sugarvalves [1963573] —
Original article
Find out how Ranked Warring, Advanced Caches, and Christmas Town will affect the price of weapons, armors, cans, and other items in this month's Market Report.
WEAPONRY FLASH SALE!!!
The big news this week was the release of Ranked Warring and Advanced Caches, both of which have led to some interesting developments in the arms market.
So far we've seen 50 factions sign up for Ranked Warring, and that means several thousand players will need weapons and armor over the next few weeks. But if anyone thinks they're going to be able to pick up a few bargains ahead of the anticipated rise in demand they are dead wrong, as one seller noticed people stocking up several months ago.
"The arrival of ranked warring was announced on the 24th of September through the forum. The following month was business as usual, but close to Halloween, the sales started to skyrocket. From the 20th of Oct since the 20th of Nov, I have sold Weapons and armor for over $6.2b, which is 20.7% of my total turnover since I started trading in October 2020. Every time a ranked warring beta was announced, some members of the participating factions bought from me. In 30 days, I sold about three months’ worth of items." - Matzkops
Matzkops was able to sell some of his 40% quality Armalite stock for $65m during this period, whereas usually, such a weapon would go for just $45-50m. 50% and 60% Armalites are now going for as much as $180m and $500m respectively, and the highest price we've seen is $650m for a 63% Armalite. The average Armalite price rocketed in late September, and prices have remained higher than usual ever since.
Pictured: Armalite one-month price graph.
In addition to Armaltes, Matzkops has identified high-end Diamond Bladed Knives, Motorcycle Helmets, Macanas, and DBKs as those which were in demand ahead of the first round of fights. Matzkops stocked up on many of these items ahead of the release of Ranked Warring on the 7th, and he now seems to be sitting pretty as customers flock to his bazaar.
"Motorcycle helmets had another price increase. Where one year ago, I sold a 53% one for less than 100m, that same helmet would be worth 350m. The base price has gone from 8m to 55m since I started trading. No one knows where this will end, but my guess is that they will find a stable base price at 100m with helmets with a quality over 65% going for close than 1b." - Matzkops
Pictured: Motorcycle Helmet one-month price graph.
Another weapon Matzkops has seen rise in price is the Blowgun. He attributes this trend to Mug, as his guide to fighting repeatedly praised this weapon, which in turn caused an increase in demand for Blowguns with a high poison chance. Blowguns also saw their poison DOT damage rise and become lethal in November, a move that must have further contributed to their increase in value.
"The change to have DOT able to kill targets means the Blowgun market has exploded which has seen a lot of travelling to China to pick up rare blowguns." - Bumfluff
Pictured: Blowgun one-month circulation graph.
Molotov Cocktails and Flamethrowers were similarly buffed with regard to burning damage. Molotovs were valued at $60k but rose to a high of $107k before falling down to $74k. Flamethrowers added $200k initially, but they now sit only $100k above their pre-buff price. Another item that was improved was the Bread Knife. These are too low in circulation for us to accurately analyse their value, but they will certainly cost more now that their base damage has risen from 19 to 41.
Or will they?
"Since more rare weapons are coming in, I would sell all my expensive weapons at a cheaper price b4 the market gets flooded. like with the meat hooks." - TheNorthIsEast
The Advanced Weapon and Armor caches paid out by ranked warring will provide Torn citizens with weapons of a higher quality than they have ever seen before. When Advanced items become more widely available, we will eventually see standard high-quality weapons superseded by double bonus red weapons at the top of rich players' wishlists. This will likely lead to regular weapons falling in value slightly, including rare weapons and those of high quality, as such items will no longer represent the premium option.
"Looks to me like people are liquidating these weapons [rare and high end] for readily available cash in anticipation of Ranked War gear going on sale in the near future... I would not be surprised to see prices drop in the near future, could see Dual Hammers stabilizing around the $750 million mark, the middle 2 at $1 billion, and Dual Samurai around $2 billion. An extreme demand for cash could also see prices on non-essential luxury items such as Collectibles drop as well." - SinCitySinner
Pictured: A large number of duals and NPC weapons up for sale.
