some thoughts on that.
"Donator Packs might see a tiny maybe huge increase from the current 'Normal' 25M - 25.3M since during September we do see considerable amount of increase in their Value and they're also quick to sell in bazaar if added at market price, it feels like we're very close to another increase/decrease in Pawn shop prices so thats another factor that might affect their price. Either way unless something goes very very wrong we will always see a green tick."
WRITE THE NEXT ECONOMIC REPORT
This month's Economic Report was written by Sugarvalves with contributions from Iribuya, ORAN, SinCitySinner and ABCDEFGHIJKLM. If you are a a trader and you'd like to write next month's report, contact Sugarvalves today.
XANAX POLEAXED
Xanax reached a 3-month peak of $838k on July 1st, only to fall to a 2-year low of $832k in mid-August. Its price has recovered somewhat to a stable $834k, but according to last year's trends, we can expect a price rise around mid-September, when idiots realise they haven't bought as much Xanax as they needed. In 2018, this rise was quickly followed by the kind of slump your dad enjoys after doing the hoovering for the first time in years. And if history repeats itself, we could see Xanax drop to its lowest price of 2019.
Trader Iribuya believes one reason for the instability in the price of Xanax is that Vicoxan scammers are no longer able to pull their dastardly ruse. Thanks to the recent warning message which displays when players are about to pay more than market price for an item, fewer traders are out there pricing Xanax at below-average prices.
Ironically, this has destabilised the market price of Xanax slightly, with a drop in value noted shortly after the warning announcement was made. But in the context of preventing scammers, this isn't necessarily a bad thing - or much of a thing at all, according to Iribuya.
"Xanax is not really an item that will change much. Sure a 10k swing from week to week can happen, but that's still only a 1% change. People use 3 Xanax / day to train, people use 3 Xanax a day to hit in elimination. Not much will change in their price I expect."
So is there any opportunity to make money on Xanax with Elimination so close? SinCitySinner doesn't think so, as he believes that "Everyone that will use Xanax already has Xanax." Conversely, ORAN suggests that while "it may not hit the last year's 850k level... 840k is definitely possible and a lot of people have invested into Xanax so they may also try to buy out so theirs sell for higher."
KITTED OUT
The prices of Small and regular First Aid Kits have both increased by roughly $10,000 since this time last year, but their rise has not been stable by any means. SFAKs look to be on a slight upward trend after their late June fall and are expected to enjoy a brief but significant rise in early September.
The same trend is predicted for regular FAKs, but their price history has been one of constant losses over the past few months, with mid-August's $1.5k price rise ending a slow, downward trend which started back in April. ORAN says he's seen some traders with 5k hauls of Aid Kits, meaning that the timing and size of their eventual price rise could be determined by a handful of savvy sellers.
Morphine's trends are a little more interesting. Like First Aid Kits, Morphine tends to rise in early September, but in some instances - last year especially - it has been known to retain an inflated valuation long after Elimination has ended. Morphine enjoyed a bumper start to the year, hitting as high as $51.7k in March before enduring a slump in late April - although this was nothing compared to what happened over Christmas.
The drug now seems to be sitting a little below its typical value, so any gains it makes over the next month may become permanent. Iribuya expects the price of most medical items to rise slightly during Elimination, but not by much. SinCitySinner agrees with this assessment but feels there may be money to be made in Blood Bags. So let's find out which types he feels are on the up.
BAG EM UP
"Some Factions limit access to their Med Armory during Elimination for those taking part which might increase market action, but I don't see any real opportunity in the 'basic' meds. Some of the blood bags are attractive based on last year's info (all of the '+' as well as A- ). Some saw 10-15k increases last year, would give 30-50% returns based on current prices."
SinCitySinner kindly provided his observations on Blood Bag prices from last year's Elimination. Based on the data below, it initially seems that there's good money to be made on AB-, with a price rise of over $50k potentially forthcoming. But AB- is the rarest blood type in Torn as it can only be used by AB- and AB+ people. Therefore, it may be more profitable to try and flip large quantities of A+ and O+ bloods, which are the most popular types in Torn - the latter is also compatible with roughly 75% of the population.
2018 Blood Price Changes During Elimination
A+ +8k
B+ +11k
O+ +11k
AB+ No change
A- +17k
B- No change
O- +17k
AB- +50k
Pictured: Sweet profit running through your veins.
FEATHERY HOTEL COUPONS
FHCs have lost around $750k in value over the past six months, and while a brief upturn in August seemed to reverse this trend, prices have now continued to fall once more, hovering just north of $14m at the time of writing. However, the beginning of last year's Elimination saw just under $1m added to their price within ten days, and while that may sound promising at first, investors should be cautious.
The imminent arrival of 2017's Elimination competition added $2million to the price of FHCs back then, as did 2016's event, which marked the first iteration of this competition. This means that 2018's FHC price rise was the lowest yet, which could be a sign that 2019's rise will also be low, especially as their base price is quite weak to begin with. Of course, this trend could be bucked due to the fact that there are more players in Torn today. However, the total number of Elimination participants is and has always been limited to 12,000, so any population changes may be moot.
