sugarvalves [1963573] —
Original article
Find out which events have affected item market prices over the past month, and which events will do so this month as we take a look at the latest Market Report.
October's Market Report has been delayed slightly by the need to report a few other current events. This month's review of the item market and the events which have affected it therefore includes one or two happenings from early November. Also, we are looking for trade-focused players to contribute to our monthly Market Reports in return for DPs. If you are interested, please contact Sugarvalves today.
DRUGS
A rise in the price of Xanax was expected ahead of the Trick or Treat event, and that is exactly what we saw, with the drug increasing in value from a pre-Halloween value of $830k to a high of $839k on the 26th of October - the highest its been since April.
Pictured: Xanax one-month price graph.
Post-Halloween, Xanax has remained roughly $1.5k higher than it was before the event. Some of this value has likely been kept due to the huge number of wars going on in the west, and the release of 50k chains. If Ranked Warring were to be released fully within the next month, expect Xanax to rise once more, and potentially stay high if the feature is received well by the community.
Ecstasy is getting cheaper by the month, with its $52k value a few days ago representing its lower price for almost a decade. Just over a grand has been added since then, but this still remains a good time to buy the drug if you're planning on dropping an E during Diabetes Day.
Opium has enjoyed a price rise during the first few days of November, with its $81.5k price representing its highest value since the summer. The drug endured an almost continuous drop over September and October, but a big drop in circulation during late October suggests the playerbase may have finally taken to this drug after its revamp in February.
Pictured: Opium one-month price graph.
And finally, we've seen demand for Love Juice pick up massively of late, with $1.5 million added to its value over the past month. This drug is only able to be used during February's Valentine's Day event, but many factions are stocking up on it now in anticipation. The recent release of 50k chains and the promised release of 100k chains in the near future will see many factions push their members to hit new records on Valentine's Day 2022
Love Juice was valued $500k at this point in 2020 than it is today, so we are expecting this drug to push beyond $20 million a pop by the time V-Day comes around. Stock up now if you're planning a romantic February chain.
MEDICAL ITEMS
Both types of First Aid Kit enjoyed a price rise in October thanks to the combined effect of the increase in warring and the Trick or Treat event. SFAKs rose from $5k to a high of nearly $7k, but they have now fallen down to $4.8k. FAKs rose from $7.6k to $12.5k, but they have kept more of this inflated value, and are currently priced at close to $9k each.
Pictured: First Aid Kit one-month price graph.
Morphine has done even better to retain its value. This drug added just $2.7k to its mid-October value of $14.4k, but it has kept almost all of this with its current price being $16.8k. A number of Bloods have also stayed high after October's boost, with AB+, AB-, and Irradiated Blood the only types failing to retain their additional value.
We expect all medical items to drop or stay flat until such a time as Ranked Warring is released, with a second possible bump coming around World Population Day in early December. However, if the war in the west unexpectedly turns into a broader conflict, we may see an earlier rise depending on how many factions become involved.
Speaking of which, Neumune Tablets ominously rose by $400k during early November, and when Monarch was hit with a Dirty Bomb we soon found out why. Expect their value to grow if further bombs are detonated during the Monarch v SA war for the west.
ENERGY DRINKS
CaffeineCon took place from the 14th to the 16th of October, with all energy drink effects doubled for the duration. The price of all energy drinks rose ahead of CaffeineCon, but what was interesting was that the 25 and 30 cans rose higher for Halloween one week later.
Pictured: X-Mass three-month price graph.
X-Mass and Taurine hit a high of $4.4 million on the 10th of October but rose to $4.7 million on the 27th. Red Cow and Rockstar saw their pre-Halloween peak come on the 4th of October at a price of $2.5 million, but they also went beyond this in late October, hitting $2.55 million on the 27th. Every other can type experienced a Halloween flourish too, but theirs were lower than their pre-CaffeineCon rise.
This late October growth was odd, as huge numbers of energy drinks were used during CaffeineCon, whereas comparatively few were drunk during Trick or Treat. If anything, we should've expected a drop in Energy Drink prices due to the anticipated increase in cans provided by Halloween. Over 2,000 Six Packs of Energy Drink were added to Torn's circulation as Trick or Treat drew to a close, causing their value to fall from $16 to $15 million.