The good news for those of a broke-ass disposition is that the introduction of Advanced caches will increase the amount of firepower and armor protection a Torn dollar can buy you. As demand for standard weapons and armor drops among Torn's elite, those with money put aside for war materiel would be wise hold off and take advantage of the lower-priced Duals, NPC items, and high-quality Armalites that will soon be on offer.
But what does this forthcoming trend mean for bazaar owners and weapon runners? Offertory's excellent thread predicts that players who regularly travel to buy weapons and armors overseas may eventually have to endure lower profit margins if they wish to continue. In the meantime, traders like Matzkops have been smart to stock up on high-quality weapons and armor ahead of Ranked Warring, but it seems the supply of these items may be limited in future.
The relatively low number of enlisted factions leads us to believe that many are delaying their entry until after the holiday season. If this turns out to be the case, the demand for weaponry and armor will be spread over several months, which may mean that the demand for high-quality standard weapons and armors continues well into the new year. But this demand won't last forever, so those with stockpiles of high-quality standards would be wise to sell them at a premium while you still can.
ITEM MARKET CHANGE
Buried within the Advanced Warring announcement was a comment from Chedburn that indicates an upgrade to the Item Market can be expected soon. The exact nature of this upgrade is not yet known by the public, but the wording of the announcement suggests it will allow players to search for and identify higher-quality weapons and armors with ease.
As Patient noted in the forums, weapons and armors cannot be stacked within Bazaars at present, and few players have the patience or the time to scroll through tens or hundreds of weapons in order to price them correctly. Likewise, many players of a certain level are content to purchase the cheapest weapon or the highest quality without comparing them to others on the market.
With a more user-friendly item market to play with, we may see players start to be more meticulous with their purchases. Once this item market change is implemented, it may be harder to sell low-quality versions of weapons like Armalites than it presently is.
CANDIES COLLAPSE
Diabetes Day took place midway through November, with this event tripling the happiness provided by all candy items. What's interesting is that while many candies behaved as expected by rising in price before the event and falling after, some candies lost far more after Diabetes Day than they gained before it.
Pictured: Gold Easter Egg three-month price graph.
Gold Easter Eggs averaged between $1.8-2.1m before Diabetes Day, but have fallen to just $1.5m at the time of writing. The Birthday Cupcake, Torn's only other 250 happy item fared slightly better, rising from $1.9m to $2.8m ahead of the event. However, the cupcake's value has now plummeted to $1.3m due to the falling demand and an increase in circulation - roughly 5,000 extra cupcakes now exist thanks to Torn's anniversary.
150 candies such as Jawbreakers, Pixie Sticks, Bags of Sherbet, and Bags of Humbugs are also down on their pre-Diabetes Day values. The number of these items used during D-day varied wildly due to their differing circulations, with only 700 (5% of total circ) Humbugs used compared to 30,000 (14$ of total circ) Pixie Sticks consumed.
Humbugs are $120,000 more expensive than Jawbreakers right now despite being statistically identical in terms of happiness provision, with Pixies and Sherbets tens of thousands of dollars cheaper than Humbugs too. Humbugs topped out at $649k immediately prior to Diabetes Day, whereas the other 150 happy items hit a max of around $450k. All of them have now lost a considerable amount of value, and things are only going to get worse as we approach Christmas.
Pictured: Bag of Sherbet one-month price graph.
This time last year, Sherbets were $70k better off and would go on to lose $40k gradually over the course of the next month. Similar trends were seen in the other 150 candies except for Humbugs, as they experienced both a gradual drop and a sudden one, with the latter caused by Duke's dumping of 10,000 Humbugs during his Christmas Giveaway. This event, which returns in less than a week, should result in the 150 candies starting to equalise in price come the new year.
The biggest drops are often felt by the lower-tier candies, as they are given out in much higher quantities during Christmas Town. But will that be the case this year? Perhaps not. CT's release in 2020 saw $50k wiped off the price of Reindeer Droppings and Chocolate Truffles within just four days, and this was when they were valued at $150k. With these items now priced at just $80k heading into CT, many are wondering how low candies can possibly go.
Pictured: Bag of Chocolate Truffles one-year price graph.
