sugarvalves [1963573] —
Original article
Read our report into how September's events affected item market prices, and how the forthcoming CaffeineCon, Trick or Treat, Dog Tags, and World Diabetes Day will do so over October.
With Elimination done and dusted for another year there will surely be a dip in the market prices for many essential items. But how low will prices go? And will the likes of Diabetes Day, Dog Tags, Trick or Treat, and CaffeineCon help to level things off?
Let's find out as we take a look at September's Market Report. And be forewarned, this one is a hefty old unit of an article.
CAFFEINECON
CaffeineCon will provide a 2x boost to the effects of all Energy Drinks from the 14th to the 16th of October. This event was created in 2019 to mark the release of three new low-energy drinks, with thousands of cans of Crocozade, Damp Valley, and Goose Juice given away over the course of a week.
This year, there will be no such giveaway, but the 48-hour booster event will remain in place. We anticipate a small rise in can prices will occur in the run-up to CaffeineCon as players look to take advantage of this event, however, as we'll see later, other forthcoming events may have a greater impact on the value of energy drinks.
"With the rise in can prices in anticipation of the upcoming event CaffeineCon, daily training cost of 30e cans is basically equivalent to that of FHCs so I expect FHCs to recover some value for the next few days after which cans and FHCs both shall start crashing." - _Scofield_
"I see lots of people are looking into buying the 30e ones and I think their prices might increase. The rest may remain stable at their current prices. Not sure if it's because of books or just treating themselves after elim to catch up on the missed training. Can't recall seeing that last year tho." - ORAN
The top-tier cans have had a good few months, with X-Mass and Taurine adding $100k to their value during September alone. The opposite is true of the remaining original cans, though, with the 25 and 20 energy cans falling by roughly $100k over the past month.
The new cans haven't fared much better either. Crocozade is down $70k, Damp Valley $10k, and Goose Juice has flatlined, despite the latter enjoying a $50k rise in the middle of September.
"Small cans are overpriced already that’s why the price didn’t move. I remember few people mass buying them back in May/June (rapid_riser comes to my mind." - Anghel
Pictured: Goose Juice one-month price graph.
Based on our traders' comments, it looks like the top tier cans may be the ones to invest in, despite their existing healthy price. However, everyone expects can prices to crash after CaffeineCon, but iribuya feels the impact of this event may not be immediate.
"After can day I expect a massive decrease in can values in anticipation of Christmas Town. It's possible this is slightly delayed because supply was used up during can day." - iribuya
TRICK OR TREAT RETURNS
A number of unannounced additions to the Trick or Treat event may lead to a change in the way item market prices respond to this seasonal Halloween giveaway.
The basic premise of Trick or Treat is that players must purchase a Halloween basket in order to collect treats, treats which are themselves collected by attacking other players. Your Halloween Basket will level-up based on how many treats you have collected, with each level increasing your treat collection rate and opening up a brand new array of purchasable basket upgrades.
Pictured: Halloween baskets, in case you are having a hard time picturing what they look like due to some sort of brain injury.
Treats can be exchanged during the competition to upgrade your Halloween Basket, or you can exchange them at the end of the event to obtain candy, alcohol and energy drinks. Without giving too much away, I believe that the new upgrades added for this year's Trick or Treat may result in more players plumping for upgrades over consumables, at least to begin with. (Note: Treats and upgrades from 2019 will carry over to 2020)
If most people choose to avoid upgrading, then low-value cans, booze and candies will all suffer a big drop in price. However, 8,000+ people took part in 2019, and if we get the same participation rate this year, and they decide to focus on upgrading their baskets, we may see more high-value items take a price hit instead.
Conversely, certain weapons, armors and wearables may enjoy a small price rise this month thanks to the bonus effects they provide during Trick or Treat. The items which affect your treat count were revealed in the newspaper last year, but the new upgrade system may mean that fewer players make use of them in 2020.
"tl;dr Start Stacking for it, because it sounds like early Christmas." - iribuya
WORLD TOURISM DAY
World Tourism Day took place from the 26th to the 28th of September, with all players seeing their travel item allowance doubled for all returning flights. WTD used to cause the price of points to drop almost immediately, due to the huge increase in plushies and flowers imported into the city due to this event.
In recent years, sellers have become savvier, and are now more likely to hold on to their stocks of plushies and flowers to sell throughout the year to avoid depressing the points market. That being said, there was still a noticeable rise in the number of sets being exchanged over the past week, as these Museum point payout figures demonstrate.
MUSEUM POINTS PAYOUTS
30th: 814,210
29th: 924,630
28th: 1,026,670
27th: 556,020
26th: 584,080
25th: 520,170
24th: 612,110
Point prices have dropped by a couple of hundred dollars recently, but they have been pretty stable since their pawn price was fixed at $45,000 earlier this year. Interestingly, our trading experts appear to be divided on whether this change to a fixed point price was a good thing.