Pictured: Six Pack Energy Drink one-month price graph.
It may be that many of these Six Packs remain unopened, meaning their contents have not been added to the circulation graphs for the individual cans yet. When this happens, it will contribute to the typical fall in can prices we see at this time of year as we approach the opening of Christmas Town in December.
If you have a hoard of cans ready to sell, don't expect prices to begin rising until mid-January at the earliest. With the combined effects of Halloween payouts and Christmas Town supplies, we don't foresee any great demand for Energy Drinks on the item market for some time.
CANDIES
The Diabetes Day event provides a triple boost to all candies from the 13th to the 15th of November. In the weeks before this 48-hour sugar rush, we often see candy prices rocket to 1.5 or 2 times their usual price. This year, the price increase has been somewhat muted, with a gradual increase seen over a longer period of time in some of the high-end candies.
Pictured: Jawbreaker six-month price graph.
In 2019, the 150 happy candies (Jawbreaker, Pixie Sticks, Sherbet, Humbugs) rose from $350k in mid-October to $1.5 million one month later. 2020 saw a less severe rise take place over a longer period of time, with their price of $400k in late September growing to $828k by the 9th of November. This year, the candy rise began as early as August, with their $300k value growing to $450-475k at the time of writing.
The trend is slightly different with the mid-tier candies, with 100 happy candies (Bag of Reindeer Droppings, Bag of Chocolate Truffles) enjoying their biggest peak in 2020, followed by 2019's event far behind. 75 happy candies (Eyeballs, Tootsie Rolls) have seen their price rise lowered year on year, as has the 50 happy candy (Bag of Candy Kisses).
Pictured: Bag of Candy Kisses three-year price graph.
One thing which unites all candies is that 2021 will likely see them all priced lower than usual in the run-up to Diabetes Day. Players are now more prepared for the event well in advance, so this is a major contributor to the muted price trends. Another factor is that many players have already achieved the Ecstatic honor bar, and are therefore uninterested in using Diabetes Day to achieve it again.
We've also seen a small increase in candy circulation caused by the Halloween event. However, before you go blaming trick or treaters for the low candy value, we must point out that the total candies added to circulation is much lower than we'd usually see at Christmas. This will remain true until more players have bought all of the upgrades they desire for their Halloween basket. It may also continue to remain the case after that, as players plump for upgrades that improve the value of their treats.
One final but significant factor affecting candy prices is the current spate of wars happening in Torn. With the west side of the city currently ravaged by conflict, it could be that many players simply do not have the time, energy, or the inclination to use Diabetes Day to train. As a result, we expect 2021's imminent Diabetes event to pass by with only a minor rise to candies expected.
TORN'S ANNIVERSARY
Torn's anniversary overlaps with Diabetes Day, and that means free Birthday Cupcakes and Strippogram Vouchers have a chance to spawn via the City Map on the 15th.
Last year, Birthday Cupcakes fell from a high of $3.2 million to a low of $766k after 9,600 were added to their circulation. These items have recovered most of this value since, and while a temporary price drop on the 15th is expected, we feel that Cupcakes are close to becoming abundant enough to be used by players on a regular basis - a trend that should see their value rise.
Likewise, Strippograms saw a drop of $3 million made to their $14 million price, but their relative rarity means they have recovered all of this and more as the year has gone by. Strippogram circulation was lowered slightly by the recent CaffeineCon event, but only by a few hundred items. We expect Strippograms to fall in price during Torn's anniversary, but probably by less than they fell last year.
BOOZE
Several alcohol items have dropped in price this month thanks to their increase in circulation post-Halloween. Stinky Swamp Punch has seen the biggest fall in price, with over 22k additional bottles causing it to lose about $40k in value. Wicked Witch saw a similar circulation increase, and it lost about $45k in value.
Pictured: Wicked Witch one-month price graph.
Pumpkin Brew received the biggest circulation rise with nearly 90k bottles added, losing $20k value as a result. Overall, we've seen every single alcohol fall to varying extents during October and early November, with the highest and lowest tier alcohols experiencing less of a drop compared to those which provide 2, 3, and 4 nerve.
