sugarvalves [1963573] —
UNPREDICTABLE POINTS
After months of continuous decline, the points market seemed to be improving midway through March, rising from a seven-month low of $46,665 on the 11th to a healthier price of $47,879 one week later. However, this recovery was short-lived, and points are now at their lowest price since July 2019.
The combined effects of an increasing population and repeated decreases in the Pawn Shop price for Donator Packs are to blame for much of this slump, but what caused the brief resurgence we saw in mid-March? It appears that the value of most plushies and some flowers increased around the same time that the point price rose, but was this the cause, or an effect?
Pictured: Tribulus Omanense three-month price graph.
Pictured: Camel Plushie three-month price graph.
It appears that a lower than usual supply of flowers and plushies may be at the heart of March's short-term point price gain, as many of their circulation graphs show either a less aggressive curve or a plateau occurring at the time. A quick look at the City Stats page also indicates that on several occasions over the past month, a lower number of travellers than usual were seen departing Torn City.
Pictured: One-month travel graph.
We aren't sure why this short slowdown in plushie and flower circulation occurred, but it could happen again is if Natural Selection follows through on their threats to lock down the airports. Such an act could prove a boon to the points industry, making March's circulation shortage and price revival look insignificant by comparison.
Regardless of whether this lockdown takes place or not, a further dip in the price of points is inevitable, courtesy of Torn's annual Museum Day event. From the 17th to the 19th the Museum will payout 10% more points to those who trade in full sets of flowers, plushies, or any other suitable items into the Museum. We mentioned this event in our previous report, and on reflection, it may have been our prediction which caused March's aforementioned temporary price rise after all.
DONATOR PACKS STALL
As we mentioned in the previous section, the price given at the pawn shop for Donator Packs has been dropped several times in recent months, with the previous rise coming back in November 2019 when it was raised from $24.9 million to $25.1 million. Since then, it has fallen to $24.9 million, $24.5 million, $24.1 million, and then in the most recent change, a drop to $23.95 million in early February.
This continuous fall seemed likely to continue, but further price drops at the pawn shop haven't been forthcoming. As a result, DP prices have levelled off, as the graph below indicates.
Pictured: Donator Pack three-month price graph.
The downwards trend at the end of the graph represents a $400k fall, and while that may seem a lot, it is nothing compared to the activity seen in previous months - a rise and fall of $800k to $1 million was once par for the course. iribuya seems to believe that this stability is much needed right now, given that Torn's other financial institutions are, in his opinion, experiencing volatility.
"I suggest Chedburn stabilize the pawn price for points and DP, because the economic problem is STOCKS at the moment. System buybacks need to stop and let BB's also go up / down with supply and demand. But that would cause chaos in the rich folks investments, so it won't happen." - iribuya
4/20 BLAZE IT
While real-world bastards continue to price gouge hand-sanitiser and N95 masks, Torn's band of rampant profiteers look set to hike the value of weed this month, with the annual 4/20 holiday celebrated by a return of the Cannabis event. From the 19th to the 21st all Cannabis effects will be tripled, and as you can see from the graph below, that means you'll pay more for your green if you haven't already stocked up.
Pictured: Cannabis three-year price graph.
Cannabis Day began in Torn in 2018 as a one-day event, and thus its price spiked massively over a short period, rising from $9.8k on the 18th of April 2018 to $27,546 on the 20th itself. The following year a more modest rise was noted, albeit one which took place over a longer period of time. Cannabis was valued at $10k on the 28th of March, rising to $15k three days later. Prices peaked at $17k on the 18th but fell to $12k on 4/20 itself.
This year the rise may have started even earlier than usual, with the drug's twelve-month lull giving way to a gradual yet noticeable rise since mid-February.
Pictured: Cannabis three-month price graph.
I predict that Cannabis will continue to rise, but there is a good chance its average price will not exceed that of last year's hike at $17k. In addition, the generous sale of Cannabis items by FIDEL-CASTRO at just $420 a pop could reduce the impact of the price hike even further, especially if other bazaar owners decide to follow suit in a bid to attract customers.