"It's been a breath of fresh air for the point market to be stable. The steady pawn price gave more confidence in traders to have low margin set prices and also made gamblers use pawn more often to sell off their points (causing a good balance between supply and demand). Thanks Ched and Economist." - iribuya
"Fixing the pawn price of points has done nothing other than act as an anchor holding the price of points down. The much-anticipated rise in points prices for elims did not happen due to this very reason. There were times when points rose to around 46k on the market but only for a few minutes before it went down again. I'm not really a fan of that update." - _Scofield_
How much WTD will affect the market as 2020 comes to a conclusion depends on how many plushies and flowers were imported last month, and how quickly their owners decide to sell them over the coming months. While we cannot answer the latter, the former can be discerned by viewing the circulation graphs of plushies and flowers. The following circulation graph for Camel Plushies indicates that 130,000 were brought in to torn over WTD, compared to their typical average of about 10,000 over a two-day period.
Pictured: Camel Plushie one-month circulation graph.
As you can see, there was a noticeable dip just after WTD where the circulation for Camel Plushies dropped by 22,000. This indicates that approximately 32,000 were exchanged at the Museum between 28th-30th if we factor in the typical average rise of 10,000 per day.
Obviously there are different trends for different plushies, with most patterns determined by their value. The upward curve in circulation gets flatter as you drop down to lower value plushies, but this trend is bucked by the Jaguar Plushie since this item is located just a stone's throw away in the territory of Mexico.
Pictured: Jaguar Plushie one-month circulation graph.
The Stingray Plushie also saw a large circulation rise due to it being located in the Cayman Islands, which are just 50 mins from Torn, a distance which makes Stingrays the item with the best profit per hour of flight time value of any imported product according to the Torn City Traders graph.
The best value flower to import is the Peony from China, whose value of $70k brings it in at $11,460 per hour per item. Their circulation rose by 50,000 during WTD, but dropped by 10,000 in the two days which followed. These items tend to rise by 10,000 every two days, so it looks like around 20,000 flower sets were exchanged between 28th-30th.
Interestingly, the circulation of Tribulus Omanense - the most expensive flower but the third-most profitable by the hour - rose by 90,000 during WTD. There are many factors involved when choosing which items to import, but these trends offer proof, if it were needed, that the most expensive items do not always provide the highest profit margins.
Pictured: Here is your mid-article reminder that you should buy your mother flowers for no good reason other than the fact she will one day perish.
Overall, most flowers saw circulation rises between 50-200,000 during WTD. Contrary to most people's expectations, this may not result in an immediate price drop, as some flowers fell in price during Elimination. This may be because fewer people were flying during Elim, or it could be that buyers anticipated the effect of WTD ahead of time.
Pictured: Peony one-month price graph.
The same trend has been noted in the price of plushies too. Last year, the price of some plushies and flowers actually rose after WTD, despite the increased availability of stock - something we've already seen with Banana Orchids adding $2k recently. As new sellers continue to operate more intelligently rather than dumping their wares on the market as soon as they are acquired, we are confident that flowers and plushies will not suffer a major drop anytime soon.
DONATOR PACKS
The pawn shop price for Donator Packs was reduced by $450k last month, falling from $23,950,000 down to $23,500,000 - the first pawn alteration since February of this year. As expected, the DP market price fell as a result, with their three-month high of $24.4m followed by a drop below $24m for the first time since October 2017.
"There is currently literally one player deciding the value the of Donator Packs on the market. I will not mention them, but I will say this; if you buy DPs, make sure they are not grenade packs... Even after the red warning added this trick seems to work enough for that player to undercut every other trader and keep DPs as close to pawn price as possible. No judgement on them, but I do judge those who don't read." - iribuya
"I think it [the pawn price drop] was unnecessary and the only reason it was added was due to DP grenade scammers and as long as they're successful with the scams the prices of DPs and pawn will keep dropping." - ORAN
ELIMINATION ITEMS
Xanax peaked at $836k on the 10th of September but immediately started to fall as soon as the warm-up period ended. Xans now sit at $826k, which is their lowest average market price for four years. Unique blames WTD for this fall after 100,000 extra Xans entered circulation during the event.
However, as iribuya mentioned in our previous report, Xanax is one of the most stable items in Torn and is never likely to fall by more than 1-2%. So whereas this latest drop may take Xanax over a significant threshold, its overall status remains relatively healthy.
First Aid Kits and Small First Aid Kits fell massively in price over September, losing $2,230 and $1,225 per item in this month. These prices represent their lowest continuous value since mid-2018. Boxes of Medical Supplies have fallen from $699k to $625k as a result.
