Skip to main content

Market Report July

Madylin [2688829] —
What is happening with FHCs? How did MUN affect the item market? And why did Casino Passes Spike? Find out all this and more in this month's market report!
This month's Market Report was put together by Madylin, a new player who is familiar with the item market having recently restarted in Torn earlier this year. It's been a big month for the markets what with the MUN stock having an impact on cans, various attacking events causing a number of items to rise, and the unexpected popularity of World Tiger Day. Let's see what's happened and why in July's Market Report.


ENERGY DRINKS

Can prices fell by roughly 3% due to mass panic from the Munster Beverages Corp Stock announcement, but they quickly stabilized, with some able to maintain a steady price, and others continuing on their upwards trajectory.


Pictured: X-MASS three-month price graph.

Cans typically rise throughout the summer months as we approach the year's condensed calendar of attacking events. The release of MUN stock may have interrupted this briefly, but it's no surprise that most energy drinks have continued on their course. The rescheduling of Dog Tags from November to May might have lowered the demand for cans slightly, but the popularity of Elimination and Halloween is more than enough to compensate.

Cans were also affected by the double exp attacking event, but not as much as you’d expect, especially when you see how much FHCs increased by. Premium Cans only went up by ~$130k, Mid Tier Cans went up by only ~$100K, and there was barely any difference with the Low Tier cans, except for Crocazade which went up by ~$25k at the start of the event.

We also didn't notice much of a change in the circulation graphs, indicating that not that many energy drinks were used for World Pop Day. Originally, I predicted that MUN would be released a month before Caffeine-Con, but the fact that it was released in the week before Double EXP day meant we saw a perfect balance between supply and demand.


Pictured: X-MASS one-month circulation graph.

The circulation and price graphs change around World Tiger Day, with circ dropping and prices increasing as players sought to use up energy chasing the 5x hunting experience bonus and the rare animal payouts. Depending on the cans you use and the number of rare animals you were able to bag, the $850k - $2.4m payouts made this event worthwhile for many.

We also have the newspaper to thank for the recent price increase, as anyone reading Aaassh's tips for new Elimination players may have followed his advice to purchase cans over FHCs.



Overall, the events of the past month have seen top-tier cans gain nearly $200k, with 25 energy cans adding $120k, and 20 energy cans gaining $50k. Conversely, Crocozade has fallen by a few thousand, Damp Valley has gained just $4,000, and Goose Juice has lost $18,000 per can. These three new cans aren't included in the Six Packs of Energy Drinks paid out by Munster, however, with this particular item gaining $300k over the past month - at one point they gained $650k in a day, rising to a six-month high on 31st of July of $15.4m.


Pictured: Six Pack of Energy Drink six-month price graph.


FHC FRENZY


It appears that the general public wasn’t well prepared for World Population Day this year, as when this double exp began we saw the prices for war supplies shoot up immediately. The most notable demand was for FHCs, whose price went up from their usual $12.9m - $13.1m to $13.9m in the first few hours, slowly dropping to $13.3m - $13.5m later on.

There are a few people out there still selling these for cheap - I myself managed to get one for $12.8m - but FHCs have managed to retain most of their inflated value. This leads me to believe that the cheap FHC sellers didn’t check the market before listing, or they incorrectly listed them for their old prices


Pictured: FHC one-month price graph.

If you look back a little further into the FHC price graph, you can see that the rise in prices isn't the true anomaly, but the dip itself. FHC prices fell dramatically in early April with the release of Stocks 3.0, despite this resulting in a decrease in circulation - something that should have caused prices to grow.

At the time, _SCOfield_ suggested that Stocks 3.0 caused players to panic sell their FHCs, but both he and Madmiketyson were convinced the price would return to its usual level before Elimination. Their predictions have proven true, and we feel that another drop in circulation seen in early July may be partially the cause.


Pictured: FHC three-month circulation graph.