"Cannabis WILL go up, but go down just as fast as soon as the event is going on. People stockpiling now are too late, same as what I said about the alcohol last event." - iribuya
DRUGS ROUNDUP
Xanax has had a rough 2020 so far, with prices continuing to fall since the beginning of the year. However, a low of $833k in late February was swiftly followed by a recovery over the first half of March, one which saw $5k added to the average Xanax price.
Pictured: Xanax three-month price graph.
This rise didn't last long, though, and we've seen prices fall back to around $834-835k at the time of writing. One possible reason for March's temporary increase is that it coincided with heightened activity among several well-known factions, many of whom decided to prepare for or begin high-profile wars over the month. However, iribuya feels that a change of less than 1% is merely driven by traders undercutting each other, and is not noteworthy in itself.
Elsewhere, trader ORAN suggests that Vicodin has been manipulated recently, commenting that he "heard it went very very wrong." It appears iribuya may have encountered the person behind this scheme.
"I had some day 200 asking if I would take bulk Vicodin last week. I always take bulk, but he had 150k pills...Then I looked at the price in the last month and it has been going up slowly. Meaning this person or someone probably bought up the market slowly until the price went up and is now trying to sell his stack at this new price. Dont fall for it, because as soon as you sell vicodin it will be a massive undercut war until it's back to it's old (real) price."
Speed looks to have stabilised after a rollercoaster Christmas period. PCP is falling after a strong three-month showing. Opium has levelled out after recovering from its slow decline in mid-February. LSD's recovery from its own mid-Feb slump has stalled. Ecstasy, being ecstasy, is doing absolutely nothing at all. Ketamine continues to rise and hasn't been this consistently expensive since late 2017. And finally, despite a small recovery in early March, Shrooms continue to drop gradually.
ST PATRICK'S STIRS UP THE BOOZE MARKET
Anyone with half a brain cell could have predicted that alcohol prices would rise ahead of last month's St Patrick's Day event, as with triple the usual nerve on offer, many people were desperate to drink their fill and bash out a few crimes while under the influence.
In our March Market Report published on the 9th, experienced trader Iribuya suggested that players shouldn't bother buying alcohol to make money on the price hike, as it had already happened. However, it appears we underestimated how many unprepared people there are in Torn, as most booze prices peaked between the 12th-14th of March, with the top alcohols adding six-figure sums to their value since the publication of our report.
Pictured: Green Stout one month price graph.
The St Patrick's event also led to the release of roughly 20,000 bottles of Green Stout too, so it was obvious that a price drop in five nerve booze would occur after the event had finished. This is precisely what happened, but what we didn't expect was that the price of the five nerve alcohols would diverge so dramatically. Green Stout started the month with a $1.5 million valuation but had dropped to $909k by April 6th due to its massive circulation increase.
So far, so predictable. What was quite unexpected is just how protected Moonshine and Christmas Spirit were from this drop, despite both products providing the exact same nerve that Green Stout does. Moonshine began the month at a value of $1.3 million but has lost only $300k compared to the $600k shed by Green Stout. And Christmas Spirit has experienced an almost identical drop, having been valued at $1.32 million on March 6th, compared to $1.02 million on April 6th.
Pictured: Moonshine one-month circulation graph.
As you can see from the circulation graph above, Moonshine was down around 8,000 units due to St Patrick's, with just over 1,000 bottles of Christmas Spirit used during the same period. The scarcity of any one item obviously affects its price, but less so when there are competing products available with greater circulation.
I therefore believe that the current prices of the top three alcohol items are untenable. With a $100k price difference currently in place between Green Stout and Christmas Spirit, I expect that all three will eventually resettle at somewhere around the $950k mark. iribuya appears to agree with this assessment.
"The supply is still rising on Moonshines, means people are still not drinking it and it hasn't found it's right price. It will DROP until people want to pay that much for extra nerve."
With regards to the other alcohol items, we saw more predictable price falls with four-nerve alcohol, which lost about $17k a bottle. However, two of the three types of three-nerve alcohol are actually up on where they were at this time last month. While Wicked Witch has lost $5k, Minty Mayhem has gained $1k, and Christmas Cocktail has added $6k to its price.