The answer may be not much lower. Over the past three years, the circulation of candies has increased year on year, and that means that prices have fallen gradually too. However, this increased circulation means that the range of prices throughout the year has narrowed, with peaks falling and the troughs being less pronounced. As the circulation of an item type increases over time, the annual Christmas Town dump becomes slightly less impactful upon their overall value.
Pictured: Bag of Tootsie Rolls three-year price graph.
Our prediction, therefore, is for Christmas Town to once more have a big impact on the price of candies, but perhaps not as much as usual. The passing of Diabetes Day has already done a number on candy prices, and this, coupled with the lowered proportional impact of Christmas Town, could lead to a less severe dip than usual in the value of candy items coming into the new year.
ENERGY DRINKS
Another item that may be partially shielded from the usual effects of Christmas Town is the Energy Drink. Despite the fact that cans are given out in huge quantities during Christmas Town, the value of these items does not conform to the same long-term trends as candies. Energy Drinks are used far more consistently over the course of the year than candies, so their circulation doesn't increase as much over time thanks to the annual Christmas Town dumps.
Pictured: X-MASS three-year circulation graph.
Whereas candy prices are going down year on year, most cans either stay the same or rise slightly overall. From 2019-2021, X-MASS's peaks are all within the range of $4.3m to $4.7m, with these rises occurring in October every year. Come December, you'll find top-tier cans priced on average between $3.4m-3.8m most years, and they bottom out at $3.2-3.3m.
"Purchasing bulk cans of X-MASS during the seasonal January crash {3.2m - 3.3m} and holding a large surplus of cans until the seasonal high in October {4.4m-4.7m} returns a very nice margin of profit of about 20-25%. In a game where the Rich get Richer, dropping a few billion into cans at their all-time low can be an easy way to start a 'soft second bank investment'." - 4n4rchist
The 20 and 25 energy cans were quite high in 2019, but over the past two years, they too have been rather predictable, with their peaks and troughs staying within previously established limits. This isn't true of the three newest cans, as with Goose Juice, Damp Valley, and Crocozade only holding circulations of around 250-300k, Christmas Town hits their value far harder than the other cans.
Pictured: Damp Valley three-year price graph.
Overall, we're predicting that the 20-30 cans will behave as they have in previous years after CT, with 20-25e cans falling by about 20%, and 30e cans losing less, around 10-12%. The 5-15e cans fell by around 30% last year, but based on their current prices we think a drop of 20-25% is more likely this time around. Some observers believe even these amounts are too high, with the demands of two new features potentially able to counter the negative effects of the Christmas Town circulation increase.
"I will also be curious to see if can prices continue to follow the post-Christmas Town trends with both 50k chains and ranked warring being added. The potential demand may be much greater." - SpeedSkateR
MEDICAL ITEMS
Medkits haven't responded to the release of ranked warring in the way that other items have. FAKs and SFAKs both enjoyed peaks in September and October due to intense faction warring, but the ranked warring tests and December 7th's full release have done nothing to change their downward price trends.
Pictured: First Aid Kit six-month price graph.
This could change in the new year as more factions take part in ranked warring, but we're expecting a more gradual increase rather than another big price spike. Morphine, on the other hand, has been more stable, as while it has lost some value lately, this item has retained most of the gains enjoyed during September and October's wars.
Pictured: Morphine one-year price graph.
Morphine is still some way from its historical value of around $50k a pop, but the fact it has kept closer to $20k than $10k in recent weeks means it is well placed to recover to its 2020 value of $25k should demand increase.
Two dirty bomb detonations over the past month or so have resulted in several Neumune price spikes. Values of between $1.7m and $2.3m were hit during October and November as players used the item to reduce the effects of radiation. Fears over further radioactive attacks may have caused Neumune to rise in recent days, but the leak of a particularly interesting Advanced Weaponry bonus may also have played a part.
"With the announcement of the weapon bonus that causes radiation, there might be a chance where neumunes start to get pricier once more weapons with the radiation bonus come into play as a result of ranked warring." - Aaassh
Pictured: Neumune one-month price graph.