There is also the possibility that market manipulation is at play here, as _SCOfield_ suggested back in May. I don't believe this is the case, however, as I saw no more than 30 FHCs listed by any one person, and they were mostly traders who likely purchased them on the same day. I have found no evidence of a fully stocked whale dumping them onto the market.

Another factor involved in the FHC price is faction activity. Last month there was a farm war by IBB and DA, two of the top 5 respect ranking factions. I noticed their chains were very slow so it's likely they didn’t use any boosters - although I cannot be 100% sure. A few hours later when I checked I noticed both of their chains broke.

If they were competitively warring then the 2 factions alone might have been able to inflate the market way over $14m since the supply also lacked around that price range according to YATA. But these two weren't fighting competitively, this may have allowed the majority of Torn to benefit from relatively cheap chaining supplies.





DONATOR PACKS

The pawn shop price for Donator Packs was reduced from $23.1m to $22.6m on August 3rd, a change which inevitably resulted in their item market price falling in tandem. This is the first time the pawn price has been changed since late November 2020, and the result is that DPs are priced at $23.05m, their lowest point since 2015.


Pictured: Donator Pack one-month price rise.

Donator Packs could easily fall below $23m in the coming days, especially as their circulation has increased this month. The number of players purchasing Donator Packs appears to have risen with the addition of the Donator House to the Google Play app. This feature was added on the 9th of July, and it seems that players bought up DPs in their droves soon after, with over 3,000 added to their total.


Pictured: Donator Pack one-month circulation graph.

It will be interesting to see how DPs are further affected in the coming months. Pawn price changes seem to be rare these days, whereas in previous years they were made every few months. If the pawn stays steady at $22.6m then we expect DP market prices to remain around $23m or just below. What should be noted is that traders tend to fix their prices to $50k or $100k above pawn, but many haven't noticed the recent pawn shop drop yet, so do what I did and take advantage while you can!




BUSINESS CLASS TICKETS

Despite some players' initial fears of the Lingerie store buff (free business class travel) the price of BCTs has mostly increased over the last 2 months. BCTs began July sitting pretty at $6.7m, slowly uptrending before having a tiny crash on 12th July, from which they recovered to remain steady. Then, on July 23rd, one week before International Tiger Day, BCTs flew to a monthly high of $7.5m.


Pictured: BCTs one-month price graph.

BCTs remained high for a week before Tiger Day began on the 28th, and I think the reason for this was that some players were not well prepared in advance. It could be that some players also changed their mind about the event once it was announced that the new rare animals were available, as when coupled with the best chance of the year to increase their hunting skill, this makes a trip to South Africa all the more attractive - especially as we have no idea what else the developers will add in years to come.

There may have also been some extra BCT demand from the factions involved in the flight delay war. Members of Monarch, PT, and CR were all hit with flight delays during Tiger Day, so I wonder if some may have used up extra BCTs in an attempt to reduce the impact of these delays. We also heard that members of NS were out in South Africa having some fun too, with all of this combining to make this year's Tiger Day the most popular ever, as nearly 10,000 people took flight to SA.


Pictured: Torn Travel Destinations three-year stat graph.

Interestingly, the price of Business Class Tickets didn't drop immediately after the event was complete, only losing 300k in value and remaining stable throughout the end of July. Their price has now dropped back down to $7m, however, and we don't expect it to change much from there going forward.


CASINO PASSES

Casino Passes have had an odd month, with their prices skyrocketing from their usual $120-130m all the way to $271m. Their price has since fallen back down to $160m, but they remain higher than usual. So what happened here?


Pictured: Casino Pass one-month price graph.

It turns out that a player who does not wish to be identified was responsible, as they were seen purchasing Casino Passes at hugely inflated prices. This player only went on a shopping spree for one day, but with fewer than 5,000 passes in circulation, this was enough to distort the market price. SpeedSkater personally sold several of her own passes to the player, having previously held off due to their market price being so low.

"Then on the 14th of this month my CP I had in the shop sold for $179m. I always keep one in my shop above market just to alert me when the market has increased again. So I look and sure enough prices are up again so I keep throwing them up one by one and REDACTED has bought every single one."