"Meds have gone down so much lately, I honestly don't understand it. Could this be the rackets paying too much? Could it be fake-walls not being a thing anymore so there is less fighting? Could it be more new players holding TCHS blocks who bring med-crates into the game? Or was it just always too high and correcting itself? Even elimination, Torns biggest attacking competition didn't do much for FAK and SFAK." - iribuya
Bloods enjoyed a temporary rise that was lower than in previous years' Elimination contests, a trend which was in line with our predictions that their upturn would be muted in 2020. For example, AB- went from $52k to a high of $68k this year, whereas last year it rose from $63k to $80k, and in 2018 it leapt from $48k to $102k.
Pictured: AB- blood three-year price graph with 2018, 2019, 2020 markings.
A- rose from $41k to $53k in 2020, which is roughly the same rise it enjoyed in 2019, but both were less than 2018's gain of $40k to $54k. Meanwhile, A+ saw spikes of $8k and $6k in 2018 and 2019 respectively, but only managed a $5k rise during this year's competition.
The result of these lower-than-usual gains is that most Bloods have now fallen below their pre-Elimination price. Whereas A+ and O+ have remained relatively stable, and B+ and AB+ have only lost a few thousand, A- and AB- have lost $10k per pack, with B+ shedding $16k altogether. The biggest loser by far was O-, which fell from a high of $55k to just $28k at the time of writing.
Morphine confounded our expectations and went up to $36k during Elimination, although it has now fallen back to $29k, having dropped continuously since the 10th of September. Morphine has not been consistently this cheap since 2015.
Feathery Hotel Coupons rose in line with iribuya's predictions and hit a high of $14.2m as Elimination began. However, all of these gains have now been stripped, with FHCs going for an average of $13m at the time of writing. There is often a short, seasonal rise around late October / early November, but after that we usually see FHCs continue to fall and then flatline throughout the spring.
"FHC saw a sharp decline after Elimination was over for most teams, this trend would have probably continued, but caffeine day coming soon is halting this and reverting it. Large cans going up means FHC were temporarily equally good. The price has now been corrected by the market and might steady rise." - iribuya
Several Temporary Weapons lost value this month. Concussion Grenades look highly volatile, having fluctuated between $13 and $30 million throughout September. They are now valued at $12 million. Flash Grenades dropped by $6k from $57k to $51k. Smoke Grenades and Tear Gas are $5k down over September, having enjoyed a big rise in the middle of September. Molotovs lost $36k since the beginning of the month, having also seen a short period of gains before Elimination.
WORLD DIABETES DAY
World Diabetes Day is a 48-hour event which triples the effects of all candy items, ensuring they provide three times as much happiness as usual. This event runs from the 13th to the 15th of November and is often preceded by a small rise in candy prices, mostly among mid to high-end candies.
Pictured, You, next month.
WDD gives candy one last boost before its annual Christmas price slump, with Jawbreakers, Pixie Sticks and Sherbet rising by between $850k and $1 million ahead of the event last year. Many players use WDD to achieve the 99k happy merit, which iribuya explains how to do below.
"Get your faction to put on max Booster Cooldown and Candy Effect on the Voracity Branch. Make sure your booster cooldown is low and use candies to 50k happy, then use an ecstasy pill and you'll get the merit. This will need some planning, but it's possible. You'll need 60-75 candies that give 150 happy or 40-50 of the 250 happy candies. Worth it if you start buying now or during the Halloween candy waterfalls." - iribuya
Anghel notes that many people achieved this merit last year, so he doesn't expect a massive increase in the price of candies - he is selling what he has at their current price based on this prediction. Furthermore, he feels that the refinement in the methods players use to achieve 99,999 happy means prices may not rise for this reason also:
"There were multiple ways to achieve [99,999 happy], the obvious one being using 150 or 250 happy candies. That’s why their prices hit 2/4 mln. Later on it turned out using 100 happy candies @150k each + extasy is enough and prices dropped fast."
Pictured: Bag of Chocolate Truffles one-month price graph.
Bags of Chocolate Truffles provide 100 happy at a price of under $150k, and these candies have seen a rise of a few thousand dollars in recent days. Yet despite the 100 happy candies supposedly being the most efficient way to achieve 99,999 happy when paired with Ecstasy, SinCitySinner has noticed that many people are still buying up 150 and 250 happy candies:
"Tier 1 Candies are the Jawbreaker, Bag of Sherbet, Pixie Sticks and Bag of Humbugs (150 Happy), with Tier 2 Candies being the Gold Easter Egg and Birthday Cupcake (250 Happy). Each item in a Tier is priced similarly in the market, and prices are going up as people stock up. The Tier 1 items were selling around $240k in February of this year, currently selling around $420k. They topped out around $1.5m during last year's event."
Pictured: Jawbreaker one-month price graph.
SinCitySinner added that Gold Easter Eggs are selling for $3m each at the moment, and hit a high of $5m during WDD last year - the Cupcake mostly follows their pricing trend. He predicts that the Tier 1 items will see their supply increased by Halloween, but Tier 2 won't get the same circulation boost.
