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Market Report April

sugarvalves [1963573]
Find out how Museum Day will affect you, which drugs are falling in price, and why certain weapons are now more valuable thanks to the most recent Patch List.
MUSEUM DAY

Museum Day runs from noon on the 17th until noon on the 19th of May, during which the Museum will payout 10% more points for all items and item sets. This event affects the market in a number of ways, with the most profound changes often seen in the price of points.


Pictured: Three-year points price graph.

With more points available on the market, a price drop in the immediate aftermath of Museum Day is inevitable, but we sometimes see a rise before the event as players hold on to point generating items in anticipation of the forthcoming bonus.

The first Museum Day in 2018 caused only a small rise and drop as it was a one-day event. However, when Museum Day was expanded to 48 hours in 2019, the pre-event rise was absorbed by a five-month decline in overall point prices, although a temporary easing of the curve was noticed in late April to early May.

After Museum Day 2019, points dropped in value by $2-3k, and only began to recover in July. This year, points prices have once more experienced a steady decline since Christmas. And once again, the hoarding of items for Museum Day has softened this downwards curve ever so slightly.


Pictured: Six-month points price graph.

As you can see, we've even experienced a small rise in point prices due to a small decrease in the number of sets and items being exchanged. At the same time, the value of certain Flowers has risen slightly, with many flower and plushie runners now keen to ensure they have a full set come the Museum Day event.

African Violets have increased by around $3,500 since the beginning of the month, with Cherry Blossoms and Ceibo flowers adding $1,500 to their value during the same period. Edelweiss and Tribulus Omanense have increased in price by $1,000 since May 1st, with Peonies adding $500, Banana Orchids $300, and Dahlia flowers rising by $200. Heather, Orchids and Crocuses enjoyed a negligible increase or none at all.

Many Plushies have followed suit, with Lions and Pandas adding $1,800 to their value, and Camels rising by $1,500. The remaining plushies all grew in price by between $150-$400 since early May, with the exceptions being Teddy Bears, Kittens and Sheep, whose gains were marginal or non-existent.


Pictured: One-month Lion Plushie price graph.


Pictured: One-month African Violet Flower price graph.

"A month ago I was buying low plushies for $300-500 constantly and selling them upward to $600 but not anymore. Now I am happy if I buy some plushies at all since their prices spiked up to even 700-800 for a damn simple cat plushie." -
verdenpom

"Basic plushie prices are often very stable, the only reason they might go or down is if some collector has cash suddenly to buy up a million of them slowly. Then 'recyclers' start buyin them under a certain price en-masse. Once that person has 1 million kittens to send some sweetheart the price slowly goes back" - iribuya

These temporary price-rises will be obliterated once Museum Day has finished, and how quickly each item recovers will vary from item to item. In 2019, we estimated that around 300,000 Plushie sets and 250,000 Flower sets were exchanged at the Museum during the event - in 2018, the figure for both sets was 68,000 each. This year, the figures for both could top 400,000 easily.

However, while some items such as Camel Plushies started to rise back up again in late June / early July, some items like the Wolverine Plushie and the Cherry Blossom took longer to regain their value. So if you do have any flowers leftover from Museum Day this year, you may want to wait until late Summer if you wish to sell them individually.

Finally, a quick note regarding the other items you are able to swap at the Museum. Given that the circulation of ancient coins is relatively low on the market right now, most of those for sale are priced at an extortionate rate - one player wants $25 million for a single Leopard Coin. Not happening brother.


Pictured: The typical Museum point offerings, which will increase by 10% during Museum Day.

If you pay more than $6 million for all three coins you're doing yourself a disservice, because for the same price you can purchase one Vairocana Buddha statue, which can be exchanged for the same tally of 110 points on Museum Day. But even this price is uneconomical, given the value of the 110 points you would receive is just $5.3 million based on the March 7th point price of $48,217.

"Artifact prices continue to rise in advance of Museum Day, outpacing the recent rise in Point prices. Over the last few months traders were able to scoop up artifacts and still eke out a slight profit when Points were at 46.5-47k when trading in then. Now, even with the upcoming extra 10% on Museum Day, the vast majority of artifacts are priced higher than profitable." - SinCitySinner

The prices of both points and individual rare items will change between now and Museum Day, as the price of points is determined solely by movements within the points market - unlike the DP pawn price, it is not controlled by the Economist. This means that the price of points may continue to rise slightly ahead of Museum Day, but this rise will be temporary and short-lived.

If you time your point sales right, it may be worth it to pay slightly over the odds to complete your full Coin, Plushie or Qu'ran Set. But I find it unlikely that there will be value in outright purchasing any of the individual items such as the Sculptures or the Amulet - unless you're going to buymug when you do it.


DRUGS

Cannabis has predictably tanked after enjoying a temporary rise thanks to last month's 420 event. Weed reached a high of $12,357 on the 10th of April and hovered around this value until the 19th, at which point it began a nosedive to a price of $7,000 today. This valuation is roughly the same as what it was before prices began to rise in anticipation of 420 in mid-February.