The one exception to this at the top end is Christmas Spirit, which has risen by several hundred thousand dollars in the past day or two. At the bottom end, it looks like the manipulation applied to Bottles of Beer may be fading, as this item fell from $4k to $3.7k during the past week or two.
Pictured: Bottles of Beer one-month price graph.
Obviously, with Christmas Town approaching, we are looking at nothing but a downward trend for most mid and top-tier alcohols over the next month. In 2020, this fall began in late November to early December for most booze, with more pronounced drops seen in mid-tier alcohols such as Minty Mayhem and Mistletoe Madness. Their gradual recovery should begin early in the new year, so if you don't find what you need in CT, wait until January to buy up alcohol.
BOOSTERS
We saw a large increase in the number of jailings taking place in late October, and this had the knock-on effect of raising the price of Lawyer Business Cards. 9,811 Jailings were seen on the 26th of October, a figure which represented the third-highest in the past twelve months. The result of this was an upturn in the number of LBCs being used, and their value has gone up by $200k in response.
Pictured: Lawyer Business Card one-month price graph.
Erotic DVDs fell in price this month from $2.2 million to $2.1 million. This was caused in part by the 10,000 additional DVDs paid out to holders of the Deal With The Devil Halloween basket upgrade. However, we've also noticed that the PRN stock block rose considerably in price just before this, before dropping soon after. We believe that some players likely sold their stock during this rise, as Erotic DVD circulation has slowed somewhat of late. But PRN's current low value means there will be plenty of investors now able to snap up the benefit block to prevent a long-term circulation drop.
Pictured: PRN one-month stock price.
We saw a huge rise in the price of Feathery Hotel Coupons during late October, but these gains were temporary. FHCs hit $14.5 million on the 30th, but are now down to their pre-rise price of around $13.5 million. The demands of Halloween and war saw 20,000 removed from circulation between the 24th of October and the 1st of November, but their numbers are now picking up once more.
WEAPONS
The change to weapon damage made in late October has seen the value of certain weapons affected as a result. You can read this article to see which weapons were impacted the most in terms of damage, but they weren't always the weapons most impacted in terms of price.
We'll try to do a full report on the biggest revaluations next month, but for now, here's what we've noticed so far. The Type 98 Anti Tank's category was changed from Primary to Secondary and saw its magazine size reduced from 2 to 1. These changes, plus an 8.94$ Damage buff resulted in its price rising by nearly $1.5 million over the month.
Many Dual Melee weapons saw a small improvement applied, and this resulted in a price increase of $125 million for a pair of Dual Samurais, $400 million for a pair of Dual Scimitars, and $700 million for Dual Axes. These are low circulation items though, so take these values with a pinch of salt.
Outside of the damage changes, the popularity of the Concussion Grenade has seen its value grow by nearly $2 million this month. Only a 50 item drop in circulation was noticed, but their total circ of around 2,200-2,300 means even this had a big impact. Smoke Grenades were used much more extensively - over 100,000 were dropped - and they are now $30k more expensive per piece.
Pictured: Smoke Grenade one-month circulation graph.
60,000 Tear Gas grenades were also deployed in late October, causing their price to rise by about $10k. 120,000 Flash Grenades were used, too, and while their value did rise by $8k initially, their relative abundance means they've lost all of this since. The price of temp injectables also rose temporarily during Halloween, but they have now all fallen back to their pre-event prices.
And finally, a quick note on the two new items released this month. There are 865 Cleavers in existence now, and no more will arrive until they spawn again during Halloween 2022. Their current value is around $50 million, although they were priced as high as $236 million early on. Meat Hooks are priced roughly the same, with 814 of these in circulation. Expect both items to drop value year on year.
OTHER NOTABLES
Gift Cards have added over $700k this month.
Late October saw the value of LSC stock rise to an all-time high, and it seems many have been tempted to sell, as we now have a much-reduced supply of Lottery Vouchers. Their $900k value went up by $50k initially but has now leveled off at around $925k.