He also notes that Goodie Bags might be a worthwhile if risky investment since they also enjoyed a rise last year. However, 2020 will play host to an expanded Trick or Treat event, meaning that more candy will be in circulation this year than ever before. We also know that as players level up their Halloween Baskets, better candy becomes more readily available.
Based on the mass of information we've just trawled through, we expect the gains made by all candies ahead of Diabetes Day to be slightly less than usual, with the exceptions being the Gold Easter Egg and Cupcake, which are not distributed over Halloween. We might also see Bags of Chocolate Truffles (and Ecstasy) buck this trend if more players become aware of the most efficient 99k happy method.
" I would not be surprised to see a small increase in the price of Poison Mistletoe too, even if the increase is purely speculative." - SinCitySinner
DOG TAGS
The Dog Tag competition will begin just after our next Market Report is due out, and we expect its effects on certain items will be felt throughout October. Last year, FHCs rose by $170k in anticipation of the Tags tournament but lost much more than this after its completion.
Cans may also rise ahead of Dog Tags, but by how much depends on their performance over the course of CaffeineCon. If Energy Drinks plummet immediately after CC has finished - something we don't expect - then a sharp rise before Dog Tags may be observed.
We feel it is more likely that both FHCs and Energy Drinks will rise slightly in the weeks before CaffeineCon, before taking a small hit, and subsequently rising once more in the week prior to Dog Tags. Both will then fall slowly as we approach the festive season.
There will likely be a rise in items used to protect oneself from attacks during Dog Tags too, such as Business Class Tickets. BCTs rose in anticipation of both World Tourism Day and Elimination back in late July, but have now fallen back down to their pre-summer price of just over $7million a pop.
Pictured: BCT three-month price graph.
In 2019, BCTs rose throughout October and early November, as Dog Tag participants hoovered them up ahead of the tournament's start on the 5th of November. Now might be a good time to stock up if you intend on flying often during Dog Tags. The best time to buy BCTs is between Jan and April, but the second-best time is now.
Small Explosive Devices are also used to protect tag hauls through self-hospitalisation. These have already risen by $400k this month, and iribuya believes they will continue on this trajectory, as does SinCitySinner:
"Those that know how Dog Tags works and make a serious run at the Top 25 likely have been stocking up for a while now, but there will still be players snatching them up during the event as they try to keep their stolen Tags secure toward the end."
SCS added that stealth plays a big role in Dog Tags, with many players choosing to use Tear Gas or Flash Grenades on the first turn of an attack to increase their chance of sneaking away undetected. This is important if you wish to avoid becoming seen as a tag collector and hence turn into a potential tag farming target.
"I expect a small price increase (10-15k) in Tear Gas and Flash Grenades a few days into the Event." - SinCitySinner
NEW CLOTHES
Several players have noticed that a number of new clothing and armor items have been included in the Torn item lists. Further details on these items are expected within a week or two, with this extra competition potentially leading to a downturn in the price of some existing wearables. Anghel partially disagrees with this assessment.
"As the clothes don't provide any advantage in the game their price is based solely on rarity and various collectors. Newly released items shouldn’t affect the prices of the old ones too much. That’s not the case with the armor of course - racing to acquire the best one from each newly released item will be fierce for a few months at least." - Anghel
MINIGUNS
In our August report, we predicted that Miniguns might rise in value due to their re-categorisation as a Machine Gun from a Heavy Artillery piece. Both iribuya and ORAN disagreed that Miniguns would rise in price, but the market graph below shows that they actually did.
Pictured: Miniguns one-month price graph.
However, given the rather short nature of this rise, we suspect this gain may have been something of a self-fulfilling prophecy, given that it was timed precisely with the release of our previous market report. Anghel posits that the Minigun was more valuable under its previous categorisation, which leads us to believe their value may soon fall even further.
"Agree, the minigun was way more important as a Heavy Artillery as the easiest one to use for 1000 finishing hits in that category. M249 PARA LMG is good enough as a Machine Gun." - Anghel
OTHER NOTABLES
Cesium-137 fell from a price of $367 million on August 31st by $65 million down to $302 million today.
Neumune continues to fall, having lost $300k during September.
EDVDs fell from $3.9 million to $3.4 million, in line with _Scofield_'s prediction that their former value of $4 million was artificially inflated.
Gift Cards dropped from $3.3 million to $2.9 million.
Irradiated Blood lost roughly $15k of value this month. This comes in the wake of a $17k rise in August after Patch List #156 announced two changes to their attributes.
Lawyer Business Cards rose in price by $24k per card this month, now sitting at $484k.
Speed arrested a month-long slide from $195k to $140k by finally picking up in late September, gaining $20k to land at a price of $161k.
Casino Passes lost around $8 million. ORAN believes this is due to the poor payouts from High Low, and he feels prices will continue to fall unless this changes.
Beer Kegs lost roughly $1.7 million.