Pictured: Three-month Cannabis price graph.

When everyone came down from their 420 celebrations, it appeared they did so with a renewed sense of clarity, as Xanax demand began to rise almost immediately afterwards. From the 20th of April until the 7th of May Xanax's price rose almost continuously, gaining roughly $2,500 during that time, holding a current value of $835,000.

Having endured several price humps throughout 2020 already, Xanax has some way to go before it returns to its late-2019 price of $845,000. At its current valuation, some may think that Xanax is worth speculating on given all the rumours of a new massive war on the horizon. But it's worth remembering that Xanax didn't make waves during 2019's Insurgency / TUN war, and actually enjoyed most of its gains during the latter part of the year when Elimination took off. If you are going to invest in Xanax, buy it for personal use, not profit.

As for the other drugs, Speed has fallen slightly but continues to look relatively stable overall, as does PCP, which recovered from a small dip towards the end of April. Opium continues to enjoy good form following a lull in mid-February, as does LSD, which has sharply risen in price over the past few days to build on its three-month upward curve.

Ketamine also continues to rise and hasn't been as continuously expensive as it is now since January 2017. The value of Vicodin had been falling sharply since 2019 when new legislation prevented the VicoXan bazaar trickery of ye olde Torn. However, Vicodin began to bounce back in mid-March, but the huge gains it made in that month have almost been wiped out during April. Ecstasy and Shrooms have done nothing of note for months.

"Canabis was guaranteed to go up before the event, but as soon as the event started all players started undercutting and causing the drop. I put 5,000 units on the market that I had just saved up without hoarding from others. Some poor person bought them for that moment's high spiked price."

"One hour later the value dropped 20% and only go down more the following day. NEVER buy supplies increased by events during the event to make a profit. Start saving up a month or more in advance slowly, Beer day is coming in August, so if you want to give it a try slowly buy some these weeks." -
iribuya


WEAPONRY

The Patch List for the 28th of April revealed that numerous changes have been made to the efficacy of certain weapons, and as you might expect, this has had an impact on their value.

"Blowgun prices have (at least temporarily) gone up dramatically. Were around 2k each, by that night (2000 tct) the cheapest on the market was at 50k." - SinCitySinner

Blowguns are now priced at a more modest average of $9,000, with their highest average being $24,000 on May 1st. The reason for this rise is that poison effects are now highly likely when a successful Blowgun attack is made, having been increased to 85%-100%, with a small overall reduction made to the damage output.

Conversely, Flamethrowers saw their burning damage reduced slightly, but their prices haven't suffered as a result, and they remain the fourth most expensive secondary item in Torn.


Pictured: One-month Flamethrower price graph.

The vast majority of changes were made to temporary weapons, with damage increased for Stick Grenades, Grenades, HEGs, Claymore Mines and Nail Bombs. Small price rises were noted with the two Grenade types, but HEG and Claymores saw no changes. Nail Bombs have increased significantly though, with this recent boost helping them to recover their value after late April's price drop.

Ninja Stars and Throwing Knives gained in value after their damage was also increased at a cost of their accuracy. Both items lost most of their gains shortly after the initial increase, but Ninja Stars remain a few hundred dollars higher than they were before the changes were made.

Molotov Cocktails enjoyed the greatest rise, as their damage was increased alongside the provision of an initial burst hit when used. Molotovs gained almost $70,000 in the aftermath of the April 28th Patch List, and are currently valued at $200,000.


Pictured: One-month Molotov Cocktail price graph.

The price of Molotovs may change further in the near future, for better or for worse, with the Gas Station scheduled to be the next company type to undergo improvements. Seven-star Gas Stations currently provide Molotovs in exchange for job points, with the ten-star special providing a 50% boost to burning damage and duration.

Any changes to this company will likely alter the price of Molotov Cocktails. And given that the onus is on improving low performing industries like the Gas Station, it appears likely that Molotovs will become popular and possibly more powerful in the hands of Gas Station employees. But this could lead to more Molotovs being exchanged for job points, which may have an overall negative impact on their future value.

"Very interesting to see the changes in temps have some effect. Reading about the gas-station update coming still makes me scared to invest in Molotovs. Often an upgrade can go both ways." iribuya


BOOSTERS


The Book of Carols reduces your education course duration by six hours, and it seems many of you have decided to bone up on your studies while under lockdown, as their prices rocketed in late-April.

"Book of Carols is 100% going to rise, just a matter of waiting since their supply only get replenished during Christmas time. Why anyone would pay $15m for 6-hour reduction beats me, but I won't judge." - iribuya


Pictured: One-month Book of Carols price graph.

FHCs also look to be picking up again slowly. The huge price hump that ended in February 2020 saw this product hit a high of $15 million in September 2018, but $3 million of this was stripped away gradually over the following 18 months. FHCs have gained nearly $400,000 since late February though, so perhaps a full recovery is on the horizon.