And in related news, the aforementioned Dirty Bomb strikes caused circulation of Irradiated Blood to rise by over 5,000. This initially caused a fall in the blood type's value, but its price spiked to $30k and then fell back to $21k in recent days for reasons unknown.
BOOZE
Alcohol is another item that is given out freely throughout Christmas Town, but it is five nerve booze that will suffer the most due to the double whammy of CT and Duke's Giveaway. Neither Moonshine, Green Stout, nor Christmas Spirit are available in CT, but 10,000 of the latter will be provided by Duke during his twelve days of Christmas event.
Pictured: Bottle of Christmas Spirit one-year price graph.
This circulation increase combined with the overall impact on alcohol values caused by CT's distribution of lower nerve booze means Christmas Spirit will lose more value than the other five nerve alcohols, as strangely, it tends to have an inflated price at this time of year just before the giveaway. The other five nerve booze items will drop in price slightly too, but only by $40-50k compared to their value today.
Much larger falls will be experienced by 4 and 3 nerve alcohols. Over 300,000 Mistletoe Madness, Christmas Cocktails, Minty Mayhem, and Kandy Kane were picked up Christmas Town last year, and since we have roughly 1,000 more daily users than we did in 2020, we're predicting that even more booze will be found this time around.
Falls of between 25-37% were noticed in 2-4 nerve alcohol last year, but with prices for all alcohol being much lower than they were in 2020, we think we're looking at a 20-30% fall for all alcohol except 1 and 5 nerve booze.
DRUGS
Xanax enjoyed a peak in late October thanks to the Halloween event, rising from $830k to almost $840k as spooky season came to a close. It lost all but $2k of this value initially, but ranked warring caused Xanax to shoot up once more, with the 23rd of November's price of $843k marking its highest value since February. Xans usually dip as we enter the new year, but we're expecting prices to stay around $840k at least, with a rise in value far more likely as competitive warring returns to Torn City.
Love Juice has risen by $1.5m in the past month but has plateaued at just under $15m for around 10 days now. In 2020, its early December value was $15.2m, but despite it being slightly lower this time around, we expect its peak price to go far beyond last year's high of $19.2m as the twin factors of Valentine's Day and ranked warring combine in mid-February.
"Vicodin also increased greatly in value from $2,116 to well over $3,000 average. Might also be in connection with the ranked wars." - Lightor
MISCELLANEOUS
The number of Stat Enhancers in circulation went up massively this month, as many top players suddenly have an excess of spare cash now that the city's wars have died down. Skateboards increased in circ gradually by 100 between mid-November and early December, but the other SEs went up by several hundred circ on specific dates. On the 21st it was Parachutes that were bought up, then Boxing Gloves on the 27th, and Dumbbells from the 1st. This looks like a coordinated effort from either traders or one particular faction to corner the SE market or stock up at current prices.
Concussion Grenades rose by $1.4m throughout November from $3.7m to $5.1m and even went as high as $7.1m towards the end of the month. Several hundred of these low-circulation items were used from September to November, but supplies are now increasing, so we may see a price drop between now and Xmas. The same is true of Smokes, Tear Gas, and Flash Grenades.
"Pepper spray used to sell for around $2000 ... unfortunately it is down 300 bucks, not sure why. As a buyer of 100 per day from big Al's and then reselling them, it's a concerning trend." - Davidrk
Temp Injectable use has slowed this month, so expect their value to fall soon - unless something interesting happens to them...
Strippogram circulation rose by around 1,800 items thanks to Torn's anniversary map spawns. This increase impacted their value considerably, with these saucy vouchers losing $10m within one month alone. $11.8m is now their lowest consistent value since spring 2020.
Books of Carols are $1.7m cheaper than they were last month and are expected to fall in value again soon due to Christmas Town and Duke's Giveaway.
Erotic DVDs have recovered slightly after their huge fall in early November. Having fallen below $2m they are now valued at $2.17m.
Lawyer Business Cards enjoyed a brief rise on the 13th of November but are now falling again. They are $90k down on their value from this time last month.
And finally, the value of some of Torn's most desirable masks may drop slightly due to the news that two new masks will be given away via Duke's giveaway. As a special treat for our Market Report readers, here's a highly pixelated screenshot of one of the people we've chosen to immortalise in mask form.