Baseball Bats fell from $411 to $148.
Plastic Swords went from $292 to $714, with much of this value added in the past few days.
MP5ks were worth $70k at the start of September. They're now worth $17k.
Let's find out as we take a look at September's Market Report. And be forewarned, this one is a hefty old unit of an article.
CAFFEINECON
CaffeineCon will provide a 2x boost to the effects of all Energy Drinks from the 14th to the 16th of October. This event was created in 2019 to mark the release of three new low-energy drinks, with thousands of cans of Crocozade, Damp Valley, and Goose Juice given away over the course of a week.
This year, there will be no such giveaway, but the 48-hour booster event will remain in place. We anticipate a small rise in can prices will occur in the run-up to CaffeineCon as players look to take advantage of this event, however, as we'll see later, other forthcoming events may have a greater impact on the value of energy drinks.
"With the rise in can prices in anticipation of the upcoming event CaffeineCon, daily training cost of 30e cans is basically equivalent to that of FHCs so I expect FHCs to recover some value for the next few days after which cans and FHCs both shall start crashing." - _Scofield_
"I see lots of people are looking into buying the 30e ones and I think their prices might increase. The rest may remain stable at their current prices. Not sure if it's because of books or just treating themselves after elim to catch up on the missed training. Can't recall seeing that last year tho." - ORAN
The top-tier cans have had a good few months, with X-Mass and Taurine adding $100k to their value during September alone. The opposite is true of the remaining original cans, though, with the 25 and 20 energy cans falling by roughly $100k over the past month.
The new cans haven't fared much better either. Crocozade is down $70k, Damp Valley $10k, and Goose Juice has flatlined, despite the latter enjoying a $50k rise in the middle of September.
"Small cans are overpriced already that’s why the price didn’t move. I remember few people mass buying them back in May/June (rapid_riser comes to my mind." - Anghel
Pictured: Goose Juice one-month price graph.
Based on our traders' comments, it looks like the top tier cans may be the ones to invest in, despite their existing healthy price. However, everyone expects can prices to crash after CaffeineCon, but iribuya feels the impact of this event may not be immediate.
"After can day I expect a massive decrease in can values in anticipation of Christmas Town. It's possible this is slightly delayed because supply was used up during can day." - iribuya
TRICK OR TREAT RETURNS
A number of unannounced additions to the Trick or Treat event may lead to a change in the way item market prices respond to this seasonal Halloween giveaway.
The basic premise of Trick or Treat is that players must purchase a Halloween basket in order to collect treats, treats which are themselves collected by attacking other players. Your Halloween Basket will level-up based on how many treats you have collected, with each level increasing your treat collection rate and opening up a brand new array of purchasable basket upgrades.
Pictured: Halloween baskets, in case you are having a hard time picturing what they look like due to some sort of brain injury.
Treats can be exchanged during the competition to upgrade your Halloween Basket, or you can exchange them at the end of the event to obtain candy, alcohol and energy drinks. Without giving too much away, I believe that the new upgrades added for this year's Trick or Treat may result in more players plumping for upgrades over consumables, at least to begin with. (Note: Treats and upgrades from 2019 will carry over to 2020)
If most people choose to avoid upgrading, then low-value cans, booze and candies will all suffer a big drop in price. However, 8,000+ people took part in 2019, and if we get the same participation rate this year, and they decide to focus on upgrading their baskets, we may see more high-value items take a price hit instead.
Conversely, certain weapons, armors and wearables may enjoy a small price rise this month thanks to the bonus effects they provide during Trick or Treat. The items which affect your treat count were revealed in the newspaper last year, but the new upgrade system may mean that fewer players make use of them in 2020.
"tl;dr Start Stacking for it, because it sounds like early Christmas." - iribuya
WORLD TOURISM DAY
World Tourism Day took place from the 26th to the 28th of September, with all players seeing their travel item allowance doubled for all returning flights. WTD used to cause the price of points to drop almost immediately, due to the huge increase in plushies and flowers imported into the city due to this event.
In recent years, sellers have become savvier, and are now more likely to hold on to their stocks of plushies and flowers to sell throughout the year to avoid depressing the points market. That being said, there was still a noticeable rise in the number of sets being exchanged over the past week, as these Museum point payout figures demonstrate.
MUSEUM POINTS PAYOUTS
30th: 814,210
29th: 924,630
28th: 1,026,670
27th: 556,020
26th: 584,080
25th: 520,170
24th: 612,110
Point prices have dropped by a couple of hundred dollars recently, but they have been pretty stable since their pawn price was fixed at $45,000 earlier this year. Interestingly, our trading experts appear to be divided on whether this change to a fixed point price was a good thing.
