sugarvalves [1963573] —
Original article
What will Xanax do over Christmas? Are medical item prices set to skyrocket? Which items will be the most affected by Christmas events? And what is the true value of the Cosmetic Caches?
November was an odd month for the market, as in among the predictable trends caused by Dog Tags, World Diabetes Day, and the approach to Christmas, we also had the chaos of Black Friday to contend with. Our logs showed that hundreds of thousands of items were sold at $1 over the course of the 27th, and so you may see an anomaly in many item market graphs related to that period.
There doesn't appear to be any long-term effects on the market price of most items stemming from this event, however, since a large variety of items were sold by many different sellers, and these items have now recovered their pre-Black Friday value. So let's move on and find out how some other events might have affected the market this past month, and also take a look ahead to the events arriving in December.
DOG TAGS
The final attacking competition of the year ended on the 25th of November, and this means that warring and fighting supplies should no longer be in as much demand as they were. Unless, of course, some players are planning ahead for future events.
Xanax went crazy at the end of October and remained high for a short period at the beginning of November. Its price then fell away from $839.6k on the 3rd to as low as $830k by the 21st. However, things have started to pick up at the time of writing, with Xanax rising to just under $836k on the 2nd. Short peaks have been noted over Christmas in years gone by, with some people known to use this period to train more, or to stock up ahead of the new year.
Pictured: Xanax one-month price graph.
"Xanax might get a nice boost in value during CT. Supply already seems to be lower than the demand. I can see their value being $860,000 during CT if fewer players fly long term." - iribuya
"I expect xanax to be more stable during December until CT 2020 starts, that's usually when people stop flying or fly less to do Christmas Town." - ORAN
FAKs are going in the opposite direction, with First Aid Kits now at their lowest consistent price since December 2015. These items were seen rising towards the end of October, but once November began they started dropping, and sat on just $16.8k on December 1st. SFAKs are also historically low, with their current $9,168 value not seen since early 2018.
"All meds that come out of med-crates have been dropping in value hard. No fake wars for respect farming and tchs (the benefit block that pays med-crates) was nice and low for a lot of new players to buy for their stock portfolio. My expectation is that meds might drop slower and slower in value, but will see a HUGE surge once some news of ranked warring comes out." - iribuya
"Even though I do not place bets/gamble in the market, Medical items do seem like a good bet if/when ranked warfare comes out they're likely to shoot in value. Of course, there's the "balancing medical items" risk that Chedburn is working on, I'm thinking maybe it's a revives nerf, then prices of meds will increase." - ORAN
Bloods are down across the board, with B- suffering the least with a loss of $1.6k, and A- and AB- the worst hit, losing $12k and $14k respectively this month. Three attacking competitions in short succession have raised the price of bloods artificially high of late, and only now are they starting to fall back down to normal levels. Just how much blood has been used over recent months can be seen in the extraordinary wave patterns we've noticed in their circulation graphs.
Pictured: A+ Blood six month circulation graph.
WORLD DIABETES DAY
World Diabetes Day took place on the 13th of November, with this event seeing all candy effects tripled for 48-hours. We predicted that the 150 happy candies would be most popular over the course of WDD, but this wasn't the case, as roughly 24,000 Pixie Sticks, 7,000 Jawbreakers, 4,000 Bags of Sherbet, and 700 Bags of Humbugs were consumed.
Humbugs maxed out at $865k as a result of this demand, but are now down to $477k. Jawbreakers hit a high of $828k, but are now worth $324k. Pixie Sticks were valued at $821k on November 9th, but have plummeted to $309k now. And while Bags of Sherbet reached as high as $796k, they are currently valued at only $305k.
Pictured: Pixie Sticks one-month price graph.
The 100 happy candies were the most heavily used items, with 16,000 Bags of Reindeer Droppings and 29,000 Bags of Chocolate Truffles eaten. Both of these candies enjoyed peaks of $280-300k just before WDD, but have now returned to their pre-event values of $150k and $160k. Conversely, each of the 150 happy candies is now down on their pre-event values.