The big news this week was the release of Ranked Warring and Advanced Caches, both of which have led to some interesting developments in the arms market.
So far we've seen 50 factions sign up for Ranked Warring, and that means several thousand players will need weapons and armor over the next few weeks. But if anyone thinks they're going to be able to pick up a few bargains ahead of the anticipated rise in demand they are dead wrong, as one seller noticed people stocking up several months ago.
"The arrival of ranked warring was announced on the 24th of September through the forum. The following month was business as usual, but close to Halloween, the sales started to skyrocket. From the 20th of Oct since the 20th of Nov, I have sold Weapons and armor for over $6.2b, which is 20.7% of my total turnover since I started trading in October 2020. Every time a ranked warring beta was announced, some members of the participating factions bought from me. In 30 days, I sold about three months’ worth of items." - Matzkops
Matzkops was able to sell some of his 40% quality Armalite stock for $65m during this period, whereas usually, such a weapon would go for just $45-50m. 50% and 60% Armalites are now going for as much as $180m and $500m respectively, and the highest price we've seen is $650m for a 63% Armalite. The average Armalite price rocketed in late September, and prices have remained higher than usual ever since.
Pictured: Armalite one-month price graph.In addition to Armaltes, Matzkops has identified high-end Diamond Bladed Knives, Motorcycle Helmets, Macanas, and DBKs as those which were in demand ahead of the first round of fights. Matzkops stocked up on many of these items ahead of the release of Ranked Warring on the 7th, and he now seems to be sitting pretty as customers flock to his bazaar.
"Motorcycle helmets had another price increase. Where one year ago, I sold a 53% one for less than 100m, that same helmet would be worth 350m. The base price has gone from 8m to 55m since I started trading. No one knows where this will end, but my guess is that they will find a stable base price at 100m with helmets with a quality over 65% going for close than 1b." - Matzkops
Pictured: Motorcycle Helmet one-month price graph.
Another weapon Matzkops has seen rise in price is the Blowgun. He attributes this trend to Mug, as his guide to fighting repeatedly praised this weapon, which in turn caused an increase in demand for Blowguns with a high poison chance. Blowguns also saw their poison DOT damage rise and become lethal in November, a move that must have further contributed to their increase in value.
"The change to have DOT able to kill targets means the Blowgun market has exploded which has seen a lot of travelling to China to pick up rare blowguns." - Bumfluff
Pictured: Blowgun one-month circulation graph.
Molotov Cocktails and Flamethrowers were similarly buffed with regard to burning damage. Molotovs were valued at $60k but rose to a high of $107k before falling down to $74k. Flamethrowers added $200k initially, but they now sit only $100k above their pre-buff price. Another item that was improved was the Bread Knife. These are too low in circulation for us to accurately analyse their value, but they will certainly cost more now that their base damage has risen from 19 to 41.
Or will they?
"Since more rare weapons are coming in, I would sell all my expensive weapons at a cheaper price b4 the market gets flooded. like with the meat hooks." - TheNorthIsEast
The Advanced Weapon and Armor caches paid out by ranked warring will provide Torn citizens with weapons of a higher quality than they have ever seen before. When Advanced items become more widely available, we will eventually see standard high-quality weapons superseded by double bonus red weapons at the top of rich players' wishlists. This will likely lead to regular weapons falling in value slightly, including rare weapons and those of high quality, as such items will no longer represent the premium option.
"Looks to me like people are liquidating these weapons [rare and high end] for readily available cash in anticipation of Ranked War gear going on sale in the near future... I would not be surprised to see prices drop in the near future, could see Dual Hammers stabilizing around the $750 million mark, the middle 2 at $1 billion, and Dual Samurai around $2 billion. An extreme demand for cash could also see prices on non-essential luxury items such as Collectibles drop as well." - SinCitySinner
Pictured: A large number of duals and NPC weapons up for sale.