"It's been a breath of fresh air for the point market to be stable. The steady pawn price gave more confidence in traders to have low margin set prices and also made gamblers use pawn more often to sell off their points (causing a good balance between supply and demand). Thanks Ched and Economist." - iribuya
"Fixing the pawn price of points has done nothing other than act as an anchor holding the price of points down. The much-anticipated rise in points prices for elims did not happen due to this very reason. There were times when points rose to around 46k on the market but only for a few minutes before it went down again. I'm not really a fan of that update." - _Scofield_
How much WTD will affect the market as 2020 comes to a conclusion depends on how many plushies and flowers were imported last month, and how quickly their owners decide to sell them over the coming months. While we cannot answer the latter, the former can be discerned by viewing the circulation graphs of plushies and flowers. The following circulation graph for Camel Plushies indicates that 130,000 were brought in to torn over WTD, compared to their typical average of about 10,000 over a two-day period.
Pictured: Camel Plushie one-month circulation graph.
As you can see, there was a noticeable dip just after WTD where the circulation for Camel Plushies dropped by 22,000. This indicates that approximately 32,000 were exchanged at the Museum between 28th-30th if we factor in the typical average rise of 10,000 per day.
Obviously there are different trends for different plushies, with most patterns determined by their value. The upward curve in circulation gets flatter as you drop down to lower value plushies, but this trend is bucked by the Jaguar Plushie since this item is located just a stone's throw away in the territory of Mexico.
Pictured: Jaguar Plushie one-month circulation graph.
The Stingray Plushie also saw a large circulation rise due to it being located in the Cayman Islands, which are just 50 mins from Torn, a distance which makes Stingrays the item with the best profit per hour of flight time value of any imported product according to the Torn City Traders graph.
The best value flower to import is the Peony from China, whose value of $70k brings it in at $11,460 per hour per item. Their circulation rose by 50,000 during WTD, but dropped by 10,000 in the two days which followed. These items tend to rise by 10,000 every two days, so it looks like around 20,000 flower sets were exchanged between 28th-30th.
Interestingly, the circulation of Tribulus Omanense - the most expensive flower but the third-most profitable by the hour - rose by 90,000 during WTD. There are many factors involved when choosing which items to import, but these trends offer proof, if it were needed, that the most expensive items do not always provide the highest profit margins.
Pictured: Here is your mid-article reminder that you should buy your mother flowers for no good reason other than the fact she will one day perish.
Overall, most flowers saw circulation rises between 50-200,000 during WTD. Contrary to most people's expectations, this may not result in an immediate price drop, as some flowers fell in price during Elimination. This may be because fewer people were flying during Elim, or it could be that buyers anticipated the effect of WTD ahead of time.
Pictured: Peony one-month price graph.
The same trend has been noted in the price of plushies too. Last year, the price of some plushies and flowers actually rose after WTD, despite the increased availability of stock - something we've already seen with Banana Orchids adding $2k recently. As new sellers continue to operate more intelligently rather than dumping their wares on the market as soon as they are acquired, we are confident that flowers and plushies will not suffer a major drop anytime soon.
DONATOR PACKS
The pawn shop price for Donator Packs was reduced by $450k last month, falling from $23,950,000 down to $23,500,000 - the first pawn alteration since February of this year. As expected, the DP market price fell as a result, with their three-month high of $24.4m followed by a drop below $24m for the first time since October 2017.
"There is currently literally one player deciding the value the of Donator Packs on the market. I will not mention them, but I will say this; if you buy DPs, make sure they are not grenade packs... Even after the red warning added this trick seems to work enough for that player to undercut every other trader and keep DPs as close to pawn price as possible. No judgement on them, but I do judge those who don't read." - iribuya
"I think it [the pawn price drop] was unnecessary and the only reason it was added was due to DP grenade scammers and as long as they're successful with the scams the prices of DPs and pawn will keep dropping." - ORAN
ELIMINATION ITEMS
Xanax peaked at $836k on the 10th of September but immediately started to fall as soon as the warm-up period ended. Xans now sit at $826k, which is their lowest average market price for four years. Unique blames WTD for this fall after 100,000 extra Xans entered circulation during the event.
However, as iribuya mentioned in our previous report, Xanax is one of the most stable items in Torn and is never likely to fall by more than 1-2%. So whereas this latest drop may take Xanax over a significant threshold, its overall status remains relatively healthy.
First Aid Kits and Small First Aid Kits fell massively in price over September, losing $2,230 and $1,225 per item in this month. These prices represent their lowest continuous value since mid-2018. Boxes of Medical Supplies have fallen from $699k to $625k as a result.
"Meds have gone down so much lately, I honestly don't understand it. Could this be the rackets paying too much? Could it be fake-walls not being a thing anymore so there is less fighting? Could it be more new players holding TCHS blocks who bring med-crates into the game? Or was it just always too high and correcting itself? Even elimination, Torns biggest attacking competition didn't do much for FAK and SFAK." - iribuya
Bloods enjoyed a temporary rise that was lower than in previous years' Elimination contests, a trend which was in line with our predictions that their upturn would be muted in 2020. For example, AB- went from $52k to a high of $68k this year, whereas last year it rose from $63k to $80k, and in 2018 it leapt from $48k to $102k.