Pictured: Reindeer Droppings one-month price graph.
As for the other candies, roughly 1,500 Eyeballs were eaten, and 30,000 Bags of Tootsie Rolls too. These 75 happy candies were barely affected in value by WDD, and this was also the case with 50 happy Bags of Candy Kisses, despite 27,000 being consumed. Negligible changes in price were also seen in the remaining low tier candies.
The only other candy item to have experienced a notable change this month is the Birthday Cupcake, several thousand of which were given out to citizens via the City Map to celebrate Torn's 16th anniversary on the 15th of November. Interestingly, their price was already falling before they were handed out but continued to fall afterwards, dropping from $2.5m to $1.1m.
"Candies were expected to go up, and it happened. Every year I see new traders fall for the 'event-trap'; they buy up price-boosted supplies in the week before the event. They are then met with falling prices as soon as the event starts. If you plan on making a profit on events, plan these in advance and don't put half your networth in it." - iribuya
STRIPPOGRAMS
The value of Strippogram Vouchers fell slightly during November as several thousand were given out to celebrate Torn's aforementioned 16th anniversary. Roughly $1 million was shaved off their price due to this event, but could further drops be on the way due to increased circulation?
The answer is yes. A forum post by Ceb in Suggestions requested that Strippogram Vouchers be added to Strip Clubs as a new 5* perk. As yours truly is currently overseeing changes to the company system, Chedburn brought this suggestion to my attention. The addition of Strippogram Vouchers to Strip Clubs was already under consideration, however, since Strip Clubs are low in the list of priorities right now, do not expect this change to be made soon.
"Interesting item, the 0 cooldown on the extra happy makes this worth its value if you're a VERY rich happy jumper. They are also used as a joke in faction chats sometimes. Before new ones were given away in the 16 year anniversary they were sold for 18-20m. If we follow the speed at which changes come, we'll probably not see any company updates for another year. My prediction is they will go back to 18-20m" - iribuya
DONATOR PACKS
The Pawn price for Donator Packs dropped to $23,100,000 from $23,500,000 during Black Friday, with this marking only the second drop since February this year. DPs are thought to be slightly overpriced on the market at present, and while their value has fallen by $200k since the pawn price was altered, we believe they may be subjected to another fall sometime over the next couple of months.
Pictured: Donator Pack six-month price graph.
"Pawn got adjusted again. I still don't know why, because there is only one reason the market value is so close to pawn. I'll get some drama from one specific faction for saying this; probably good for Chedburn's retirement plan if he changes the image on Grenade Packs OR Donator Packs to not look similar. On another note, players should learn to read warnings or buy glasses if they have a hard time finding the difference." - iribuya
"Personally this time around I find the pawn drop really confusing, I thought it was following the market while setting a price floor, guess I was wrong." - ORAN
Pictured: Half of all item-gone-missing bug report writers.
The price of points has also risen lately, despite there being no rise in their pawn shop price, which remains at $45k per point. Points rose to a high of $46,137 on November 5th, and while a few Black Friday sellers dropped their value below $45k for the first time in months, they immediately recovered and were sitting pretty at $45,667 on December 1st.
JIMMY WEAKENED
The life of the NPC Jimmy has been reduced from 2.5 million to 1 million in an attempt to increase the number of attacks upon him. If this works, the value of his Bread Knife, Ripped Jeans, and Concussion Grenades will certainly fall. Bread Knives are rare and in high demand, and the only one for sale is currently priced at $6.6 billion - I believe it was acquired by Euphoria on Black Friday.
"I guess the attacking events and bad drops really devalued attacking NPCs for loot, this might increase the value of weapon drops tho." - ORAN
Ripped Jeans are also quite pricey, and will cost you $225 million at present. Concussion Grenades are valued at $13 million currently and are the cheapest rare lootable you can get from Jimmy. All three of these items will fall in price massively over the coming year, as more players gain access to Jimmy's loot.