The two-nerve alcohols haven't done so well, with Pumpkin Brew and Kandy Kane losing $1-2k. As for the one-nerve booze items, Beer has made a small gain, rising to $884 from $858, Tequila has lost $70, and Champagne has remained roughly the same. Most alcohol tends to spend late Spring and early Summer rising steadily, and we have no reason to believe they will not do the same this year. iribuya disagrees that this will happen.
"I know someone who's been hoarding alcohol in anticipation for crimes 2.0, but who knows when that will happen... Alcohol values will drop unless some crime event is announced."
MEDICAL SUPPLIES END THEIR FALL
Back in February Caleian informed us of a long-term price rise seen in Small First Aid Kits, First Aid Kits and Morphine which stretched back to July 2018. It was noted that prices for these items had steadily risen in the years since, only to fall as December 2019 began.
This depression now seems to have stalled, with all three items either rising or hitting a plateau. First Aid Kits have taken a sharp rise in the past few days, going from $25k to $27.4k between the 3rd and 4th of April. And having arrested their overall slide in late February, this latest rise is the second of two small price peaks which have occurred since.
Pictured: FAK six-month price graph.
Pictured: SFAK six-month price graph.
Small First Aid Kits have enjoyed a more stable increase since the beginning of March, climbing from $17k to $20.3k at the time of writing. Much like FAKs, SFAKs enjoyed a small peak around the 4th of March, indicating that the recent upturn in warring has had a direct effect on the reversal in fortune of these two medical items.
Morphine also benefitted from the increase in active wars, as its own slump ended with early March's peak, although the price of this drug has stayed steady at around $40k ever since - roughly $10k lower than usual. The future of these items depends heavily on whether further warring will take place - we hear this is more than likely to occur.
CANS RISE TO DEFY EXPERTS
Can prices have risen across the board during March, contrary to the opinion of our market experts who predicted they would continue to fall. Cans gained a short boost over Valentine's Day earlier this year, but this soon gave way and prices continued to drop as we approach the end of the month. Prices were rising slightly when we published our previous report, but this was not enough to tempt many into predicting a positive month ahead for energy drinks.
Except ORAN, of course, who encouraged people to gamble on their price rising.
Pictured: X-MASS three-month price graph.
The top tier cans, X-MASS and Taurine Elite, have gained around $250k since the beginning of March. Rockstar Rudolph and Red Cow took a little longer to begin gaining, but they have also increased in value, adding around $170-180k since mid-March.
Munster and Santa Shooters began their ascent earlier, with a slow, gradual rise seen since mid-February. But these 20 energy cans really took off around the 19th of March, gaining $180k apiece since then.
Pictured: Santa Shooters three-month price graph.
The three new cans all began their post-Christmastown recovery in late December, but they too shot up from late on in February. Between the 17th of Feb and the 5th of April, Crocozade gained an incredible $204k. Meanwhile, Damp Valley gained $167k during the same period, and Goose Juice rose by over $100k.
When can prices get going in the spring they tend to continue rising throughout the year until around September. Energy Drinks probably won't be able to continue climbing as steep as they have been doing over the past month, however, so we expect them to switch between climbing slowly and plateauing over the coming months.
And the likelihood of this prediction coming true has been helped by the fact that fewer people are now manipulating the cans market, according to ORAN.
"There's a decline in people manipulating... last few years a lot of people would manipulate, this time around, that number has gone down to 1 or 2 maybe. I think it has to do with the cans released and many people lost cash last elim, it was just not predictable to an extent. I think that's the main cause."
WRITE THE NEXT MARKET REPORT
Do you have an interest in the item market? Are you a trader with a history of successful predictions? Then please contact Sugarvalves today with your tips and forecasts for the item market. We pay out a Donator Pack to all of those who provide us with any market information that is used in our report. And if you'd like to write the full report, please get in touch with Sugarvalves to express your interest
Original article
Points fall after short-lived recovery. DP prices stall. Cannabis set to rise. Cans hit upturn in spite of expert predictions. Booze prices unstable. Medical items on the up.