E-DVDs have stopped rising and are now valued at roughly $3.3 million. Porno's post-Christmas slump ended in March with a one-month plateau, and April bore witness to the suspiciously white shoots of recovery. Overall, E-DVDs still look cheap compared to their historical price, so we expect a small rise to occur again soon.

"DVD's have gone up, could that be the USA stimulus checks? Younger gamers getting bored of playing LoL or Fortnite instead jumping into flashy and exciting text-based games like Torn? I say Happy Times! Cans and FHC on the rise because of unknown reasons to me."
iribuya


DONATOR PACKS RISE

There hasn't been a change in the Donator Pack pawn shop price since February, and this marks the longest period in which it hasn't changed since 2018, when it remained untouched between October of that year and February 2019.

Nevertheless, there has been a small increase in the market value of Donator Packs, as after a month of stagnation during which the average price almost fell below $24 million for the first time in years, nearly $400k has been added on to their price gradually since late April.

"Donator Packs are still a mystery to me. They were $200,000 above pawn on the market for a LONG time, and now suddenly last week they have left the duality and gone $700,000 above pawn price. My guess is that Grenade Pack switcheroo (putting grenade packs for DPs prices in bazaar) is slowly dying, but all it takes is a bunch of new players to not know this 'scam' for it to work again. Let's see if the Pawn price changes to raise the floor price." iribuya


MEDICAL ITEMS

Boxes of Medical Supplies are gradually rising in price, as speculation over a forthcoming mega-war has seen them grow from $810,000 in early April to $880,000 today. Small First Aid Kits and First Aid Kits have obviously risen too, increasing in price from $20,000 to $22,000 and $25,000 to $26,000 respectively.

"Some traders have started a project to stabilize the med prices by always have a massive bulk to cover times of shortages and hoard during periods of less medication needs." - iribuya


CLOTHING MANIPULATION


A player called SlyFFF alerted us to some odd goings-on in the clothing market. They told us that Fisherman Hats, Halternecks, Macintoshes and others had risen by 300% recently, and they believed that the reason for this was that players had begun to discover their secret capabilities.

"Clothes are not collectable, but secret enhancers, when used in sets (i.e. Bermudas Cork hat, polo shirt). Depending on the season, the sets, etc it may help in gym, in fight, in luck, in casino, etc. I personally beleive that traveling with the proper set to the right country will trigger a secret event."


SlyFFF went on to say that this market is extremely lucrative, with some clothes being resold for eight figures having been bought for around a million. It may be that some players believe that these items have special hidden powers - they absolutely don't - but SinCitySinner feels that the real reason for these price rises is trader manipulation.

"Two or more players selling back and forth to each other at inflated prices and ”spiking" the values while they buy up those on sale then mark up the prices. Macintosh, for instance, got up to values around 40m recently."


Make sure you lookout for this when purchasing items from the item market. The average value of low-circulation items can be artificially increased by two traders who use this technique, and this allows them to justify higher prices when they are listed in their bazaar afterwards.

"Having little items in circulation on the market means they are easily manipulated. Boob tube in 4 different bazaar for $4m and the next one is $20m, well all it takes is $16 million to buy the cheaper ones and then hope someone buys one for $20m after thinking that's the price."

"These schemes are often of a short duration, but I'm sure they work, since we keep seeing it happen. My advice: Buying something 'rare' always check the yearly value to see if it's possibliy manipulated. For traders, if someone comes with 50 weird clothing items always check the price of your 'auto-sheet' since it could be messed with!"



THE MARKET RECYCLING PROJECT

Torn City Times contributors iribuya and ORAN have begun a unique project whose mission is to stabilise the price of certain Torn City items. In their forum thread, these two trading giants, along with Unique and Lente, have promised to purchase certain items in bulk at $10 above their own sales prices.


Empty Blood Bags - Bulk= 1,000 Units
First Aid Kits - Bulk= 1,000 Units
Small First Aid Kits - Bulk= Units
Grenades - Bulk= 5,000 Units
HEG - Bulk= 2,500 Units
Beer - Bulk= 5,000 Units
Xanax - Bulk= 500 Units



Obviously, these traders do not allow you to purchase from their own bazaars and resell to them, as that would defeat the purpose of this mission - securing a market share of these extremely valuable items. A stable market for warring materials is certainly desirable, but when a handful of players control the vast majority of its stock, it will be interesting to see how far their charity extends.

"This is a project I've wanted to do since I started trading. Now, with the partnering of ORAN, Unique and Lente, I feel confident we can give it a good chance. The goal is to always have faction-supplies in our bazaars that can cover DAYS of supplies to Torn's warring factions, and at the same time provide the option for younger players to make some money helping us buy up the market from all sellers below our listings."

"We're still in the beginning of the project and adjusting our buy/sell prices, since we need to find a balance that we can afford so we don't get stuck with a million Morphines. So if you are a big faction leader; visit our one-stop-shop bazaars and buy your monthly needs in a minute. If you are a smaller player wanting to learn the market with very low to no risks, check out our recycling project." -
iribuya


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