"Jimmy getting reduced health is very welcome. In general, 25e is valued around $1m for the older player base, but new players might value this MUCH lower. In the future, I hope to see some more NPCs focused towards newer players. These NPCs could drop just simple items that are more geared towards lower value / energy spend." - iribuya
CHRISTMAS TOWN
Christmas Town opens at noon on the 16th of December, and with it comes the inevitable torrent of cans, candies, booze, and the rest! With Torn's population having grown yet again this year, we are expecting a huge number of Christmas Town items to enter circulation both during and after the event.
Among the variety of items you can expect to see in CT are Lottery Vouchers, Boxes of Medical Supplies, Boxes of Grenades, Drug Packs, Lawyer Business Cards, Erotic DVDs, Books of Carols, and Business Class Tickets. Prices for these don't necessarily drop due to CT, as some of them aren't given away in high enough amounts to make an impact. Last year, Books of Carols were halved in value due to CT, and BCTs also lost a few million too. The rest failed to change much.
This is in stark contrast to booze, candy, and cans, which are given out in copious quantities and will definitely see price reductions as a result. Every type of Energy Drink will be given away during CT, and this will see their prices plummet in the immediate aftermath. Last year we saw cans bounce back from Christmas relatively quickly, only to enter a two-month slump shortly afterwards. A Christmas Town slump is expected every year, but whether 2021 will play host to a second fall in January is not yet known.
Pictured: X-MASS three-year price graph.
Candies will also be given out via CT, and while we've already covered their recent trends, it is worth noting that these items typically begin their annual fall roughly around now. The severity and pattern of their fall are dependent on their existing circulation numbers.
Last year, 27,000 Jawbreakers were created by Christmas Town, raising circulation from 30,000 to 57,000. This resulted in a price drop from $382k to $311k from the 15th to the 21st of December. Compare that with Pixie Sticks, which went from 56,000 to 143,000 circulation thanks to an additional 87,000 being produced. Their price also fell, but in a less dramatic fashion, dropping from $352k to $312k over the same period.
Both of these items produce 150 happiness, but the smaller initial circulation of Jawbreakers resulted in them being more affected by Christmas Town, despite their circulation increase being lower than that of Pixie Sticks, both actually and proportionally.
Alcohol will also drop due to Christmas Town, but exactly which items is not as obvious as you think. Kandy Kane, Minty Mayhem, Christmas Cocktail, and Mistletoe Madness will all rise in circulation by well over 150,000 units each. And subsequently, they will each suffer a price drop, with Christmas booze expected to fall by between $17 and $100k, depending on how much nerve it provides.
However, do not be fooled into thinking that Christmas Spirit will behave in precisely the same fashion. Christmas Spirit is given out at Christmas, but not via Christmas Town, as it is solely available via Duke's Christmas Giveaways which begin on the 14th. This means that both the timing and severity of any Christmas Spirit price drop will be different to that experienced by the other Christmas booze.
"Christmas Town is always a good time for players to buy some supplies for the rest of the year. Last year we saw more players holding their CT loot until some months passed. This caused the markets to stay low for a longer period. Some say it was because a popular map gave this as basic advice, but I'm not sure about that. Prices of Cans / Alcohol / /Candy will drop, buy up and enjoy your free stuff." - iribuya
DUKE'S GIVEAWAY
Duke's Giveaway will return this year, with numerous new and old items set to be handed out for free between the 14th and 25th of December.
Christmas Spirit is limited to batches of 10,000 per year, and while it is currently valued at $1.6 million, we expect its value to fall in line with the other 5 nerve booze once it is handed out again this year. Both Moonshine and Green Stout are valued closer to $1 million, so expect Christmas Spirit to drop to roughly the same once its circulation is increased later this month.
Poison Mistletoe is also a Christmas staple, with 2,500 given out last year, and 1,000 the year before. Will even more be provided in 2020? Time will tell. Their current price of $25 million a pop may be under threat if supplies are increased this time around, as there are only 2,441 in circulation at the time of writing. Except Chillyspunc to complain via the forums as per f**king usual.