Business Class Tickets fell by $1 million thanks to a circulation increase of 2,000 during Halloween.
Donator Packs rose by $300k during late October, but have now fallen below $23 million. Two notable circulation increases were noticed this month too, with 6k and 10k events caused by one-off large donations.
DRUGS
A rise in the price of Xanax was expected ahead of the Trick or Treat event, and that is exactly what we saw, with the drug increasing in value from a pre-Halloween value of $830k to a high of $839k on the 26th of October - the highest its been since April.
Pictured: Xanax one-month price graph.
Post-Halloween, Xanax has remained roughly $1.5k higher than it was before the event. Some of this value has likely been kept due to the huge number of wars going on in the west, and the release of 50k chains. If Ranked Warring were to be released fully within the next month, expect Xanax to rise once more, and potentially stay high if the feature is received well by the community.
Ecstasy is getting cheaper by the month, with its $52k value a few days ago representing its lower price for almost a decade. Just over a grand has been added since then, but this still remains a good time to buy the drug if you're planning on dropping an E during Diabetes Day.
Opium has enjoyed a price rise during the first few days of November, with its $81.5k price representing its highest value since the summer. The drug endured an almost continuous drop over September and October, but a big drop in circulation during late October suggests the playerbase may have finally taken to this drug after its revamp in February.
Pictured: Opium one-month price graph.And finally, we've seen demand for Love Juice pick up massively of late, with $1.5 million added to its value over the past month. This drug is only able to be used during February's Valentine's Day event, but many factions are stocking up on it now in anticipation. The recent release of 50k chains and the promised release of 100k chains in the near future will see many factions push their members to hit new records on Valentine's Day 2022
Love Juice was valued $500k at this point in 2020 than it is today, so we are expecting this drug to push beyond $20 million a pop by the time V-Day comes around. Stock up now if you're planning a romantic February chain.
MEDICAL ITEMS
Both types of First Aid Kit enjoyed a price rise in October thanks to the combined effect of the increase in warring and the Trick or Treat event. SFAKs rose from $5k to a high of nearly $7k, but they have now fallen down to $4.8k. FAKs rose from $7.6k to $12.5k, but they have kept more of this inflated value, and are currently priced at close to $9k each.
Pictured: First Aid Kit one-month price graph.
Morphine has done even better to retain its value. This drug added just $2.7k to its mid-October value of $14.4k, but it has kept almost all of this with its current price being $16.8k. A number of Bloods have also stayed high after October's boost, with AB+, AB-, and Irradiated Blood the only types failing to retain their additional value.
We expect all medical items to drop or stay flat until such a time as Ranked Warring is released, with a second possible bump coming around World Population Day in early December. However, if the war in the west unexpectedly turns into a broader conflict, we may see an earlier rise depending on how many factions become involved.
Speaking of which, Neumune Tablets ominously rose by $400k during early November, and when Monarch was hit with a Dirty Bomb we soon found out why. Expect their value to grow if further bombs are detonated during the Monarch v SA war for the west.
ENERGY DRINKS
CaffeineCon took place from the 14th to the 16th of October, with all energy drink effects doubled for the duration. The price of all energy drinks rose ahead of CaffeineCon, but what was interesting was that the 25 and 30 cans rose higher for Halloween one week later.
Pictured: X-Mass three-month price graph.X-Mass and Taurine hit a high of $4.4 million on the 10th of October but rose to $4.7 million on the 27th. Red Cow and Rockstar saw their pre-Halloween peak come on the 4th of October at a price of $2.5 million, but they also went beyond this in late October, hitting $2.55 million on the 27th. Every other can type experienced a Halloween flourish too, but theirs were lower than their pre-CaffeineCon rise.
This late October growth was odd, as huge numbers of energy drinks were used during CaffeineCon, whereas comparatively few were drunk during Trick or Treat. If anything, we should've expected a drop in Energy Drink prices due to the anticipated increase in cans provided by Halloween. Over 2,000 Six Packs of Energy Drink were added to Torn's circulation as Trick or Treat drew to a close, causing their value to fall from $16 to $15 million.
Pictured: Six Pack Energy Drink one-month price graph.
