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Market Report March

sugarvalves [1963573]
Why are SED prices so high? Which plushies and flowers should you invest in before Museum Day? And must I eat all my eggs now? Find the answers to these questions and more in our latest Market Report!
April's headline news was the announcement that Easter Eggs will no longer be tradeable from 2023. But has this information affected the market yet? Let's find out as we take a look at SEDs, plushies, flowers, and the rest in this month's market report.


EXPLOSIVE PRICES

On March 6th a Small Explosive Device would cost you just $3.1m. Today, that same device will set you back nearly twice that amount, with SEDs going for $5.2m at the time of writing. Aaassh contacted The Times to tell us that these prices correspond with a huge amount of SED usage that took place during the NS2 v PT ranked war.

"PT should be mostly EU-based players. So they were SEDing overnight to avoid getting farmed. NS were then using SEDs during the PT waking hours to prevent getting farmed. So overall there was a huge increase in demand for the SEDs over that period. New war tactic that everyone was watching." - Aaassh


Pictured: SED one-month circulation graph.

The circulation graph shows that 900 SEDs were used between April 2nd and the 5th, during which we saw a hard-fought battle that was eventually won by PT-Family. But is this the sign of a new trend? Or was this explosive battle merely a one-off between two factions who simply had to win.

"You could say both factions value pride ahead of their personal finances and wanted to win at all costs. The price will probably come back to normal soon enough, but it will only take another long turtling war for these prices to quickly inflate again."
- Bumfluff

SEDs fell in price by $1 million between the 5th and 6th of April, indicating that their heavy use in ranked warring may not be a regular occurrence. Indeed, the last time the SED circulation fell significantly was during September's Elimination competition. The lack of dips in SED circulation since ranked warring was released suggests that we may only see heavy SED use during high-profile or grudge matches - savvy traders may want to price their items accordingly when such wars are arranged.

But we could be wrong. There's a chance that other factions will look at this ranked warring result, crunch the numbers, and decide that an investment in SEDs might just pay off. If SEDs were to become part of a new ranked warring meta, then their prices will surely continue to rise. And if that happens, we could see overall Item Market prices rise in tandem, since many traders are known to use these devices to protect their cash by transporting themselves to the hospital for several hours at a time.


CACHES COSTS CRUNCHED

We're hoping to publish an analysis of Advanced Weapon and Armor prices at some point over the coming weeks, but the huge array of items and variations on offer makes this quite a difficult task!

In the meantime, the general consensus appears to be that the value of Yellow items is becoming more sensible as their circulations have increased, whereas Orange and Red items are the ones making the headlines. This is especially true within the Armor trade, as Gloves, Boots, and Helmets for certain sets were priced under $1 billion at the time of writing, with Pants and Vests/Bodies going for between $1-2 billion.

Assault items seemed to be the priciest of the bunch, with many buyers keen to acquire their Impenetrable bonus, a perk that provides the wearer with reduced incoming bullet damage.


Pictured: Item Market Advanced Weapon and Armor offers on the 6th of April.

As you can see, the only Red level item available when we checked was a pair of Marauder Gloves going for $10b. That set of Orange Delta Armors was priced between $3b for the Boots and $5.9b for the Body. If you have any useful methods for identifying the correct value of Advanced Weapons and Armors then please let us know. In the meantime, here are the current market prices for the various caches.

Small Arms Cache - $600m
Melee Cache - $900m
Medium Arms Cache - $1b
Armor Cache - $1.5b
Heavy Arms Cache - $4.2b

"I've noticed another factor that's drastically reducing the ranked war caches market price besides demand and supply - Auction House. Sellers get impatient and sell it at whatever the trader has previously offered to buy at. Then the traders sell it to big players."

"Now the patient seller puts those caches in the auction house and mostly it's only traders that bid and a few players so they don't get enough bids to hit the seller's minimum desired price. So the traders having bought it really cheap from the auction sell it below the current market price."
- Nace


LAPTOPS OBSOLETE?