UNPREDICTABLE POINTS
After months of continuous decline, the points market seemed to be improving midway through March, rising from a seven-month low of $46,665 on the 11th to a healthier price of $47,879 one week later. However, this recovery was short-lived, and points are now at their lowest price since July 2019.
The combined effects of an increasing population and repeated decreases in the Pawn Shop price for Donator Packs are to blame for much of this slump, but what caused the brief resurgence we saw in mid-March? It appears that the value of most plushies and some flowers increased around the same time that the point price rose, but was this the cause, or an effect?
Pictured: Tribulus Omanense three-month price graph.
Pictured: Camel Plushie three-month price graph.
It appears that a lower than usual supply of flowers and plushies may be at the heart of March's short-term point price gain, as many of their circulation graphs show either a less aggressive curve or a plateau occurring at the time. A quick look at the City Stats page also indicates that on several occasions over the past month, a lower number of travellers than usual were seen departing Torn City.
Pictured: One-month travel graph.
We aren't sure why this short slowdown in plushie and flower circulation occurred, but it could happen again is if Natural Selection follows through on their threats to lock down the airports. Such an act could prove a boon to the points industry, making March's circulation shortage and price revival look insignificant by comparison.
Regardless of whether this lockdown takes place or not, a further dip in the price of points is inevitable, courtesy of Torn's annual Museum Day event. From the 17th to the 19th the Museum will payout 10% more points to those who trade in full sets of flowers, plushies, or any other suitable items into the Museum. We mentioned this event in our previous report, and on reflection, it may have been our prediction which caused March's aforementioned temporary price rise after all.
DONATOR PACKS STALL
As we mentioned in the previous section, the price given at the pawn shop for Donator Packs has been dropped several times in recent months, with the previous rise coming back in November 2019 when it was raised from $24.9 million to $25.1 million. Since then, it has fallen to $24.9 million, $24.5 million, $24.1 million, and then in the most recent change, a drop to $23.95 million in early February.
This continuous fall seemed likely to continue, but further price drops at the pawn shop haven't been forthcoming. As a result, DP prices have levelled off, as the graph below indicates.
Pictured: Donator Pack three-month price graph.
The downwards trend at the end of the graph represents a $400k fall, and while that may seem a lot, it is nothing compared to the activity seen in previous months - a rise and fall of $800k to $1 million was once par for the course. iribuya seems to believe that this stability is much needed right now, given that Torn's other financial institutions are, in his opinion, experiencing volatility.
"I suggest Chedburn stabilize the pawn price for points and DP, because the economic problem is STOCKS at the moment. System buybacks need to stop and let BB's also go up / down with supply and demand. But that would cause chaos in the rich folks investments, so it won't happen." - iribuya
4/20 BLAZE IT
While real-world bastards continue to price gouge hand-sanitiser and N95 masks, Torn's band of rampant profiteers look set to hike the value of weed this month, with the annual 4/20 holiday celebrated by a return of the Cannabis event. From the 19th to the 21st all Cannabis effects will be tripled, and as you can see from the graph below, that means you'll pay more for your green if you haven't already stocked up.
Pictured: Cannabis three-year price graph.
Cannabis Day began in Torn in 2018 as a one-day event, and thus its price spiked massively over a short period, rising from $9.8k on the 18th of April 2018 to $27,546 on the 20th itself. The following year a more modest rise was noted, albeit one which took place over a longer period of time. Cannabis was valued at $10k on the 28th of March, rising to $15k three days later. Prices peaked at $17k on the 18th but fell to $12k on 4/20 itself.
This year the rise may have started even earlier than usual, with the drug's twelve-month lull giving way to a gradual yet noticeable rise since mid-February.
Pictured: Cannabis three-month price graph.
I predict that Cannabis will continue to rise, but there is a good chance its average price will not exceed that of last year's hike at $17k. In addition, the generous sale of Cannabis items by FIDEL-CASTRO at just $420 a pop could reduce the impact of the price hike even further, especially if other bazaar owners decide to follow suit in a bid to attract customers.