It may be that many of these Six Packs remain unopened, meaning their contents have not been added to the circulation graphs for the individual cans yet. When this happens, it will contribute to the typical fall in can prices we see at this time of year as we approach the opening of Christmas Town in December.
If you have a hoard of cans ready to sell, don't expect prices to begin rising until mid-January at the earliest. With the combined effects of Halloween payouts and Christmas Town supplies, we don't foresee any great demand for Energy Drinks on the item market for some time.
CANDIES
The Diabetes Day event provides a triple boost to all candies from the 13th to the 15th of November. In the weeks before this 48-hour sugar rush, we often see candy prices rocket to 1.5 or 2 times their usual price. This year, the price increase has been somewhat muted, with a gradual increase seen over a longer period of time in some of the high-end candies.
Pictured: Jawbreaker six-month price graph.In 2019, the 150 happy candies (Jawbreaker, Pixie Sticks, Sherbet, Humbugs) rose from $350k in mid-October to $1.5 million one month later. 2020 saw a less severe rise take place over a longer period of time, with their price of $400k in late September growing to $828k by the 9th of November. This year, the candy rise began as early as August, with their $300k value growing to $450-475k at the time of writing.
The trend is slightly different with the mid-tier candies, with 100 happy candies (Bag of Reindeer Droppings, Bag of Chocolate Truffles) enjoying their biggest peak in 2020, followed by 2019's event far behind. 75 happy candies (Eyeballs, Tootsie Rolls) have seen their price rise lowered year on year, as has the 50 happy candy (Bag of Candy Kisses).
Pictured: Bag of Candy Kisses three-year price graph.
One thing which unites all candies is that 2021 will likely see them all priced lower than usual in the run-up to Diabetes Day. Players are now more prepared for the event well in advance, so this is a major contributor to the muted price trends. Another factor is that many players have already achieved the Ecstatic honor bar, and are therefore uninterested in using Diabetes Day to achieve it again.
We've also seen a small increase in candy circulation caused by the Halloween event. However, before you go blaming trick or treaters for the low candy value, we must point out that the total candies added to circulation is much lower than we'd usually see at Christmas. This will remain true until more players have bought all of the upgrades they desire for their Halloween basket. It may also continue to remain the case after that, as players plump for upgrades that improve the value of their treats.
One final but significant factor affecting candy prices is the current spate of wars happening in Torn. With the west side of the city currently ravaged by conflict, it could be that many players simply do not have the time, energy, or the inclination to use Diabetes Day to train. As a result, we expect 2021's imminent Diabetes event to pass by with only a minor rise to candies expected.
TORN'S ANNIVERSARY
Torn's anniversary overlaps with Diabetes Day, and that means free Birthday Cupcakes and Strippogram Vouchers have a chance to spawn via the City Map on the 15th.
Last year, Birthday Cupcakes fell from a high of $3.2 million to a low of $766k after 9,600 were added to their circulation. These items have recovered most of this value since, and while a temporary price drop on the 15th is expected, we feel that Cupcakes are close to becoming abundant enough to be used by players on a regular basis - a trend that should see their value rise.
Likewise, Strippograms saw a drop of $3 million made to their $14 million price, but their relative rarity means they have recovered all of this and more as the year has gone by. Strippogram circulation was lowered slightly by the recent CaffeineCon event, but only by a few hundred items. We expect Strippograms to fall in price during Torn's anniversary, but probably by less than they fell last year.
BOOZE
Several alcohol items have dropped in price this month thanks to their increase in circulation post-Halloween. Stinky Swamp Punch has seen the biggest fall in price, with over 22k additional bottles causing it to lose about $40k in value. Wicked Witch saw a similar circulation increase, and it lost about $45k in value.
Pictured: Wicked Witch one-month price graph.
Pumpkin Brew received the biggest circulation rise with nearly 90k bottles added, losing $20k value as a result. Overall, we've seen every single alcohol fall to varying extents during October and early November, with the highest and lowest tier alcohols experiencing less of a drop compared to those which provide 2, 3, and 4 nerve.
