sugarvalves [1963573] —
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Find out how a major change has affected point prices, why you need to buy Business Class Tickets now, what will happen to Feathery Hotel Coupons, and more trading info in our latest Market Report.
BEER DAY IMMINENT
International Beer Day was originally set to begin today, the 7th of August, at noon, but the period of scheduled downtime meant that the event had to be delayed for 24 hours. Torn's merry band of alcoholics will therefore have a few extra hours to purchase their beer supplies ahead of the new start time at noon on Saturday.
Pictured: Players in Torn and IRL this weekend.
Earlier this week, we revealed that Bottles of Beer had gained in value by $800 over the course of the year, with $500 of that added in the past month alone. A similar story was seen with the price of Beer Kegs, which had added roughly $2.5 million of value since January 2020.
In the two days since this article was released the two beer items have suffered differing fortunes. Bottles of Beer have actually fallen in value by $25 a pop, which doesn't sound much, but is quite significant when you consider they were rising by double this on a daily basis beforehand.
Beer Kegs, on the other hand, have enjoyed a massive boost in their average price, leaping from $11 million on the 4th to $12.7 million on the 5th. Approximately 200 of these items are given out once a month to subscribers, and it appears that the 100 or so people who have used their kegs lately have helped to raise their price considerably.
Pictured: Beer Kegs one-year circulation graph.
Beer Kegs are currently at their highest price for about two years and will dip massively after the 10th of August. The same will happen to Beer Bottles, of course, but to a lesser extent than their keg-based cousins.
"It was interesting to see the rise in beer prices, there were a few end users buying up 10ks as well as resellers but it was mostly faction leaders stocking up the bulks." - ORAN
PAWN POINTS PRICE
July saw a major change made in the way that point prices are determined, with their pawn shop price now determined by Chedburn and The Economist, as opposed to an algorithm based on the behaviour of the market. This change was made on the 7th of July when the market price of points was around $45k and the pawnshop price was $44.5k. Chedburn then changed the pawn price to $45k, and as a result, their value has remained consistently above $45k for most of July
Pictured: Points one-month price graph.
"Points are still struggling to rise due to the Pawn Shop pricing update. I believe that the pawn shop now acts as an anchor to the price of points and won't let it rise... So unless we see Ched manually changing pawn price, I don't see the points prices rising." - _Scofield_
If the Economist's recent lack of intervention in the Donator Pack pawn price is any indication, it appears that the pawnshop price for points will remain steady too. The DP pawn price hasn't been changed since February, and I would wager that the pawn value for points will not be altered with any regularity either.
"I personally think points being fixed at 45k brings trust into points system, end users i'm not so sure but the ones that buy to store cash in points helps them a lot with the peace of mind. Points price for now depend on pawn price as well as flowers/plushies. Once the initial museum day sellers run out, points will have their price increase it will also positively affect flowers/plushies market elimination coming up will also help and won't down-trend unless something goes very wrong."
BUSINESS CLASS TICKETS
Business Class Tickets experienced a predictable rise in July thanks to the Tiger Day event, which required players to fly to South Africa to enjoy the 5x hunting experience bonus on offer. Having started the month at $7 million apiece, BCTs rose to a high of $9 million on the 30th, before falling to their current price of $7.8 million.
Pictured: BCT one-month price graph.
A savvy trader with liquid cash would be well-advised to pick up BCTs at their current price before the market picks up again. A quick look at the Calendar shows no fewer than four events between now and the end of the year where BCTs may come in handy.
The first event is Elimination. While flying isn't part of most teams' strategy, high-profile targets have been known to flee the city on occasion during the event, as have those who wish to get away from the carnage and indulge in a little light shopping. I have also heard rumours that some prospective Elimination leaders have already bought up hundreds of tickets to give away free to their side's weakest members, with the aim being to send a hundred n00bs out of harm's way during a crucial moment in the Elimination competition.
Pictured: Elimination leaders when they see their team is full of level 5's.
However, most people will be saving up their BCTs for Tourism Day, which takes place from the 26th to the 28th. This event doubles your permitted travel capacity, a bonus which applies to your total capacity after all other bonuses have been applied. With a large suitcase in your possession and the full gamut of special bonuses applied, one player can return to Torn with a maximum of 88 items during Tourism Day, with one trip capable of paying for a BCT many times over.
Trick or Treat is another event which may affect the price of BCTs, as flying abroad can help players to protect their candy stash. It is unknown how this year's Trick or Treat event will work given that the format changed markedly from the first to the second iteration. Regardless, it looks like a good strategy would be to collect as much candy as possible, and then fly off to Dubai to eat it in peace.