The good news for those of a broke-ass disposition is that the introduction of Advanced caches will increase the amount of firepower and armor protection a Torn dollar can buy you. As demand for standard weapons and armor drops among Torn's elite, those with money put aside for war materiel would be wise hold off and take advantage of the lower-priced Duals, NPC items, and high-quality Armalites that will soon be on offer.
But what does this forthcoming trend mean for bazaar owners and weapon runners? Offertory's excellent thread predicts that players who regularly travel to buy weapons and armors overseas may eventually have to endure lower profit margins if they wish to continue. In the meantime, traders like Matzkops have been smart to stock up on high-quality weapons and armor ahead of Ranked Warring, but it seems the supply of these items may be limited in future.
The relatively low number of enlisted factions leads us to believe that many are delaying their entry until after the holiday season. If this turns out to be the case, the demand for weaponry and armor will be spread over several months, which may mean that the demand for high-quality standard weapons and armors continues well into the new year. But this demand won't last forever, so those with stockpiles of high-quality standards would be wise to sell them at a premium while you still can.
ITEM MARKET CHANGE
Buried within the Advanced Warring announcement was a comment from Chedburn that indicates an upgrade to the Item Market can be expected soon. The exact nature of this upgrade is not yet known by the public, but the wording of the announcement suggests it will allow players to search for and identify higher-quality weapons and armors with ease.
As Patient noted in the forums, weapons and armors cannot be stacked within Bazaars at present, and few players have the patience or the time to scroll through tens or hundreds of weapons in order to price them correctly. Likewise, many players of a certain level are content to purchase the cheapest weapon or the highest quality without comparing them to others on the market.
With a more user-friendly item market to play with, we may see players start to be more meticulous with their purchases. Once this item market change is implemented, it may be harder to sell low-quality versions of weapons like Armalites than it presently is.
CANDIES COLLAPSE
Diabetes Day took place midway through November, with this event tripling the happiness provided by all candy items. What's interesting is that while many candies behaved as expected by rising in price before the event and falling after, some candies lost far more after Diabetes Day than they gained before it.
Pictured: Gold Easter Egg three-month price graph.
Gold Easter Eggs averaged between $1.8-2.1m before Diabetes Day, but have fallen to just $1.5m at the time of writing. The Birthday Cupcake, Torn's only other 250 happy item fared slightly better, rising from $1.9m to $2.8m ahead of the event. However, the cupcake's value has now plummeted to $1.3m due to the falling demand and an increase in circulation - roughly 5,000 extra cupcakes now exist thanks to Torn's anniversary.
150 candies such as Jawbreakers, Pixie Sticks, Bags of Sherbet, and Bags of Humbugs are also down on their pre-Diabetes Day values. The number of these items used during D-day varied wildly due to their differing circulations, with only 700 (5% of total circ) Humbugs used compared to 30,000 (14$ of total circ) Pixie Sticks consumed.
Humbugs are $120,000 more expensive than Jawbreakers right now despite being statistically identical in terms of happiness provision, with Pixies and Sherbets tens of thousands of dollars cheaper than Humbugs too. Humbugs topped out at $649k immediately prior to Diabetes Day, whereas the other 150 happy items hit a max of around $450k. All of them have now lost a considerable amount of value, and things are only going to get worse as we approach Christmas.
Pictured: Bag of Sherbet one-month price graph.
This time last year, Sherbets were $70k better off and would go on to lose $40k gradually over the course of the next month. Similar trends were seen in the other 150 candies except for Humbugs, as they experienced both a gradual drop and a sudden one, with the latter caused by Duke's dumping of 10,000 Humbugs during his Christmas Giveaway. This event, which returns in less than a week, should result in the 150 candies starting to equalise in price come the new year.
The biggest drops are often felt by the lower-tier candies, as they are given out in much higher quantities during Christmas Town. But will that be the case this year? Perhaps not. CT's release in 2020 saw $50k wiped off the price of Reindeer Droppings and Chocolate Truffles within just four days, and this was when they were valued at $150k. With these items now priced at just $80k heading into CT, many are wondering how low candies can possibly go.
