Paul [1176287] —
Original article
| Volume I, Issue 1 | The Journal of Torn Science (JTS) is a peer-reviewed journal that features high-impact studies conducted by researchers in the Torn Community.
Introduction
Torn is a unique and complex game littered with hidden variables and stats that have a significant impact on your gameplay. One way or another, we all came to this realization very early in the game when we asked:
“Wait, how do we know when we’re close to leveling up?”
The answer is, you don’t; your experience is hidden. And it is that age-old noob question that made me question what else in this game is hidden, and is there a way to quantify what we cannot see?
In the Journal of Torn Science, we seek answers to some of these questions through rigorous and thoughtful studies. This pilot volume will highlight previous studies conducted by members of the Torn community. In subsequent volumes, we hope to premier new data in this format as soon as those studies are complete, and we encourage other investigators to reach out to Paul, Andyman, or Sugarvalves if you would like to submit your study to the Journal of Torn Science Editorial Board.
In this issue, we will evaluate the following: the hidden variable of awareness (a.k.a. Ched’s favorite nerf punching bag), the value of lovely Leslie’s Spin the wheel, the new variable of weapon quality and its rarity, and what your chances are of obtaining loot from NPCs.
Q.1: Do you need to max out awareness merits to get an SE while using the Finders Keepers book?
Author: Paul (Source)
Short answer, no. I have found in this baseline analysis study that it is possible to find an SE in the city while on the Finders Keepers book. It, however, is still recommended to save this book for Christmas Town or awareness week so that profit likelihoods can be maximized. That being said, for individuals seeking immediate gratification, starting the book without other upgrades will still yield benefits. I recommend comparing this to Ampheromine’s study using this book + awareness week + 10/10 awareness + company benefits (+ 70% awareness) and making up your mind. Was it worth it to go through all that trouble?
Q.2: How rare is the +90% quality handgun I purchased from Big Als?
Author: Andyman (Source 1) (Source 2)
I purchased and studied 3,100 Beretta M9s from Big Als and studied the damage/accuracy and respective quality of each. Finding a weapon with exceptional damage OR accuracy is going to be very rare. Finding a weapon with exceptional damage AND accuracy is going to be nothing short of amazing. In fact, if you have a personal goal of obtaining a 90% Beretta M9, the data suggests that your chances of finding one with a total quality percentage higher than 89.99% is around one in nine and a half million. Since we're limited to buying only 100 items a day from Big Als... it will most likely take you around 260 years before you find a +90% quality Beretta M9 to satisfy your goal!
Pictured: Andyman studying weapon quality
Q.3: What are the results of one year of wheel spins?
Author: Prezze (Source)
In this study, the author catalogued every win for every wheel over the course of a year. As we know, the options are $1m, $50k, and $1k (quick aside - why not make a $10m option?) so the costs of spinning were factored into the net equations. The author of this study found a negative annual yield (- $3m) from the Wheel of Awesome, a positive annual yield (+ $17m) from the Wheel of Mediocrity, and a positive annual yield (+ $3m) from the Wheel of Lame. Together, it was concluded that spinning all three wheels would be best for torn citizens (ya, know, just in case you land a PI).
Pictured: what it's like spinning the Wheel of Awesome
Q.4 What are my chances of getting loot from NPCs?
Author: Andyman (Source)
In December 2019, I published my loot tracking data in an attempt to gauge the expected value of using energy in loot raids. One of the variables associated with this study was finding the approximate loot drop rate for each of the items. This loot percentage data is based solely on item circulation data as of the 6th of December, 2019, and I'm aware this methodology isn't perfect for several reasons: Chiefly, the looting community gets antsy on occasion and takes out Duke/Leslie while he is still at Loot Level III.
Furthermore, the Nail Bomb and Sand are expendable temporary items, so the looting percentages are probably understated by at least a few % considering they are taken out of circulation upon being used. There may also be items that have been generated by staff for testing and it is entirely possible that troll player(s) have destroyed one or more of these lootable items via SED.
If you happen to be one of the lucky four players who gets loot during a Loot Level 4 raid, I calculated your chances of obtaining loot items as follows:
Note: The market pricing data reflected on the chart above fluctuates greatly and will almost certainly continue to decrease as NPC-loot-items get more and more common.
For those wondering, yes, it is possible to loot two of the same rare item at Loot Level IV! Two Rheinmetall MG3s were looted from Duke on the 26th of March, 2020. AlexanderWoolf and COXY were the lucky pillagers!
Final Notes
We want to hear from you! Torn is home to many real-life scientists, researchers, data analysts etc, and if any of you would like to publish your own study, or gain some help in conducting one, or you simply have a question about the game that is not well understood and just too damn geeky for the Aunty Torn column, then do not hesitate to reach out to Paul, Andyman, or Sugarvalves.