"Cannabis WILL go up, but go down just as fast as soon as the event is going on. People stockpiling now are too late, same as what I said about the alcohol last event." - iribuya
DRUGS ROUNDUP
Xanax has had a rough 2020 so far, with prices continuing to fall since the beginning of the year. However, a low of $833k in late February was swiftly followed by a recovery over the first half of March, one which saw $5k added to the average Xanax price.
Pictured: Xanax three-month price graph.
This rise didn't last long, though, and we've seen prices fall back to around $834-835k at the time of writing. One possible reason for March's temporary increase is that it coincided with heightened activity among several well-known factions, many of whom decided to prepare for or begin high-profile wars over the month. However, iribuya feels that a change of less than 1% is merely driven by traders undercutting each other, and is not noteworthy in itself.
Elsewhere, trader ORAN suggests that Vicodin has been manipulated recently, commenting that he "heard it went very very wrong." It appears iribuya may have encountered the person behind this scheme.
"I had some day 200 asking if I would take bulk Vicodin last week. I always take bulk, but he had 150k pills...Then I looked at the price in the last month and it has been going up slowly. Meaning this person or someone probably bought up the market slowly until the price went up and is now trying to sell his stack at this new price. Dont fall for it, because as soon as you sell vicodin it will be a massive undercut war until it's back to it's old (real) price."
Speed looks to have stabilised after a rollercoaster Christmas period. PCP is falling after a strong three-month showing. Opium has levelled out after recovering from its slow decline in mid-February. LSD's recovery from its own mid-Feb slump has stalled. Ecstasy, being ecstasy, is doing absolutely nothing at all. Ketamine continues to rise and hasn't been this consistently expensive since late 2017. And finally, despite a small recovery in early March, Shrooms continue to drop gradually.
ST PATRICK'S STIRS UP THE BOOZE MARKET
Anyone with half a brain cell could have predicted that alcohol prices would rise ahead of last month's St Patrick's Day event, as with triple the usual nerve on offer, many people were desperate to drink their fill and bash out a few crimes while under the influence.
In our March Market Report published on the 9th, experienced trader Iribuya suggested that players shouldn't bother buying alcohol to make money on the price hike, as it had already happened. However, it appears we underestimated how many unprepared people there are in Torn, as most booze prices peaked between the 12th-14th of March, with the top alcohols adding six-figure sums to their value since the publication of our report.
Pictured: Green Stout one month price graph.
The St Patrick's event also led to the release of roughly 20,000 bottles of Green Stout too, so it was obvious that a price drop in five nerve booze would occur after the event had finished. This is precisely what happened, but what we didn't expect was that the price of the five nerve alcohols would diverge so dramatically. Green Stout started the month with a $1.5 million valuation but had dropped to $909k by April 6th due to its massive circulation increase.
So far, so predictable. What was quite unexpected is just how protected Moonshine and Christmas Spirit were from this drop, despite both products providing the exact same nerve that Green Stout does. Moonshine began the month at a value of $1.3 million but has lost only $300k compared to the $600k shed by Green Stout. And Christmas Spirit has experienced an almost identical drop, having been valued at $1.32 million on March 6th, compared to $1.02 million on April 6th.
Pictured: Moonshine one-month circulation graph.
As you can see from the circulation graph above, Moonshine was down around 8,000 units due to St Patrick's, with just over 1,000 bottles of Christmas Spirit used during the same period. The scarcity of any one item obviously affects its price, but less so when there are competing products available with greater circulation.
I therefore believe that the current prices of the top three alcohol items are untenable. With a $100k price difference currently in place between Green Stout and Christmas Spirit, I expect that all three will eventually resettle at somewhere around the $950k mark. iribuya appears to agree with this assessment.
"The supply is still rising on Moonshines, means people are still not drinking it and it hasn't found it's right price. It will DROP until people want to pay that much for extra nerve."