Pictured: Bag of Chocolate Truffles one-year price graph.The answer may be not much lower. Over the past three years, the circulation of candies has increased year on year, and that means that prices have fallen gradually too. However, this increased circulation means that the range of prices throughout the year has narrowed, with peaks falling and the troughs being less pronounced. As the circulation of an item type increases over time, the annual Christmas Town dump becomes slightly less impactful upon their overall value.
Pictured: Bag of Tootsie Rolls three-year price graph.
Our prediction, therefore, is for Christmas Town to once more have a big impact on the price of candies, but perhaps not as much as usual. The passing of Diabetes Day has already done a number on candy prices, and this, coupled with the lowered proportional impact of Christmas Town, could lead to a less severe dip than usual in the value of candy items coming into the new year.
ENERGY DRINKS
Another item that may be partially shielded from the usual effects of Christmas Town is the Energy Drink. Despite the fact that cans are given out in huge quantities during Christmas Town, the value of these items does not conform to the same long-term trends as candies. Energy Drinks are used far more consistently over the course of the year than candies, so their circulation doesn't increase as much over time thanks to the annual Christmas Town dumps.
Pictured: X-MASS three-year circulation graph.
Whereas candy prices are going down year on year, most cans either stay the same or rise slightly overall. From 2019-2021, X-MASS's peaks are all within the range of $4.3m to $4.7m, with these rises occurring in October every year. Come December, you'll find top-tier cans priced on average between $3.4m-3.8m most years, and they bottom out at $3.2-3.3m.
"Purchasing bulk cans of X-MASS during the seasonal January crash {3.2m - 3.3m} and holding a large surplus of cans until the seasonal high in October {4.4m-4.7m} returns a very nice margin of profit of about 20-25%. In a game where the Rich get Richer, dropping a few billion into cans at their all-time low can be an easy way to start a 'soft second bank investment'." - 4n4rchist
The 20 and 25 energy cans were quite high in 2019, but over the past two years, they too have been rather predictable, with their peaks and troughs staying within previously established limits. This isn't true of the three newest cans, as with Goose Juice, Damp Valley, and Crocozade only holding circulations of around 250-300k, Christmas Town hits their value far harder than the other cans.
Pictured: Damp Valley three-year price graph.
Overall, we're predicting that the 20-30 cans will behave as they have in previous years after CT, with 20-25e cans falling by about 20%, and 30e cans losing less, around 10-12%. The 5-15e cans fell by around 30% last year, but based on their current prices we think a drop of 20-25% is more likely this time around. Some observers believe even these amounts are too high, with the demands of two new features potentially able to counter the negative effects of the Christmas Town circulation increase.
"I will also be curious to see if can prices continue to follow the post-Christmas Town trends with both 50k chains and ranked warring being added. The potential demand may be much greater." - SpeedSkateR
MEDICAL ITEMS
Medkits haven't responded to the release of ranked warring in the way that other items have. FAKs and SFAKs both enjoyed peaks in September and October due to intense faction warring, but the ranked warring tests and December 7th's full release have done nothing to change their downward price trends.
Pictured: First Aid Kit six-month price graph.
This could change in the new year as more factions take part in ranked warring, but we're expecting a more gradual increase rather than another big price spike. Morphine, on the other hand, has been more stable, as while it has lost some value lately, this item has retained most of the gains enjoyed during September and October's wars.
Pictured: Morphine one-year price graph.
Morphine is still some way from its historical value of around $50k a pop, but the fact it has kept closer to $20k than $10k in recent weeks means it is well placed to recover to its 2020 value of $25k should demand increase.
Two dirty bomb detonations over the past month or so have resulted in several Neumune price spikes. Values of between $1.7m and $2.3m were hit during October and November as players used the item to reduce the effects of radiation. Fears over further radioactive attacks may have caused Neumune to rise in recent days, but the leak of a particularly interesting Advanced Weaponry bonus may also have played a part.
"With the announcement of the weapon bonus that causes radiation, there might be a chance where neumunes start to get pricier once more weapons with the radiation bonus come into play as a result of ranked warring." - Aaassh
Pictured: Neumune one-month price graph.And in related news, the aforementioned Dirty Bomb strikes caused circulation of Irradiated Blood to rise by over 5,000. This initially caused a fall in the blood type's value, but its price spiked to $30k and then fell back to $21k in recent days for reasons unknown.