Torn is a unique and complex game littered with hidden variables and stats that have a significant impact on your gameplay. One way or another, we all came to this realization very early in the game when we asked:
“Wait, how do we know when we’re close to leveling up?”
The answer is, you don’t; your experience is hidden. And it is that age-old noob question that made me question what else in this game is hidden, and is there a way to quantify what we cannot see?
In the Journal of Torn Science, we seek answers to some of these questions through rigorous and thoughtful studies. This pilot volume will highlight previous studies conducted by members of the Torn community. In subsequent volumes, we hope to premier new data in this format as soon as those studies are complete, and we encourage other investigators to reach out to Paul, Andyman, or Sugarvalves if you would like to submit your study to the Journal of Torn Science Editorial Board.
In this issue, we will evaluate the following: the hidden variable of awareness (a.k.a. Ched’s favorite nerf punching bag), the value of lovely Leslie’s Spin the wheel, the new variable of weapon quality and its rarity, and what your chances are of obtaining loot from NPCs.
Q.1: Do you need to max out awareness merits to get an SE while using the Finders Keepers book?
Author: Paul (Source)
Short answer, no. I have found in this baseline analysis study that it is possible to find an SE in the city while on the Finders Keepers book. It, however, is still recommended to save this book for Christmas Town or awareness week so that profit likelihoods can be maximized. That being said, for individuals seeking immediate gratification, starting the book without other upgrades will still yield benefits. I recommend comparing this to Ampheromine’s study using this book + awareness week + 10/10 awareness + company benefits (+ 70% awareness) and making up your mind. Was it worth it to go through all that trouble?
Q.2: How rare is the +90% quality handgun I purchased from Big Als?
Author: Andyman (Source 1) (Source 2)
I purchased and studied 3,100 Beretta M9s from Big Als and studied the damage/accuracy and respective quality of each. Finding a weapon with exceptional damage OR accuracy is going to be very rare. Finding a weapon with exceptional damage AND accuracy is going to be nothing short of amazing. In fact, if you have a personal goal of obtaining a 90% Beretta M9, the data suggests that your chances of finding one with a total quality percentage higher than 89.99% is around one in nine and a half million. Since we're limited to buying only 100 items a day from Big Als... it will most likely take you around 260 years before you find a +90% quality Beretta M9 to satisfy your goal!
Pictured: Andyman studying weapon quality
Q.3: What are the results of one year of wheel spins?
Author: Prezze (Source)
In this study, the author catalogued every win for every wheel over the course of a year. As we know, the options are $1m, $50k, and $1k (quick aside - why not make a $10m option?) so the costs of spinning were factored into the net equations. The author of this study found a negative annual yield (- $3m) from the Wheel of Awesome, a positive annual yield (+ $17m) from the Wheel of Mediocrity, and a positive annual yield (+ $3m) from the Wheel of Lame. Together, it was concluded that spinning all three wheels would be best for torn citizens (ya, know, just in case you land a PI).
Pictured: what it's like spinning the Wheel of Awesome
Q.4 What are my chances of getting loot from NPCs?
Author: Andyman (Source)
In December 2019, I published my loot tracking data in an attempt to gauge the expected value of using energy in loot raids. One of the variables associated with this study was finding the approximate loot drop rate for each of the items. This loot percentage data is based solely on item circulation data as of the 6th of December, 2019, and I'm aware this methodology isn't perfect for several reasons: Chiefly, the looting community gets antsy on occasion and takes out Duke/Leslie while he is still at Loot Level III.
Furthermore, the Nail Bomb and Sand are expendable temporary items, so the looting percentages are probably understated by at least a few % considering they are taken out of circulation upon being used. There may also be items that have been generated by staff for testing and it is entirely possible that troll player(s) have destroyed one or more of these lootable items via SED.
If you happen to be one of the lucky four players who gets loot during a Loot Level 4 raid, I calculated your chances of obtaining loot items as follows:
Note: The market pricing data reflected on the chart above fluctuates greatly and will almost certainly continue to decrease as NPC-loot-items get more and more common.
For those wondering, yes, it is possible to loot two of the same rare item at Loot Level IV! Two Rheinmetall MG3s were looted from Duke on the 26th of March, 2020. AlexanderWoolf and COXY were the lucky pillagers!
Final Notes
We want to hear from you! Torn is home to many real-life scientists, researchers, data analysts etc, and if any of you would like to publish your own study, or gain some help in conducting one, or you simply have a question about the game that is not well understood and just too damn geeky for the Aunty Torn column, then do not hesitate to reach out to Paul, Andyman, or Sugarvalves.
Original article
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