The one exception to this at the top end is Christmas Spirit, which has risen by several hundred thousand dollars in the past day or two. At the bottom end, it looks like the manipulation applied to Bottles of Beer may be fading, as this item fell from $4k to $3.7k during the past week or two.
Pictured: Bottles of Beer one-month price graph.
Obviously, with Christmas Town approaching, we are looking at nothing but a downward trend for most mid and top-tier alcohols over the next month. In 2020, this fall began in late November to early December for most booze, with more pronounced drops seen in mid-tier alcohols such as Minty Mayhem and Mistletoe Madness. Their gradual recovery should begin early in the new year, so if you don't find what you need in CT, wait until January to buy up alcohol.
BOOSTERS
We saw a large increase in the number of jailings taking place in late October, and this had the knock-on effect of raising the price of Lawyer Business Cards. 9,811 Jailings were seen on the 26th of October, a figure which represented the third-highest in the past twelve months. The result of this was an upturn in the number of LBCs being used, and their value has gone up by $200k in response.
Pictured: Lawyer Business Card one-month price graph.
Erotic DVDs fell in price this month from $2.2 million to $2.1 million. This was caused in part by the 10,000 additional DVDs paid out to holders of the Deal With The Devil Halloween basket upgrade. However, we've also noticed that the PRN stock block rose considerably in price just before this, before dropping soon after. We believe that some players likely sold their stock during this rise, as Erotic DVD circulation has slowed somewhat of late. But PRN's current low value means there will be plenty of investors now able to snap up the benefit block to prevent a long-term circulation drop.
Pictured: PRN one-month stock price.
We saw a huge rise in the price of Feathery Hotel Coupons during late October, but these gains were temporary. FHCs hit $14.5 million on the 30th, but are now down to their pre-rise price of around $13.5 million. The demands of Halloween and war saw 20,000 removed from circulation between the 24th of October and the 1st of November, but their numbers are now picking up once more.
WEAPONS
The change to weapon damage made in late October has seen the value of certain weapons affected as a result. You can read this article to see which weapons were impacted the most in terms of damage, but they weren't always the weapons most impacted in terms of price.
We'll try to do a full report on the biggest revaluations next month, but for now, here's what we've noticed so far. The Type 98 Anti Tank's category was changed from Primary to Secondary and saw its magazine size reduced from 2 to 1. These changes, plus an 8.94$ Damage buff resulted in its price rising by nearly $1.5 million over the month.
Many Dual Melee weapons saw a small improvement applied, and this resulted in a price increase of $125 million for a pair of Dual Samurais, $400 million for a pair of Dual Scimitars, and $700 million for Dual Axes. These are low circulation items though, so take these values with a pinch of salt.
Outside of the damage changes, the popularity of the Concussion Grenade has seen its value grow by nearly $2 million this month. Only a 50 item drop in circulation was noticed, but their total circ of around 2,200-2,300 means even this had a big impact. Smoke Grenades were used much more extensively - over 100,000 were dropped - and they are now $30k more expensive per piece.
Pictured: Smoke Grenade one-month circulation graph.
60,000 Tear Gas grenades were also deployed in late October, causing their price to rise by about $10k. 120,000 Flash Grenades were used, too, and while their value did rise by $8k initially, their relative abundance means they've lost all of this since. The price of temp injectables also rose temporarily during Halloween, but they have now all fallen back to their pre-event prices.
And finally, a quick note on the two new items released this month. There are 865 Cleavers in existence now, and no more will arrive until they spawn again during Halloween 2022. Their current value is around $50 million, although they were priced as high as $236 million early on. Meat Hooks are priced roughly the same, with 814 of these in circulation. Expect both items to drop value year on year.
OTHER NOTABLES
Gift Cards have added over $700k this month.
Late October saw the value of LSC stock rise to an all-time high, and it seems many have been tempted to sell, as we now have a much-reduced supply of Lottery Vouchers. Their $900k value went up by $50k initially but has now leveled off at around $925k.
Business Class Tickets fell by $1 million thanks to a circulation increase of 2,000 during Halloween.
Donator Packs rose by $300k during late October, but have now fallen below $23 million. Two notable circulation increases were noticed this month too, with 6k and 10k events caused by one-off large donations.
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