Christmas Crackers were a new addition in 2019, and are expected to return this year too. These items - not to be confused with the rare Christmas Cracker '04 - can be used with any player of your choosing, with one of you receiving a prize, a hat, and a joke, and the other player getting a 5% happiness reduction.
Crackers contain various small items such as candies, gift cards, drug packs, and gold watches. Players also receive one of four coloured paper crowns, each of which is valued at around $1.9 million. Crackers can be found in the City on Christmas Day, and 10,000 were also given out by Duke last year.
Interestingly, only a few thousand of these items were used after around 14,000 entered circulation. They are valued at $2.8 million currently and can be expected to fall further if more are given out this month. Perhaps more crackers will be pulled this time around?
Humbugs were also given out last year for the first time, and are expected to return this Christmas too. These 150 happy candies are priced at $498k, compared to $300-324k for the other candies in that bracket. We expect that an additional dump of Humbugs will help drop these candies closer to $380k or thereabouts.
The last item we know for sure will be given out at Christmas is a mask of some sort. Christmas Masks are traditional and usually reference celebrities or events which have defined 2020. Each mask is limited to a run of 250 each, and are usually not announced until the day they are released - or when some sneaky bastard checks the API. Yes _Scofield_, we mean you.
There are usually a selection of other existing items given out too, such as Goodie Bags, Donator Packs, and Kegs of Beer, but never enough to reduce their prices. Expect some hints as to what is being given out in the giveaway article scheduled for later this month.
COSMETIC CACHES
One month after their release we now have an idea of which of the Cosmetic Caches are the most valuable. Naughty Caches are going for $90 million a pop, with the next most valuable cache being the Gentleman, valued at $63 million. The Denim Cache is the least valuable at a paltry $20 million as of December 2nd.
What is interesting is how these prices compare to the value of the individual items contained within. The most expensive clothing item, the Onesie, is worth $5 billion currently. The Wannabe Cache which provides it is worth $42 million, making it the fourth most expensive cache. The Pipe is the second most expensive item at $1.5 billion, but the Elderly Cache is the second cheapest at $34 million.
It is my opinion that these valuations are still working themselves out, and we will only know the true price of these clothes and their caches once more enter circulation.
"As a trader, I get many requests if I buy these caches or individual clothes. Up until now I've declined most of them since they expect their 'only 12 in circulation' item to be worth a billion+. I don't have time to explain that every month more and more will enter the game and their value will be 10-50m max in a year's time. Only the really dirty and naughty items might stay high in value since demand is higher. Their value will drop, that's a guarantee, but how far and how quickly, that's up to the playerbase." - iribuya
"I decline all cache trades because they're extremely overvalued at this point, I might get into trading them in the future but they don't seem to have any uses other than pure cosmetic so I doubt it." - ORAN
ASSORTED OTHERS
Neumune has had a few peaks over the year, but for the most part, this anti-radiation drug has been falling gradually over 2020. That trend looks like it might be reversing, as since a low of $2 million was noted on the 13th of November, Neumunes have added nearly $300k to their value. Is nuclear war coming to Torn City?
Cesium-137 rose from $320 million to $555 million this month, before dropping briefly due to Black Friday and levelling off again at $450 million. This represents the most interesting activity Cesium has had in months. Something is in the works, mark my faintly glowing words.
Feathery Hotel Coupons were predicted to drop this month and over Christmas. They enjoyed a strange boost just before Dog Tags started, but have now fallen back into line and sit at $13.5 million - half a mil higher than they were at the same time last year.
The Pennywise Mask looks to be popular, as they are currently on sale via bazaars for between $425-450 million - although one listed on the item market is priced at $900 million. Masks tend to increase in value as more people buy them with the intention of keeping them. This trend can be seen in the fact that the Donald Trump 16' mask is going for $5 billion, with Gronch, Elon Musk, Michael Myers, and Jigsaw masks all valued between $500 million and $1.25 billion.