With regards to the other alcohol items, we saw more predictable price falls with four-nerve alcohol, which lost about $17k a bottle. However, two of the three types of three-nerve alcohol are actually up on where they were at this time last month. While Wicked Witch has lost $5k, Minty Mayhem has gained $1k, and Christmas Cocktail has added $6k to its price.
The two-nerve alcohols haven't done so well, with Pumpkin Brew and Kandy Kane losing $1-2k. As for the one-nerve booze items, Beer has made a small gain, rising to $884 from $858, Tequila has lost $70, and Champagne has remained roughly the same. Most alcohol tends to spend late Spring and early Summer rising steadily, and we have no reason to believe they will not do the same this year. iribuya disagrees that this will happen.
"I know someone who's been hoarding alcohol in anticipation for crimes 2.0, but who knows when that will happen... Alcohol values will drop unless some crime event is announced."
MEDICAL SUPPLIES END THEIR FALL
Back in February Caleian informed us of a long-term price rise seen in Small First Aid Kits, First Aid Kits and Morphine which stretched back to July 2018. It was noted that prices for these items had steadily risen in the years since, only to fall as December 2019 began.
This depression now seems to have stalled, with all three items either rising or hitting a plateau. First Aid Kits have taken a sharp rise in the past few days, going from $25k to $27.4k between the 3rd and 4th of April. And having arrested their overall slide in late February, this latest rise is the second of two small price peaks which have occurred since.
Pictured: FAK six-month price graph.
Pictured: SFAK six-month price graph.
Small First Aid Kits have enjoyed a more stable increase since the beginning of March, climbing from $17k to $20.3k at the time of writing. Much like FAKs, SFAKs enjoyed a small peak around the 4th of March, indicating that the recent upturn in warring has had a direct effect on the reversal in fortune of these two medical items.
Morphine also benefitted from the increase in active wars, as its own slump ended with early March's peak, although the price of this drug has stayed steady at around $40k ever since - roughly $10k lower than usual. The future of these items depends heavily on whether further warring will take place - we hear this is more than likely to occur.
CANS RISE TO DEFY EXPERTS
Can prices have risen across the board during March, contrary to the opinion of our market experts who predicted they would continue to fall. Cans gained a short boost over Valentine's Day earlier this year, but this soon gave way and prices continued to drop as we approach the end of the month. Prices were rising slightly when we published our previous report, but this was not enough to tempt many into predicting a positive month ahead for energy drinks.
Except ORAN, of course, who encouraged people to gamble on their price rising.
Pictured: X-MASS three-month price graph.
The top tier cans, X-MASS and Taurine Elite, have gained around $250k since the beginning of March. Rockstar Rudolph and Red Cow took a little longer to begin gaining, but they have also increased in value, adding around $170-180k since mid-March.
Munster and Santa Shooters began their ascent earlier, with a slow, gradual rise seen since mid-February. But these 20 energy cans really took off around the 19th of March, gaining $180k apiece since then.
Pictured: Santa Shooters three-month price graph.
The three new cans all began their post-Christmastown recovery in late December, but they too shot up from late on in February. Between the 17th of Feb and the 5th of April, Crocozade gained an incredible $204k. Meanwhile, Damp Valley gained $167k during the same period, and Goose Juice rose by over $100k.
When can prices get going in the spring they tend to continue rising throughout the year until around September. Energy Drinks probably won't be able to continue climbing as steep as they have been doing over the past month, however, so we expect them to switch between climbing slowly and plateauing over the coming months.
And the likelihood of this prediction coming true has been helped by the fact that fewer people are now manipulating the cans market, according to ORAN.
"There's a decline in people manipulating... last few years a lot of people would manipulate, this time around, that number has gone down to 1 or 2 maybe. I think it has to do with the cans released and many people lost cash last elim, it was just not predictable to an extent. I think that's the main cause."
WRITE THE NEXT MARKET REPORT
Do you have an interest in the item market? Are you a trader with a history of successful predictions? Then please contact Sugarvalves today with your tips and forecasts for the item market. We pay out a Donator Pack to all of those who provide us with any market information that is used in our report. And if you'd like to write the full report, please get in touch with Sugarvalves to express your interest
Original article
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