The final event of the year which will affect the price of BCTs is Dog Tags. This competition runs throughout most of November, and during its latter stages, we often see some of the top ten fly off to foreign shores in a bid to protect their tags. Longer flights are preferred by those who are content with their tag haul and believe it is enough to satisfy their ambitions, but those who are escaping temporarily will want shorter flights, hence the use of BCTs.
The demand for BCTs over the next few months will likely see their price rise and remain at a decent valuation. We expect a drop to happen towards the end of November, with their prices not expected to pick up again until late Spring 2021.
Pictured: BCT one-year price graph.
FEATHERY HOTEL COUPONS
Feathery Hotel Coupons are often in demand at this time of year, with prices tending to rise the most from January to July, before hitting a plateau and falling after September. Their ability to refill energy and increase happiness makes FHCs of great use during attacking competitions like Elimination, but last year, their value did not rise at all, and actually fell in the run up to the event itself.
Pictured: FHC three-year price graph.
There are two main reasons why we think this happened. The first is that many traders stocked up on FHCs with the intention of using them to print money during Elimination. A saturated market always leads to a downturn in price, but with many sellers having had their fingers burnt in 2019, it may be that the 2020 market recovers this time around due to fewer FHCs being traded.
The second reason why FHCs were so cheap last year was the low valuation of the FHG stock, which pays out Feathery Hotel Coupons to those who own at least 2,000,000 shares. This time last year FHG was worth $256 per share, whereas this year, their valuation is almost double that. It may be that some FHG investors have sold their stock due to their good fortune over the past twelve months. If this is the case, there may be fewer FHCs than last year on the market in 2020.
ENERGY DRINKS
Energy drinks tend to rise in tandem with FHCs, and that is precisely what has happened over the past few months. All of the original six cans have gained around $600k since March, despite them all varying massively in their base value. This means that the biggest gains have been seen by Munster and Santa Shooters, with $600k representing a 50% rise in their March price fo $1.2 million.
Pictured: Munster three-month price graph.
The gains for the 20 energy cans have levelled off over the course of July, with a mild increase seen in the 25 and 30 energy cans. The low energy cans have had mixed fortunes too. Goose Juice enjoyed a big boost in May but has flatlined since. Damp Valley rose gradually from January to June and then fell for a month before plateauing in July. Crocozade enjoyed a similar rise in the first half of the year, but has spent the past two months at roughly the same price point.
"Both FHCs & Cans are extremely unpredictable this year, we're quite not sure if can tasting event is coming back or not. guess we'll have to wait to be sure either way, if event doesn't show up, prices skyrocket, event shows up prices fall. There was an element of surprise last year i assume this year there won't be any surprises... but we'll never know." - ORAN
Demand for all cans may pick up over the next two months due to Elimination and the CaffeineCon event. Last year's CaffeineCon event saw thousands of free low-energy cans given out over the course of a week, with a can bonus event taking place bang in the middle. This year, no additional cans will be given out at all, but we can confirm that all energy drinks will once more receive a boost to their effects, with a 2x bonus in effect from noon on the 14th to the 16th of October.
"I don't really see the cans and FHC prices raising much further than it already has, because of the unpredictability of Ched's mind. Many investors lost a fortune hoarding these last year in lieu of Eliminations, when Chedburn out of the blue launched the new cheaper cans which were given out for free. Having spoken to a couple people, no one's seems as curious about stocking up supplies for this year." - _Scofield_
XANAX
Xanax is currently at its lowest average price for four years, with its August 5th valuation of $827k making this essential drug the cheapest it has been since October 2016. It appears that now would be the ideal time to stock up on Xanax ahead of Elimination and Dog Tags because we don't expect it to fall much further below its current price.
In fact, as soon as factions begin warring again, we believe the introduction of a 5 energy cost for joining a wall should see its demand rise. Demand has fallen lately due to the creation of the Market Recycling program by a group of traders, a program which ended in June. Xanax prices were then expected to start regaining some of their value, but we believe the impact upon the reviving industry of the latest faction changes may have stalled this recovery somewhat.
The popularity of World Population Day was also predicted to boost Xanax use considerably, but this didn't translate into anything more than a small price increase. However, once revivers figure out how to streamline their services, we feel it is likely their industry will recover, as will the price of Xanax, as everyone starts stocking up for Elimination.