NEWS TICKER
One final thing to note is the introduction of the News Ticker, which provides, among other things, news one which items have fallen or risen significantly in value lately. We believe this data will help create extra competition in trading, especially if the data it provides is expanded in future. Tools such as Yata already do this to an extent, but their data is often slightly inaccurate. If you're looking to find the most accurate item data, it may be that the News Ticker is the place to be.
There doesn't appear to be any long-term effects on the market price of most items stemming from this event, however, since a large variety of items were sold by many different sellers, and these items have now recovered their pre-Black Friday value. So let's move on and find out how some other events might have affected the market this past month, and also take a look ahead to the events arriving in December.
DOG TAGS
The final attacking competition of the year ended on the 25th of November, and this means that warring and fighting supplies should no longer be in as much demand as they were. Unless, of course, some players are planning ahead for future events.
Xanax went crazy at the end of October and remained high for a short period at the beginning of November. Its price then fell away from $839.6k on the 3rd to as low as $830k by the 21st. However, things have started to pick up at the time of writing, with Xanax rising to just under $836k on the 2nd. Short peaks have been noted over Christmas in years gone by, with some people known to use this period to train more, or to stock up ahead of the new year.
Pictured: Xanax one-month price graph.
"Xanax might get a nice boost in value during CT. Supply already seems to be lower than the demand. I can see their value being $860,000 during CT if fewer players fly long term." - iribuya
"I expect xanax to be more stable during December until CT 2020 starts, that's usually when people stop flying or fly less to do Christmas Town." - ORAN
FAKs are going in the opposite direction, with First Aid Kits now at their lowest consistent price since December 2015. These items were seen rising towards the end of October, but once November began they started dropping, and sat on just $16.8k on December 1st. SFAKs are also historically low, with their current $9,168 value not seen since early 2018.
"All meds that come out of med-crates have been dropping in value hard. No fake wars for respect farming and tchs (the benefit block that pays med-crates) was nice and low for a lot of new players to buy for their stock portfolio. My expectation is that meds might drop slower and slower in value, but will see a HUGE surge once some news of ranked warring comes out." - iribuya
"Even though I do not place bets/gamble in the market, Medical items do seem like a good bet if/when ranked warfare comes out they're likely to shoot in value. Of course, there's the "balancing medical items" risk that Chedburn is working on, I'm thinking maybe it's a revives nerf, then prices of meds will increase." - ORAN
Bloods are down across the board, with B- suffering the least with a loss of $1.6k, and A- and AB- the worst hit, losing $12k and $14k respectively this month. Three attacking competitions in short succession have raised the price of bloods artificially high of late, and only now are they starting to fall back down to normal levels. Just how much blood has been used over recent months can be seen in the extraordinary wave patterns we've noticed in their circulation graphs.
Pictured: A+ Blood six month circulation graph.
WORLD DIABETES DAY
World Diabetes Day took place on the 13th of November, with this event seeing all candy effects tripled for 48-hours. We predicted that the 150 happy candies would be most popular over the course of WDD, but this wasn't the case, as roughly 24,000 Pixie Sticks, 7,000 Jawbreakers, 4,000 Bags of Sherbet, and 700 Bags of Humbugs were consumed.
Humbugs maxed out at $865k as a result of this demand, but are now down to $477k. Jawbreakers hit a high of $828k, but are now worth $324k. Pixie Sticks were valued at $821k on November 9th, but have plummeted to $309k now. And while Bags of Sherbet reached as high as $796k, they are currently valued at only $305k.
Pictured: Pixie Sticks one-month price graph.
The 100 happy candies were the most heavily used items, with 16,000 Bags of Reindeer Droppings and 29,000 Bags of Chocolate Truffles eaten. Both of these candies enjoyed peaks of $280-300k just before WDD, but have now returned to their pre-event values of $150k and $160k. Conversely, each of the 150 happy candies is now down on their pre-event values.
Pictured: Reindeer Droppings one-month price graph.
As for the other candies, roughly 1,500 Eyeballs were eaten, and 30,000 Bags of Tootsie Rolls too. These 75 happy candies were barely affected in value by WDD, and this was also the case with 50 happy Bags of Candy Kisses, despite 27,000 being consumed. Negligible changes in price were also seen in the remaining low tier candies.