The Casino Pass buyer bought nine from SpeedSkater and at least three or four more from her factionmates. SpeedSkater initially suspected market manipulation, but then she took a look at the circulation chart and noticed that these expensive Casino Passes were being used almost immediately.


Pictured: Casino Pass one-month circulation graph.

Circulation dropped by 122 Casino Passes between the 13th and 17th, and when you see that their numbers have been rising by around 20 per day, that means roughly 140 Casino Passes were used during this period. SpeedSkater thinks that this player may have been buying for someone else, or they could just be addicted to gambling. This information was reported to bogie for investigation in case shenanigans were afoot, but it appears that all of the purchases were legit.

Both _SCOfield and SpeedSkater confirmed that they saw at least one Casino Pass being sold for as high as $620m. We still aren't sure why this player was so desperate to get their hands on so many Casino Passes, but we do know that the muggers took note of who was selling them.




LOTTERY VOUCHERS

Lottery Vouchers should be continuously rising in price at the moment, as their circulation has been dropping ever since the release of Stocks 3.0. From a high of 2.49m in circulation on the 3rd of April, we are now down to just 2.4m as of early August.


Pictured: Lottery Voucher six-month price graph.

However, as you can see from that trend, the fall in voucher circulation has been levelling off somewhat. We are still losing lottery vouchers, but not by nearly as much as we were before. The result is that Lottery Vouchers are falling in price slightly. According to YATA, their average price has been $923k recently, and I've noticed vouchers on the market going between $910k to $960k.

These observations were made in late July, whereas in early August, over $20k has been stripped from the price of a Lottery Voucher. The LSC stock which pays out vouchers has risen in price recently, however, so I expect this fall to be cancelled out shortly once the number of vouchers on the market begins to fall once more.


Pictured: Lottery voucher one-month price graph.

But don't expect this to be a long-term trend, as we feel some players will start taking a chance on the LSC stock and other unpopular options once they have purchased their priority stocks. In the most recent Local News article, it was revealed that LSC was the 21st most popular stock in terms of total shareholders, having lost 44% over the past month, leading to a 39.9% fall in its market cap.

These falls were caused by LSC's price rise, which tempted many players to cash out. The result of this should be another short-term drop in circulation for Lottery Vouchers, and that should lead to another price rise. But over time, with more players joining Torn and more investors putting money into LSC, I think we'll see things level off, and the voucher circulation will start to increase once more.


EROTIC DVDS

Erotic DVDs rose by $100k in the first week of July, but they have been falling ever since, and are now down to $2.2 million. This trend is linked to their circulation, which has been increasing ever since mid-June. Porno circulation fell from an increase of 20-30,000 per month to an increase of 4,000 per month with the release of Stocks 3.0, despite PRN's share requirement dropping from 1.5 to 1 million.

Over the past 30 days, this has risen to nearly 8,000 pornos per month, hence why the price of Erotic DVDs is now gradually slowing. We haven't seen much of a change in the number of shares bought in PRN stock recently, so we aren't 100% sure why their circulation graph is rising - it could be that fewer players are using the.

However, as I pointed out in last month's market report, Pornos are incredibly useful for happy jumps, with new accounts like mine always desperate to pump our stats up. What may be happening is that players are hoarding these ahead of the attacking competitions, as many people like to train heavily in between them. This means that Erotic DVDs may continue to fall in price, making this a good time to buy them up.


MEDICAL ITEMS

Medical items enjoyed a short-lived rise at the end of July, with both types of medkit having ended the month around the same price that they started. Both FAKs and SFAKs saw a bump in the first few days of August that helped them break-even, after an average July ended with a typical dip.


Pictured: First Aid Kit one-month price graph.

The performance of these two items has been strange in recent months, with a price spike in FAKs on the 1st of June leading some to suspect item market manipulation. However, a similar spike in the price of SFAKs on the same date saw their value stay high, as once the initial peak had flattened, their price remained several hundred dollars higher than usual.