"Xanax fall wasn't surprising but the fact it's taking this long is unbelievable, there were certain spikes but were however just temporary, there was one spike when Xanax hit 838k then someone undercut to 833k and everyone else followed. There could be multiple things to blame, the recent factions change, maybe for some factions it's a peaceful month for books or buy muggers are not mugging like they used to?" - ORAN
MEDICAL ITEMS
We've reported numerous times on the strange, long-term price hump that medical items seem to have endured over the past few years, and it appears there has been a new development to this trend over the month of July. The price hump began in early 2018, with the value of the two First Aid Kits and Morphine rising gradually until September 2019. At this point, their value slowly dropped, and only started to recover again in February 2020.
Pictured: Small First Aid Kit three-year price graph.
Yet it appears that this recovery is over already, as during July the value of all three major medical items has fallen considerably. SFAKs were valued at $22.3k in May, but are now priced at just $19.2k, which much of this drop having occurred during July. Regular First Aid Kits have endured a more gradual fall, losing $3k from the middle of May to the end of July, with a gain of $1k noticed in the past few days.
"The Small First Aid Kit's largest use was in territory wars for respect. Without friendly wall slutting, the small first aid kit will probably see its value diminish outside of competitions." - MrNewOrleans
Morphine has behaved slightly differently, as unlike the medkits, it did not experience a recovery in early 2020. In fact, Morphine has continued to fall drastically since September 2019, when it was worth roughly $20k more than it is now. $10k alone has been wiped off Morphine's average price over the past two months, and while this drop has now flattened out since the beginning of August, we are unsure as to whether this represents a turnaround for the drug.
WEAPONS AND ARMOR
The TCT has heard a rumour that some people are hoarding temporary weapons in order to achieve the Temporary Mastery merit. ORAN told The Times that temps are interesting right now due to the large quantities being pumped out by rackets, and said he had personally acquired temps in large quantities on several occasions lately from racket owners - a decision he believes he might come to regret.
"Although I managed to sell a few at a profit, I'm not sure how longer it is before they fall in value, especially the flash grenades that suffered from the helm buffs. Of course, elimination will help but after that, it's gonna be pretty uncertain."
ORAN added that it is Flash Grenades which are going to be mostly affected by fluctuations at the moment, given that they are being pumped out by rackets and have also been effectively nerfed by the buff provided to the Welding Helmet. He predicts that Flash Grenades will rise in price during Elimination, but will likely crash in the weeks after it finishes.
And finally, here is a quick note on a trend which Paul noticed in the Full Body Armor market this month.
"High quality (35.40+) full body armors virtually absent from item market (last page) - there were dozens last month but the word is out that they are better than flexible body armor since it protects the arms and groin in addition to the chest." - Paul
International Beer Day was originally set to begin today, the 7th of August, at noon, but the period of scheduled downtime meant that the event had to be delayed for 24 hours. Torn's merry band of alcoholics will therefore have a few extra hours to purchase their beer supplies ahead of the new start time at noon on Saturday.
Pictured: Players in Torn and IRL this weekend.
Earlier this week, we revealed that Bottles of Beer had gained in value by $800 over the course of the year, with $500 of that added in the past month alone. A similar story was seen with the price of Beer Kegs, which had added roughly $2.5 million of value since January 2020.
In the two days since this article was released the two beer items have suffered differing fortunes. Bottles of Beer have actually fallen in value by $25 a pop, which doesn't sound much, but is quite significant when you consider they were rising by double this on a daily basis beforehand.
Beer Kegs, on the other hand, have enjoyed a massive boost in their average price, leaping from $11 million on the 4th to $12.7 million on the 5th. Approximately 200 of these items are given out once a month to subscribers, and it appears that the 100 or so people who have used their kegs lately have helped to raise their price considerably.
Pictured: Beer Kegs one-year circulation graph.
Beer Kegs are currently at their highest price for about two years and will dip massively after the 10th of August. The same will happen to Beer Bottles, of course, but to a lesser extent than their keg-based cousins.
"It was interesting to see the rise in beer prices, there were a few end users buying up 10ks as well as resellers but it was mostly faction leaders stocking up the bulks." - ORAN
PAWN POINTS PRICE
July saw a major change made in the way that point prices are determined, with their pawn shop price now determined by Chedburn and The Economist, as opposed to an algorithm based on the behaviour of the market. This change was made on the 7th of July when the market price of points was around $45k and the pawnshop price was $44.5k. Chedburn then changed the pawn price to $45k, and as a result, their value has remained consistently above $45k for most of July
Pictured: Points one-month price graph.
"Points are still struggling to rise due to the Pawn Shop pricing update. I believe that the pawn shop now acts as an anchor to the price of points and won't let it rise... So unless we see Ched manually changing pawn price, I don't see the points prices rising." - _Scofield_
If the Economist's recent lack of intervention in the Donator Pack pawn price is any indication, it appears that the pawnshop price for points will remain steady too. The DP pawn price hasn't been changed since February, and I would wager that the pawn value for points will not be altered with any regularity either.