The only other candy item to have experienced a notable change this month is the Birthday Cupcake, several thousand of which were given out to citizens via the City Map to celebrate Torn's 16th anniversary on the 15th of November. Interestingly, their price was already falling before they were handed out but continued to fall afterwards, dropping from $2.5m to $1.1m.
"Candies were expected to go up, and it happened. Every year I see new traders fall for the 'event-trap'; they buy up price-boosted supplies in the week before the event. They are then met with falling prices as soon as the event starts. If you plan on making a profit on events, plan these in advance and don't put half your networth in it." - iribuya
STRIPPOGRAMS
The value of Strippogram Vouchers fell slightly during November as several thousand were given out to celebrate Torn's aforementioned 16th anniversary. Roughly $1 million was shaved off their price due to this event, but could further drops be on the way due to increased circulation?
The answer is yes. A forum post by Ceb in Suggestions requested that Strippogram Vouchers be added to Strip Clubs as a new 5* perk. As yours truly is currently overseeing changes to the company system, Chedburn brought this suggestion to my attention. The addition of Strippogram Vouchers to Strip Clubs was already under consideration, however, since Strip Clubs are low in the list of priorities right now, do not expect this change to be made soon.
"Interesting item, the 0 cooldown on the extra happy makes this worth its value if you're a VERY rich happy jumper. They are also used as a joke in faction chats sometimes. Before new ones were given away in the 16 year anniversary they were sold for 18-20m. If we follow the speed at which changes come, we'll probably not see any company updates for another year. My prediction is they will go back to 18-20m" - iribuya
DONATOR PACKS
The Pawn price for Donator Packs dropped to $23,100,000 from $23,500,000 during Black Friday, with this marking only the second drop since February this year. DPs are thought to be slightly overpriced on the market at present, and while their value has fallen by $200k since the pawn price was altered, we believe they may be subjected to another fall sometime over the next couple of months.
Pictured: Donator Pack six-month price graph.
"Pawn got adjusted again. I still don't know why, because there is only one reason the market value is so close to pawn. I'll get some drama from one specific faction for saying this; probably good for Chedburn's retirement plan if he changes the image on Grenade Packs OR Donator Packs to not look similar. On another note, players should learn to read warnings or buy glasses if they have a hard time finding the difference." - iribuya
"Personally this time around I find the pawn drop really confusing, I thought it was following the market while setting a price floor, guess I was wrong." - ORAN
Pictured: Half of all item-gone-missing bug report writers.
The price of points has also risen lately, despite there being no rise in their pawn shop price, which remains at $45k per point. Points rose to a high of $46,137 on November 5th, and while a few Black Friday sellers dropped their value below $45k for the first time in months, they immediately recovered and were sitting pretty at $45,667 on December 1st.
JIMMY WEAKENED
The life of the NPC Jimmy has been reduced from 2.5 million to 1 million in an attempt to increase the number of attacks upon him. If this works, the value of his Bread Knife, Ripped Jeans, and Concussion Grenades will certainly fall. Bread Knives are rare and in high demand, and the only one for sale is currently priced at $6.6 billion - I believe it was acquired by Euphoria on Black Friday.
"I guess the attacking events and bad drops really devalued attacking NPCs for loot, this might increase the value of weapon drops tho." - ORAN
Ripped Jeans are also quite pricey, and will cost you $225 million at present. Concussion Grenades are valued at $13 million currently and are the cheapest rare lootable you can get from Jimmy. All three of these items will fall in price massively over the coming year, as more players gain access to Jimmy's loot.
"Jimmy getting reduced health is very welcome. In general, 25e is valued around $1m for the older player base, but new players might value this MUCH lower. In the future, I hope to see some more NPCs focused towards newer players. These NPCs could drop just simple items that are more geared towards lower value / energy spend." - iribuya
CHRISTMAS TOWN
Christmas Town opens at noon on the 16th of December, and with it comes the inevitable torrent of cans, candies, booze, and the rest! With Torn's population having grown yet again this year, we are expecting a huge number of Christmas Town items to enter circulation both during and after the event.