Pictured: AB- blood three-year price graph with 2018, 2019, 2020 markings.
A- rose from $41k to $53k in 2020, which is roughly the same rise it enjoyed in 2019, but both were less than 2018's gain of $40k to $54k. Meanwhile, A+ saw spikes of $8k and $6k in 2018 and 2019 respectively, but only managed a $5k rise during this year's competition.
The result of these lower-than-usual gains is that most Bloods have now fallen below their pre-Elimination price. Whereas A+ and O+ have remained relatively stable, and B+ and AB+ have only lost a few thousand, A- and AB- have lost $10k per pack, with B+ shedding $16k altogether. The biggest loser by far was O-, which fell from a high of $55k to just $28k at the time of writing.
Morphine confounded our expectations and went up to $36k during Elimination, although it has now fallen back to $29k, having dropped continuously since the 10th of September. Morphine has not been consistently this cheap since 2015.
Feathery Hotel Coupons rose in line with iribuya's predictions and hit a high of $14.2m as Elimination began. However, all of these gains have now been stripped, with FHCs going for an average of $13m at the time of writing. There is often a short, seasonal rise around late October / early November, but after that we usually see FHCs continue to fall and then flatline throughout the spring.
"FHC saw a sharp decline after Elimination was over for most teams, this trend would have probably continued, but caffeine day coming soon is halting this and reverting it. Large cans going up means FHC were temporarily equally good. The price has now been corrected by the market and might steady rise." - iribuya
Several Temporary Weapons lost value this month. Concussion Grenades look highly volatile, having fluctuated between $13 and $30 million throughout September. They are now valued at $12 million. Flash Grenades dropped by $6k from $57k to $51k. Smoke Grenades and Tear Gas are $5k down over September, having enjoyed a big rise in the middle of September. Molotovs lost $36k since the beginning of the month, having also seen a short period of gains before Elimination.
WORLD DIABETES DAY
World Diabetes Day is a 48-hour event which triples the effects of all candy items, ensuring they provide three times as much happiness as usual. This event runs from the 13th to the 15th of November and is often preceded by a small rise in candy prices, mostly among mid to high-end candies.
Pictured, You, next month.
WDD gives candy one last boost before its annual Christmas price slump, with Jawbreakers, Pixie Sticks and Sherbet rising by between $850k and $1 million ahead of the event last year. Many players use WDD to achieve the 99k happy merit, which iribuya explains how to do below.
"Get your faction to put on max Booster Cooldown and Candy Effect on the Voracity Branch. Make sure your booster cooldown is low and use candies to 50k happy, then use an ecstasy pill and you'll get the merit. This will need some planning, but it's possible. You'll need 60-75 candies that give 150 happy or 40-50 of the 250 happy candies. Worth it if you start buying now or during the Halloween candy waterfalls." - iribuya
Anghel notes that many people achieved this merit last year, so he doesn't expect a massive increase in the price of candies - he is selling what he has at their current price based on this prediction. Furthermore, he feels that the refinement in the methods players use to achieve 99,999 happy means prices may not rise for this reason also:
"There were multiple ways to achieve [99,999 happy], the obvious one being using 150 or 250 happy candies. That’s why their prices hit 2/4 mln. Later on it turned out using 100 happy candies @150k each + extasy is enough and prices dropped fast."
Pictured: Bag of Chocolate Truffles one-month price graph.
Bags of Chocolate Truffles provide 100 happy at a price of under $150k, and these candies have seen a rise of a few thousand dollars in recent days. Yet despite the 100 happy candies supposedly being the most efficient way to achieve 99,999 happy when paired with Ecstasy, SinCitySinner has noticed that many people are still buying up 150 and 250 happy candies:
"Tier 1 Candies are the Jawbreaker, Bag of Sherbet, Pixie Sticks and Bag of Humbugs (150 Happy), with Tier 2 Candies being the Gold Easter Egg and Birthday Cupcake (250 Happy). Each item in a Tier is priced similarly in the market, and prices are going up as people stock up. The Tier 1 items were selling around $240k in February of this year, currently selling around $420k. They topped out around $1.5m during last year's event."
Pictured: Jawbreaker one-month price graph.
SinCitySinner added that Gold Easter Eggs are selling for $3m each at the moment, and hit a high of $5m during WDD last year - the Cupcake mostly follows their pricing trend. He predicts that the Tier 1 items will see their supply increased by Halloween, but Tier 2 won't get the same circulation boost.
He also notes that Goodie Bags might be a worthwhile if risky investment since they also enjoyed a rise last year. However, 2020 will play host to an expanded Trick or Treat event, meaning that more candy will be in circulation this year than ever before. We also know that as players level up their Halloween Baskets, better candy becomes more readily available.