Our last Market Report saw Iribuya predict that FHCs would soon rise to $14.3m as Elimination approached. This increase has not yet occurred. While this item is indeed a good investment given that it is relatively cheap at the moment, don't bank on immediate returns from Feathery Hotel Coupons in the short term - but Iribuya is still hopeful.
"Yes, I made the mistake in investing in FHC. I expected their price to slowly go up for Elimination, but the FHG Benefit Block is so cheap on the market currently that more players own it, so the supply of FHC's on the market has been higher. I still expect FHC to go to my earlier predicted price, but maybe that's just my wishful thinking."
ABCDEFGHIKJLM isn't so hopeful, as having looked at last year's graph, he says he "would not be confident in investing in these anymore." SinCitySinner also notes the lower returns given by last year's price trends and suggests that the only people selling should be those who got them from the FHG Benefit Block.
Finally, ORAN's claim that "some people have hundreds of these so they can print monies during Elimination" means the FHC market will certainly be saturated when the event begins. He feels that prices are unlikely to crash, though, and that much depends on whether those with large stocks are willing to hold for profit or cut their losses and get out.
TEMPORARY WEAPONS
SinCitySinner's Elimination Guide mentioned that Temporary Weapons such as Pepper Spray and Tear Gas are must-have items for new players taking part in the competition. So has anyone paid attention to this advice? The price of Tear Gas has indeed risen dramatically in August, with roughly $2k added to its price this month, even taking into account a brief dip a few days ago. But that's nothing compared to the $20k they gained between the 30th of August and the 12th of September last year.
Pepper Spray has enjoyed a less productive month, and it will end August slightly below the price at which it began. Elimination typically adds about $100 onto the valuation of these items, which is barely worth it if you're a trader, but a more significant if you're a new player looking to stock up. Flash Grenades look a better bet for investment, as like Tear Gas, they tend to add about $20k during the first few days of Elimination. But you'll have to buy them up quickly, as FGs seem to be on the cusp of a rise at the moment.
Smoke Grenades are also predicted to enjoy a similar amount of growth to Tear Gas and Flash Grenades in early September, but these seem to be dropping down slightly at the moment, so if you're feeling brave, you might want to wait to see how far they fall before investing. SinCitySinner notes that the best profits can be made by purchasing these Temporary Items cheaply abroad, with Tear Gas available in Argentina for $15k, Flash Grenades sold in Switzerland for $12k and Smoke Grenades on offer for $20k in South Africa.
Pictured: Flowers, check. Plushies, check. Smoke grenades, che... wait a minute.
ENERGY DRINKS
Cans have continued to climb since our previous report, with Taurine Elite and X-Mass adding roughly $200k, Munster and Santa Shooters $70k, Rockstar $60k and Red Cow $50k. Our last Market Report suggested high-end cans might hit $4.2-4.4m during Elimination, and they seem well on course to achieve that if current trends continue. But will we see a large spike to boost this rise even further? Sincitysinner doesn't think so. He feels that based on last year's info, cans will continue on a steady upwards path without any spikes.
"There may be $$$ to be made with Energy Cans, maybe not. There have been so many changes in the market for eCans over the last year, I wouldn't go out and buy eCans to try and flip. If you get them thru a Company Special you might want to hold some to see if the price spikes."
Iribuya shares the belief that cans will go up over the course of the next month, as does ORAN, who seems to indicate a spike may happen "when peasants run out of their cans". He notes that some people decide to participate in Elimination midway through after coasting in the early stages, and that these leechers were his top customers when he added cans to his bazaar last year.
However, ABCDEFGHIJKLM revealed that the recent rise in the value of cans is not entirely down to consumer demand, with part of it due to the behaviour of traders anticipating demand in future.
"Traders are taking advantage of the event and buying out the market in order to sell at higher prices. I myself have been experimenting with this, and have seen at least 3 other huge bulk buyers doing similar and increasing the value of cans."
Does this mean that the current price of cans is false and does not represent their true value to the consumer? Potentially. ABCDEFGHIJKLM went on to say that cans are more attractive than FHCs for flipping due to their difference in cost and the increasing number of FHCs on the market right now. Cans have not experienced a growth in circulation of late, but things may change if some unforeseen event has an effect on the market.
SMALL EXPLOSIVE DEVICES
Just a quick note to end the Elimination section on Small Explosive Devices. SinCitySinner points out that this item, which is used by experienced players to put themselves in the hospital before going offline, spiked at $6.5m during last year's Elimination, having started the competition at around $4m. This year, the item's starting price is much lower, but big gains could soon be around the corner.
As you can see, around $800k has been added since early August alone, and with SEDs used in both Elimination and November's Dog Tags competition, there is reason to believe that prices may continue to rise over the coming month. However, SinCitySinner notes that many experienced players may have already purchased their quota of SEDs when the price was low last month, so you should consider this a risky investment.
SEDs cannot be bought from the city, with this item only ever available via City Finds and the 7-star special at a Farm. If you have a stock of them available already, or you have a haul of Farm job points waiting to be spent, then SEDs make for a worthwhile investment. Otherwise, you'd be better off putting your money into Temporary Weapons this time around.