BOOZE
Alcohol is another item that is given out freely throughout Christmas Town, but it is five nerve booze that will suffer the most due to the double whammy of CT and Duke's Giveaway. Neither Moonshine, Green Stout, nor Christmas Spirit are available in CT, but 10,000 of the latter will be provided by Duke during his twelve days of Christmas event.
Pictured: Bottle of Christmas Spirit one-year price graph.This circulation increase combined with the overall impact on alcohol values caused by CT's distribution of lower nerve booze means Christmas Spirit will lose more value than the other five nerve alcohols, as strangely, it tends to have an inflated price at this time of year just before the giveaway. The other five nerve booze items will drop in price slightly too, but only by $40-50k compared to their value today.
Much larger falls will be experienced by 4 and 3 nerve alcohols. Over 300,000 Mistletoe Madness, Christmas Cocktails, Minty Mayhem, and Kandy Kane were picked up Christmas Town last year, and since we have roughly 1,000 more daily users than we did in 2020, we're predicting that even more booze will be found this time around.
Falls of between 25-37% were noticed in 2-4 nerve alcohol last year, but with prices for all alcohol being much lower than they were in 2020, we think we're looking at a 20-30% fall for all alcohol except 1 and 5 nerve booze.
DRUGS
Xanax enjoyed a peak in late October thanks to the Halloween event, rising from $830k to almost $840k as spooky season came to a close. It lost all but $2k of this value initially, but ranked warring caused Xanax to shoot up once more, with the 23rd of November's price of $843k marking its highest value since February. Xans usually dip as we enter the new year, but we're expecting prices to stay around $840k at least, with a rise in value far more likely as competitive warring returns to Torn City.
Love Juice has risen by $1.5m in the past month but has plateaued at just under $15m for around 10 days now. In 2020, its early December value was $15.2m, but despite it being slightly lower this time around, we expect its peak price to go far beyond last year's high of $19.2m as the twin factors of Valentine's Day and ranked warring combine in mid-February.
"Vicodin also increased greatly in value from $2,116 to well over $3,000 average. Might also be in connection with the ranked wars." - Lightor
MISCELLANEOUS
The number of Stat Enhancers in circulation went up massively this month, as many top players suddenly have an excess of spare cash now that the city's wars have died down. Skateboards increased in circ gradually by 100 between mid-November and early December, but the other SEs went up by several hundred circ on specific dates. On the 21st it was Parachutes that were bought up, then Boxing Gloves on the 27th, and Dumbbells from the 1st. This looks like a coordinated effort from either traders or one particular faction to corner the SE market or stock up at current prices.
Concussion Grenades rose by $1.4m throughout November from $3.7m to $5.1m and even went as high as $7.1m towards the end of the month. Several hundred of these low-circulation items were used from September to November, but supplies are now increasing, so we may see a price drop between now and Xmas. The same is true of Smokes, Tear Gas, and Flash Grenades.
"Pepper spray used to sell for around $2000 ... unfortunately it is down 300 bucks, not sure why. As a buyer of 100 per day from big Al's and then reselling them, it's a concerning trend." - Davidrk
Temp Injectable use has slowed this month, so expect their value to fall soon - unless something interesting happens to them...
Strippogram circulation rose by around 1,800 items thanks to Torn's anniversary map spawns. This increase impacted their value considerably, with these saucy vouchers losing $10m within one month alone. $11.8m is now their lowest consistent value since spring 2020.
Books of Carols are $1.7m cheaper than they were last month and are expected to fall in value again soon due to Christmas Town and Duke's Giveaway.
Erotic DVDs have recovered slightly after their huge fall in early November. Having fallen below $2m they are now valued at $2.17m.
Lawyer Business Cards enjoyed a brief rise on the 13th of November but are now falling again. They are $90k down on their value from this time last month.
And finally, the value of some of Torn's most desirable masks may drop slightly due to the news that two new masks will be given away via Duke's giveaway. As a special treat for our Market Report readers, here's a highly pixelated screenshot of one of the people we've chosen to immortalise in mask form.
Original article
Comments
Post a Comment