Based on the mass of information we've just trawled through, we expect the gains made by all candies ahead of Diabetes Day to be slightly less than usual, with the exceptions being the Gold Easter Egg and Cupcake, which are not distributed over Halloween. We might also see Bags of Chocolate Truffles (and Ecstasy) buck this trend if more players become aware of the most efficient 99k happy method.
" I would not be surprised to see a small increase in the price of Poison Mistletoe too, even if the increase is purely speculative." - SinCitySinner
DOG TAGS
The Dog Tag competition will begin just after our next Market Report is due out, and we expect its effects on certain items will be felt throughout October. Last year, FHCs rose by $170k in anticipation of the Tags tournament but lost much more than this after its completion.
Cans may also rise ahead of Dog Tags, but by how much depends on their performance over the course of CaffeineCon. If Energy Drinks plummet immediately after CC has finished - something we don't expect - then a sharp rise before Dog Tags may be observed.
We feel it is more likely that both FHCs and Energy Drinks will rise slightly in the weeks before CaffeineCon, before taking a small hit, and subsequently rising once more in the week prior to Dog Tags. Both will then fall slowly as we approach the festive season.
There will likely be a rise in items used to protect oneself from attacks during Dog Tags too, such as Business Class Tickets. BCTs rose in anticipation of both World Tourism Day and Elimination back in late July, but have now fallen back down to their pre-summer price of just over $7million a pop.
Pictured: BCT three-month price graph.
In 2019, BCTs rose throughout October and early November, as Dog Tag participants hoovered them up ahead of the tournament's start on the 5th of November. Now might be a good time to stock up if you intend on flying often during Dog Tags. The best time to buy BCTs is between Jan and April, but the second-best time is now.
Small Explosive Devices are also used to protect tag hauls through self-hospitalisation. These have already risen by $400k this month, and iribuya believes they will continue on this trajectory, as does SinCitySinner:
"Those that know how Dog Tags works and make a serious run at the Top 25 likely have been stocking up for a while now, but there will still be players snatching them up during the event as they try to keep their stolen Tags secure toward the end."
SCS added that stealth plays a big role in Dog Tags, with many players choosing to use Tear Gas or Flash Grenades on the first turn of an attack to increase their chance of sneaking away undetected. This is important if you wish to avoid becoming seen as a tag collector and hence turn into a potential tag farming target.
"I expect a small price increase (10-15k) in Tear Gas and Flash Grenades a few days into the Event." - SinCitySinner
NEW CLOTHES
Several players have noticed that a number of new clothing and armor items have been included in the Torn item lists. Further details on these items are expected within a week or two, with this extra competition potentially leading to a downturn in the price of some existing wearables. Anghel partially disagrees with this assessment.
"As the clothes don't provide any advantage in the game their price is based solely on rarity and various collectors. Newly released items shouldn’t affect the prices of the old ones too much. That’s not the case with the armor of course - racing to acquire the best one from each newly released item will be fierce for a few months at least." - Anghel
MINIGUNS
In our August report, we predicted that Miniguns might rise in value due to their re-categorisation as a Machine Gun from a Heavy Artillery piece. Both iribuya and ORAN disagreed that Miniguns would rise in price, but the market graph below shows that they actually did.
Pictured: Miniguns one-month price graph.
However, given the rather short nature of this rise, we suspect this gain may have been something of a self-fulfilling prophecy, given that it was timed precisely with the release of our previous market report. Anghel posits that the Minigun was more valuable under its previous categorisation, which leads us to believe their value may soon fall even further.
"Agree, the minigun was way more important as a Heavy Artillery as the easiest one to use for 1000 finishing hits in that category. M249 PARA LMG is good enough as a Machine Gun." - Anghel
OTHER NOTABLES
Cesium-137 fell from a price of $367 million on August 31st by $65 million down to $302 million today.
Neumune continues to fall, having lost $300k during September.
EDVDs fell from $3.9 million to $3.4 million, in line with _Scofield_'s prediction that their former value of $4 million was artificially inflated.
Gift Cards dropped from $3.3 million to $2.9 million.
Irradiated Blood lost roughly $15k of value this month. This comes in the wake of a $17k rise in August after Patch List #156 announced two changes to their attributes.
Lawyer Business Cards rose in price by $24k per card this month, now sitting at $484k.
Speed arrested a month-long slide from $195k to $140k by finally picking up in late September, gaining $20k to land at a price of $161k.
Casino Passes lost around $8 million. ORAN believes this is due to the poor payouts from High Low, and he feels prices will continue to fall unless this changes.
Beer Kegs lost roughly $1.7 million.
Baseball Bats fell from $411 to $148.
Plastic Swords went from $292 to $714, with much of this value added in the past few days.
MP5ks were worth $70k at the start of September. They're now worth $17k.
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