Morphine had an odd month too, rising to as high as $13,263 on the 11th of July, before falling continuously to its current price of $12,711. Despite these fluctuations, the value of medical items appears to have more or less bottomed out of late, ending a run of constant price drops that began in late-2019.


Pictured: Morphine three-year price graph.

It's shocking to see just how much value medical items have gained and lost in the last few years. I made a sheet comparing their July 2020 and July 2021 values that lays bare the huge drop that has occurred.


Pictured: Medical Items 2020/2021 comparison.

Initial observations show that all medical items (Neumunes excluded) have lost value, with the exception being Blood Bag O-, the universally compatible blood type, which has gained $5,000 in value. Here are a few takeaways from this data set.

  • In 1-year small first aid kits lost the most value at almost 80% or 4/5ths. Imagine any other consumable item losing that much value in 1 year!
  • Morphines in the generic meds section lost the least amount of value compared to Small First Aid Kits or First Aid Kits, only $17,000 or 56.67%
  • Empty Blood Bags have been stable except for smaller spikes on their value graph.

Pictured: Blood Bags one-year price graph.

  • In the blood bags section Blood Bag A- lost the most value, they were $41,000 on July 2021 and now they're sitting at $18,000, losing over 50% of their value.
  • Blood Bag B- may look to have been the most stable, but don't let the comparision fool you. Their value graph tells a different story, one filled with lots of spikes, even increasing by 35,000 at one point.

Pictured: Blood Bag B- one-year price graph.

The phenomenon of the falling medical item prices is something the Market Report has investigated for a long time now. We speculated back in 2018 that the huge hump would eventually lead to a prolonged depression in their values as more players joined Torn City, and this prediction was proven correct. What we don't know is how this slide can be arrested. Answers on a postcard please!


SELECTED OTHERS

Concussion Grenades are up by $1.2 million this month, with their current price being $3.2 million. War is coming! A few other temporary weapons have also gone up. Sand has risen by $150k, Tear Gas is up $5k, and Smoke Grenades are up by $1,000, although they did add $7k during the month that has since been wiped out.

Xanax began the month on $832k but is down $2k after climbing as high as $834k this month. Elsewhere, PCP, Opium, and Ketamine lost $10k, but Ecstasy added $5k. Love Juice is really climbing at the moment, having added a million to its price in July. This item can't be used until February, but people are stocking up now.

Jesus is feeling the love this month as Rosary Beads are up from $2.9m to $4.1m. As for the crime enhancers, Wind-Proof Lighters are up by nearly $9 million, but Balaclavas, Glasses, and Mountain Bikes lost $100k. Screwdrivers, Slim Crowbars, and Padlocks gained about $20k, and one or two others added smaller amounts, but Driving Manuals and Razors lost about $20k each.

A $160k increase in the price of Christmas Spirit was noticed, with roughly $100k added to the other five-nerve alcohols too. Alcohol manipulation appears to be in full swing with regards to many of the other alcohol items, with four-nerve booze adding $40k to their value for no good reason, and rises of a few thousand seen in two and three-nerve booze.

Boxing Gloves are up $20 million thanks to a huge price bump on August 4th. On the flip side, Dumbbells and Skateboards have lost $10 million.

Books of Carols continue to rise, and have jumped from $11.9m to $12.9m, having been as high as $13.5m on the 3rd of August.

Gift Cards have lost $400k this month.

The Lawyer Business Card boom is over. The number of people buying shares in the LAG stock that pays out these items increased by 50% this month, leading to yet another huge increase in their circulation. Having been priced at over $1 million on the 5th of April, these are now worth just $450k apiece.

Electronics have found their niche but sales are now dropping. Games Consoles are down from $30k to $11k, Televisions dropped from $2.6k to $955, and both MP3 Players and CD Players have halved in price.

Firewalk Viruses have rise from $60k to $90k, and MightyGoober had nothing to do with it.

Strippograms are up from $16m to $21m, and Small Explosive Devices are also up by $600k each. Are these related? Probably not.


Original article

Comments