"I personally think points being fixed at 45k brings trust into points system, end users i'm not so sure but the ones that buy to store cash in points helps them a lot with the peace of mind. Points price for now depend on pawn price as well as flowers/plushies. Once the initial museum day sellers run out, points will have their price increase it will also positively affect flowers/plushies market elimination coming up will also help and won't down-trend unless something goes very wrong."
BUSINESS CLASS TICKETS
Business Class Tickets experienced a predictable rise in July thanks to the Tiger Day event, which required players to fly to South Africa to enjoy the 5x hunting experience bonus on offer. Having started the month at $7 million apiece, BCTs rose to a high of $9 million on the 30th, before falling to their current price of $7.8 million.
Pictured: BCT one-month price graph.
A savvy trader with liquid cash would be well-advised to pick up BCTs at their current price before the market picks up again. A quick look at the Calendar shows no fewer than four events between now and the end of the year where BCTs may come in handy.
The first event is Elimination. While flying isn't part of most teams' strategy, high-profile targets have been known to flee the city on occasion during the event, as have those who wish to get away from the carnage and indulge in a little light shopping. I have also heard rumours that some prospective Elimination leaders have already bought up hundreds of tickets to give away free to their side's weakest members, with the aim being to send a hundred n00bs out of harm's way during a crucial moment in the Elimination competition.
Pictured: Elimination leaders when they see their team is full of level 5's.
However, most people will be saving up their BCTs for Tourism Day, which takes place from the 26th to the 28th. This event doubles your permitted travel capacity, a bonus which applies to your total capacity after all other bonuses have been applied. With a large suitcase in your possession and the full gamut of special bonuses applied, one player can return to Torn with a maximum of 88 items during Tourism Day, with one trip capable of paying for a BCT many times over.
Trick or Treat is another event which may affect the price of BCTs, as flying abroad can help players to protect their candy stash. It is unknown how this year's Trick or Treat event will work given that the format changed markedly from the first to the second iteration. Regardless, it looks like a good strategy would be to collect as much candy as possible, and then fly off to Dubai to eat it in peace.
The final event of the year which will affect the price of BCTs is Dog Tags. This competition runs throughout most of November, and during its latter stages, we often see some of the top ten fly off to foreign shores in a bid to protect their tags. Longer flights are preferred by those who are content with their tag haul and believe it is enough to satisfy their ambitions, but those who are escaping temporarily will want shorter flights, hence the use of BCTs.
The demand for BCTs over the next few months will likely see their price rise and remain at a decent valuation. We expect a drop to happen towards the end of November, with their prices not expected to pick up again until late Spring 2021.
Pictured: BCT one-year price graph.
FEATHERY HOTEL COUPONS
Feathery Hotel Coupons are often in demand at this time of year, with prices tending to rise the most from January to July, before hitting a plateau and falling after September. Their ability to refill energy and increase happiness makes FHCs of great use during attacking competitions like Elimination, but last year, their value did not rise at all, and actually fell in the run up to the event itself.
Pictured: FHC three-year price graph.
There are two main reasons why we think this happened. The first is that many traders stocked up on FHCs with the intention of using them to print money during Elimination. A saturated market always leads to a downturn in price, but with many sellers having had their fingers burnt in 2019, it may be that the 2020 market recovers this time around due to fewer FHCs being traded.
The second reason why FHCs were so cheap last year was the low valuation of the FHG stock, which pays out Feathery Hotel Coupons to those who own at least 2,000,000 shares. This time last year FHG was worth $256 per share, whereas this year, their valuation is almost double that. It may be that some FHG investors have sold their stock due to their good fortune over the past twelve months. If this is the case, there may be fewer FHCs than last year on the market in 2020.
ENERGY DRINKS
Energy drinks tend to rise in tandem with FHCs, and that is precisely what has happened over the past few months. All of the original six cans have gained around $600k since March, despite them all varying massively in their base value. This means that the biggest gains have been seen by Munster and Santa Shooters, with $600k representing a 50% rise in their March price fo $1.2 million.
Pictured: Munster three-month price graph.
The gains for the 20 energy cans have levelled off over the course of July, with a mild increase seen in the 25 and 30 energy cans. The low energy cans have had mixed fortunes too. Goose Juice enjoyed a big boost in May but has flatlined since. Damp Valley rose gradually from January to June and then fell for a month before plateauing in July. Crocozade enjoyed a similar rise in the first half of the year, but has spent the past two months at roughly the same price point.