Among the variety of items you can expect to see in CT are Lottery Vouchers, Boxes of Medical Supplies, Boxes of Grenades, Drug Packs, Lawyer Business Cards, Erotic DVDs, Books of Carols, and Business Class Tickets. Prices for these don't necessarily drop due to CT, as some of them aren't given away in high enough amounts to make an impact. Last year, Books of Carols were halved in value due to CT, and BCTs also lost a few million too. The rest failed to change much.
This is in stark contrast to booze, candy, and cans, which are given out in copious quantities and will definitely see price reductions as a result. Every type of Energy Drink will be given away during CT, and this will see their prices plummet in the immediate aftermath. Last year we saw cans bounce back from Christmas relatively quickly, only to enter a two-month slump shortly afterwards. A Christmas Town slump is expected every year, but whether 2021 will play host to a second fall in January is not yet known.
Pictured: X-MASS three-year price graph.
Candies will also be given out via CT, and while we've already covered their recent trends, it is worth noting that these items typically begin their annual fall roughly around now. The severity and pattern of their fall are dependent on their existing circulation numbers.
Last year, 27,000 Jawbreakers were created by Christmas Town, raising circulation from 30,000 to 57,000. This resulted in a price drop from $382k to $311k from the 15th to the 21st of December. Compare that with Pixie Sticks, which went from 56,000 to 143,000 circulation thanks to an additional 87,000 being produced. Their price also fell, but in a less dramatic fashion, dropping from $352k to $312k over the same period.
Both of these items produce 150 happiness, but the smaller initial circulation of Jawbreakers resulted in them being more affected by Christmas Town, despite their circulation increase being lower than that of Pixie Sticks, both actually and proportionally.
Alcohol will also drop due to Christmas Town, but exactly which items is not as obvious as you think. Kandy Kane, Minty Mayhem, Christmas Cocktail, and Mistletoe Madness will all rise in circulation by well over 150,000 units each. And subsequently, they will each suffer a price drop, with Christmas booze expected to fall by between $17 and $100k, depending on how much nerve it provides.
However, do not be fooled into thinking that Christmas Spirit will behave in precisely the same fashion. Christmas Spirit is given out at Christmas, but not via Christmas Town, as it is solely available via Duke's Christmas Giveaways which begin on the 14th. This means that both the timing and severity of any Christmas Spirit price drop will be different to that experienced by the other Christmas booze.
"Christmas Town is always a good time for players to buy some supplies for the rest of the year. Last year we saw more players holding their CT loot until some months passed. This caused the markets to stay low for a longer period. Some say it was because a popular map gave this as basic advice, but I'm not sure about that. Prices of Cans / Alcohol / /Candy will drop, buy up and enjoy your free stuff." - iribuya
DUKE'S GIVEAWAY
Duke's Giveaway will return this year, with numerous new and old items set to be handed out for free between the 14th and 25th of December.
Christmas Spirit is limited to batches of 10,000 per year, and while it is currently valued at $1.6 million, we expect its value to fall in line with the other 5 nerve booze once it is handed out again this year. Both Moonshine and Green Stout are valued closer to $1 million, so expect Christmas Spirit to drop to roughly the same once its circulation is increased later this month.
Poison Mistletoe is also a Christmas staple, with 2,500 given out last year, and 1,000 the year before. Will even more be provided in 2020? Time will tell. Their current price of $25 million a pop may be under threat if supplies are increased this time around, as there are only 2,441 in circulation at the time of writing. Except Chillyspunc to complain via the forums as per f**king usual.
Christmas Crackers were a new addition in 2019, and are expected to return this year too. These items - not to be confused with the rare Christmas Cracker '04 - can be used with any player of your choosing, with one of you receiving a prize, a hat, and a joke, and the other player getting a 5% happiness reduction.