TOURISM DAY
Business Class Tickets enjoyed a triple boost over the course of June and July in apparent anticipation of citizens' desire to fly to South Africa and make use of the World Tiger Day bonuses. Sharp increases were noticed in mid-June, late-June and late-July, with ultra-prepared, semi-prepared and not-at-all-prepared people buying up BCTs within varying timeframes before the event began.
Yet the same trend has not occurred in anticipation of late-September's Tourism Day, which will provide double the usual travel capacity to all citizens who depart Torn on any flight between noon on the 26th and noon on the 28th of September. In our previous report, we predicted BCTs would fall during August to a more natural position. This was proven correct, with their current price now just $5.5m and falling.
So why has this happened? Is nobody preparing for Tourism Day at all? It may be that some citizens bought up BCTs for both events earlier in the year, and have a stockpile ready to use in late September. Alternatively, it could be the case that many people have simply forgotten about Tourism Day in favour of Elimination - this was our theory when we predicted the recent drop.
Either way, it seems there is an opportunity for some savvy sellers to make some serious cash this year, and they can do so without having to step foot out of Torn. Last year, BCTs rose by $2million in the two days prior to the inaugural Tourism Day, and this was when the event only took place over 24 hours. As is the case with all events now, Tourism Day will be spread over 48 hours this year, and this means we could be in for an even bigger price rise.
As you can see from the graph, 2018's BCT rise was brief due to an unforeseen glitch which meant that Tourism Day bonuses were not initially applied. The response from Torn was to extend the day by a few hours and pay out BCTs as compensation to those affected. The price of BCTs never really recovered from this until summer, but with 48-hours of double travel capacity on the horizon, we could see further recovery made throughout September.
Iribuya disagrees with this assessment, though, as he feels BCTs aren't profitable to use when purchasing items abroad. He believes players would be better off putting their money on Large Suitcases - not literally - which provide space for eight extra items during Tourism Day. Iribuya believes these items could rise as high as $12m in price beforehand, although he might just be saying that because he's selling them himself for $10m at the moment. Crafty sod.
SinCitySinner agrees that BCTs are unlikely to rise in price, since players are now more aware of event days and what they entail than they were last year. As a result, many have started gathering items for them months in advance.
"The Events were new last year and players did not know what to expect. This year they know and were better able to prepare. Not expecting any prices to rise due to Tourism Day, I do expect that plushies/flowers/points as well as Xanax to take a dip after."
As SCS suggests, the flip side of the coin is that foreign items may drop in price as their circulation increases. The Tribulus Omanense, for example, saw its price drop by around $1,000 after 50,000 extra flowers were introduced during the previous Tourism Day. Yet some flowers actually gained value during this event, such as the Peony, which grew steadily in price despite 35,000 being imported. Likewise, the number of Camel Plushies increased by 50,000, yet no discernable price drop was detected.
These figures may be an anomaly though, and with more Torn players than ever before residing in our city, individual flowers and plushies would all be expected to rise in circulation and drop in value due to Tourism Day. This will inevitably result in a drop in the points price when these items are traded at the Museum. Last year's market value dropped slightly in the wake of Tourism Day. This year's drop could be more significant.
Pictured: Let's hope someone famous dies so we can actually use all these f**king flowers.
DONATOR PACKS
The pawn shop price for Donator Packs was increased to $24.7m in early August after a volatile couple of months where the market value dropped and rose several times. DPs hit their highest value since May on July 1st with a $25.4m valuation, before a pawn price drop caused them to lose $700k within a week.
This loss was briefly mitigated by a small rise, only for prices to drop even further down to $24.3m over the course of ten days. Once more, the price recovered to $25.2m within a week, but another $700k drop soon followed. At this point, the pawn shop price was upped to $24.7m from the $24.3 valuation it had been dropped to in early July.
In the midst of these turbulent times, the warning message for purchases above market value was introduced, and Iribuya feels this certainly impacted the price of DPs.
"The Donator Pack market was slowly being destroyed by Grenade Box tricksters. These scammers tried to fool people into buying a DPS priced Grenade Box. This has been made nearly impossible by the new warning system. Their price will always hover $100,000-$600,000 above pawn price."
In response to the pawn shop price rise and the prevention of the Grenade Box scam, the DP market price rose to $25.6m on August 18th, before losing roughly half of these gains over the next few days. Donator Packs are currently going for around $25.1m on the market, but where are they heading this month? ORAN has some thoughts on that.
"Donator Packs might see a tiny maybe huge increase from the current 'Normal' 25M - 25.3M since during September we do see considerable amount of increase in their Value and they're also quick to sell in bazaar if added at market price, it feels like we're very close to another increase/decrease in Pawn shop prices so thats another factor that might affect their price. Either way unless something goes very very wrong we will always see a green tick."
WRITE THE NEXT ECONOMIC REPORT
This month's Economic Report was written by Sugarvalves with contributions from Iribuya, ORAN, SinCitySinner and ABCDEFGHIJKLM. If you are a a trader and you'd like to write next month's report, contact Sugarvalves today.
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