"Both FHCs & Cans are extremely unpredictable this year, we're quite not sure if can tasting event is coming back or not. guess we'll have to wait to be sure either way, if event doesn't show up, prices skyrocket, event shows up prices fall. There was an element of surprise last year i assume this year there won't be any surprises... but we'll never know." - ORAN
Demand for all cans may pick up over the next two months due to Elimination and the CaffeineCon event. Last year's CaffeineCon event saw thousands of free low-energy cans given out over the course of a week, with a can bonus event taking place bang in the middle. This year, no additional cans will be given out at all, but we can confirm that all energy drinks will once more receive a boost to their effects, with a 2x bonus in effect from noon on the 14th to the 16th of October.
"I don't really see the cans and FHC prices raising much further than it already has, because of the unpredictability of Ched's mind. Many investors lost a fortune hoarding these last year in lieu of Eliminations, when Chedburn out of the blue launched the new cheaper cans which were given out for free. Having spoken to a couple people, no one's seems as curious about stocking up supplies for this year." - _Scofield_
XANAX
Xanax is currently at its lowest average price for four years, with its August 5th valuation of $827k making this essential drug the cheapest it has been since October 2016. It appears that now would be the ideal time to stock up on Xanax ahead of Elimination and Dog Tags because we don't expect it to fall much further below its current price.
In fact, as soon as factions begin warring again, we believe the introduction of a 5 energy cost for joining a wall should see its demand rise. Demand has fallen lately due to the creation of the Market Recycling program by a group of traders, a program which ended in June. Xanax prices were then expected to start regaining some of their value, but we believe the impact upon the reviving industry of the latest faction changes may have stalled this recovery somewhat.
The popularity of World Population Day was also predicted to boost Xanax use considerably, but this didn't translate into anything more than a small price increase. However, once revivers figure out how to streamline their services, we feel it is likely their industry will recover, as will the price of Xanax, as everyone starts stocking up for Elimination.
"Xanax fall wasn't surprising but the fact it's taking this long is unbelievable, there were certain spikes but were however just temporary, there was one spike when Xanax hit 838k then someone undercut to 833k and everyone else followed. There could be multiple things to blame, the recent factions change, maybe for some factions it's a peaceful month for books or buy muggers are not mugging like they used to?" - ORAN
MEDICAL ITEMS
We've reported numerous times on the strange, long-term price hump that medical items seem to have endured over the past few years, and it appears there has been a new development to this trend over the month of July. The price hump began in early 2018, with the value of the two First Aid Kits and Morphine rising gradually until September 2019. At this point, their value slowly dropped, and only started to recover again in February 2020.
Pictured: Small First Aid Kit three-year price graph.
Yet it appears that this recovery is over already, as during July the value of all three major medical items has fallen considerably. SFAKs were valued at $22.3k in May, but are now priced at just $19.2k, which much of this drop having occurred during July. Regular First Aid Kits have endured a more gradual fall, losing $3k from the middle of May to the end of July, with a gain of $1k noticed in the past few days.
"The Small First Aid Kit's largest use was in territory wars for respect. Without friendly wall slutting, the small first aid kit will probably see its value diminish outside of competitions." - MrNewOrleans
Morphine has behaved slightly differently, as unlike the medkits, it did not experience a recovery in early 2020. In fact, Morphine has continued to fall drastically since September 2019, when it was worth roughly $20k more than it is now. $10k alone has been wiped off Morphine's average price over the past two months, and while this drop has now flattened out since the beginning of August, we are unsure as to whether this represents a turnaround for the drug.
WEAPONS AND ARMOR
The TCT has heard a rumour that some people are hoarding temporary weapons in order to achieve the Temporary Mastery merit. ORAN told The Times that temps are interesting right now due to the large quantities being pumped out by rackets, and said he had personally acquired temps in large quantities on several occasions lately from racket owners - a decision he believes he might come to regret.
"Although I managed to sell a few at a profit, I'm not sure how longer it is before they fall in value, especially the flash grenades that suffered from the helm buffs. Of course, elimination will help but after that, it's gonna be pretty uncertain."
ORAN added that it is Flash Grenades which are going to be mostly affected by fluctuations at the moment, given that they are being pumped out by rackets and have also been effectively nerfed by the buff provided to the Welding Helmet. He predicts that Flash Grenades will rise in price during Elimination, but will likely crash in the weeks after it finishes.
And finally, here is a quick note on a trend which Paul noticed in the Full Body Armor market this month.
"High quality (35.40+) full body armors virtually absent from item market (last page) - there were dozens last month but the word is out that they are better than flexible body armor since it protects the arms and groin in addition to the chest." - Paul
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