Crackers contain various small items such as candies, gift cards, drug packs, and gold watches. Players also receive one of four coloured paper crowns, each of which is valued at around $1.9 million. Crackers can be found in the City on Christmas Day, and 10,000 were also given out by Duke last year.
Interestingly, only a few thousand of these items were used after around 14,000 entered circulation. They are valued at $2.8 million currently and can be expected to fall further if more are given out this month. Perhaps more crackers will be pulled this time around?
Humbugs were also given out last year for the first time, and are expected to return this Christmas too. These 150 happy candies are priced at $498k, compared to $300-324k for the other candies in that bracket. We expect that an additional dump of Humbugs will help drop these candies closer to $380k or thereabouts.
The last item we know for sure will be given out at Christmas is a mask of some sort. Christmas Masks are traditional and usually reference celebrities or events which have defined 2020. Each mask is limited to a run of 250 each, and are usually not announced until the day they are released - or when some sneaky bastard checks the API. Yes _Scofield_, we mean you.
There are usually a selection of other existing items given out too, such as Goodie Bags, Donator Packs, and Kegs of Beer, but never enough to reduce their prices. Expect some hints as to what is being given out in the giveaway article scheduled for later this month.
COSMETIC CACHES
One month after their release we now have an idea of which of the Cosmetic Caches are the most valuable. Naughty Caches are going for $90 million a pop, with the next most valuable cache being the Gentleman, valued at $63 million. The Denim Cache is the least valuable at a paltry $20 million as of December 2nd.
What is interesting is how these prices compare to the value of the individual items contained within. The most expensive clothing item, the Onesie, is worth $5 billion currently. The Wannabe Cache which provides it is worth $42 million, making it the fourth most expensive cache. The Pipe is the second most expensive item at $1.5 billion, but the Elderly Cache is the second cheapest at $34 million.
It is my opinion that these valuations are still working themselves out, and we will only know the true price of these clothes and their caches once more enter circulation.
"As a trader, I get many requests if I buy these caches or individual clothes. Up until now I've declined most of them since they expect their 'only 12 in circulation' item to be worth a billion+. I don't have time to explain that every month more and more will enter the game and their value will be 10-50m max in a year's time. Only the really dirty and naughty items might stay high in value since demand is higher. Their value will drop, that's a guarantee, but how far and how quickly, that's up to the playerbase." - iribuya
"I decline all cache trades because they're extremely overvalued at this point, I might get into trading them in the future but they don't seem to have any uses other than pure cosmetic so I doubt it." - ORAN
ASSORTED OTHERS
Neumune has had a few peaks over the year, but for the most part, this anti-radiation drug has been falling gradually over 2020. That trend looks like it might be reversing, as since a low of $2 million was noted on the 13th of November, Neumunes have added nearly $300k to their value. Is nuclear war coming to Torn City?
Cesium-137 rose from $320 million to $555 million this month, before dropping briefly due to Black Friday and levelling off again at $450 million. This represents the most interesting activity Cesium has had in months. Something is in the works, mark my faintly glowing words.
Feathery Hotel Coupons were predicted to drop this month and over Christmas. They enjoyed a strange boost just before Dog Tags started, but have now fallen back into line and sit at $13.5 million - half a mil higher than they were at the same time last year.
The Pennywise Mask looks to be popular, as they are currently on sale via bazaars for between $425-450 million - although one listed on the item market is priced at $900 million. Masks tend to increase in value as more people buy them with the intention of keeping them. This trend can be seen in the fact that the Donald Trump 16' mask is going for $5 billion, with Gronch, Elon Musk, Michael Myers, and Jigsaw masks all valued between $500 million and $1.25 billion.
NEWS TICKER
One final thing to note is the introduction of the News Ticker, which provides, among other things, news one which items have fallen or risen significantly in value lately. We believe this data will help create extra competition in trading, especially if the data it provides is expanded in future. Tools such as Yata already do this to an extent, but their data is often slightly inaccurate. If you're looking to find the most accurate item data, it may be that the News Ticker is the place to be.
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