Following Chedburn's announcement that the sidebar is now accessible to foreign travellers, the price of laptops fell dramatically from $587k on the 30th of March to $454k at the time of writing. Laptops were enjoying an unusual price bump when this announcement was made, and they still remain around $40k higher than they were when the month started.


Pictured: Laptop one-month price graph.

Laptops are still used in crimes and programming viruses, however, so it would be incorrect to describe them as useless just because some of their unique functionality has been duplicated elsewhere. Their average price might fall below their usual $400k value at some point, but don't expect it to go much lower than that.


CANDIES TO FALL?

As revealed in the newspaper this week, 2022 will be the final year in which Easter Eggs can be bought and sold on the item market, or traded directly between players. From 2023, all eggs discovered during the Easter Egg Hunt will be untradeable, and their bonuses will be applied upon being used. All existing Easter Eggs will be converted to a generic Chocolate Egg sometime in early 2023, including the 250 happiness Gold Easter Egg.

This news is yet to have a major effect on the price of eggs, however, with most Easter Egg prices behaving as we'd expect given the time of year. Purples have risen substantially over the past few days, having gained $1m between the 4th and 6th of April. Whites added over $100k during the same period, with Blacks gaining $20k. Every other egg plateaued or fell in value, including Golds which will soon see a large circulation increase.


Pictured: Gold Easter Egg one-month price graph.

We expect that the value of all eggs will soon begin to fall even further, with possible exceptions being Whites and Purples, due to their relative rarity. But will the other candies follow suit? Cheb seems to think so - or they're just pretending to think that in order to egg-troll.


Larger Link

A quick look at the candy market shows that Cheb was telling porkies. 150 happiness candies only dropped by $2-4k, whereas 100 happy candies actually gained $10k this month, and several other lower happy candies also made small gains. The only candy that fell significantly was the Birthday Cupcake, which lost over $600k during March.


Pictured: Birthday Cupcake one-month price graph.

You may be thinking that this is the cheapest they'll get for a while, but thanks to the Easter Egg announcement, we should see large numbers of Gold Easter Eggs (the only other 250 happy candy) enter circulation over the coming weeks as players desperately trade in their last remaining egg stocks.

Furthermore, with all eggs scheduled to be exchanged for a generic chocolate egg sometime next year, there could be a glut of sellers desperate to get ahead of the curve by flogging their regular Easter Eggs on the market now. If this happens, expect candy prices to fall across the board.


A 420 THREAT?

The price of Cannabis has already begun to rise ahead of April's 420 event, during which players can enjoy three times the usual nerve boost from this drug, alongside a similarly tripled chance to overdose when taking it. Weed prices are roughly $1,6k lower than they were at this time last year, indicating that the extra demand for Cannabis may only result in a sub-$10k price spike - last year's max was $10.7k.


Pictured: Cannabis one-year price graph.

These low price ceilings may be lowered even further if we see more players take after FIDEL-CASTRO, who often sells Cannabis for just $420 to celebrate this holiday every year. However, while players like Fidel like to use 420 to share the wealth, others see this event as a chance to make a quick buck.

In 2020, KrombopulousM spent $600m to try and artificially raise the price of Cannabis during the 420 event. This year, under the new name of Kromb, he's attempting to succeed where he previously failed.

"Some may not remember me although a few recognize the name. Well unfortunately my plans for 04/20/2020 were foiled by a man with the name of Fidel. This Year I will succeed I am in the works of something even bigger than stated in the article published on 04/13//20. I want to drop $2B in that way the prices will skyrocket followed by it crashing as bad as Vicodin did a few years ago." - Kromb


LOTTERY DEMAND INCREASES

The price of a Lottery Voucher has increased massively over the past year, growing from $880k to just shy of $1m during the past twelve months. SpeedSkateR has a theory as to why this is happening.

"I think this is in part due to winners posting threads about not only winning but also specifying the amount of vouchers it took to achieve these wins. I believe there were at least two winners posts where this amount was specified and the amount bought was great." - SpeedSkateR


MEDICALS FALTER

Medical items enjoyed a huge boost at the beginning of March, with the price of a First Aid Kit and Small First Aid Kit rising considerably between the 6th and the 12th. These inflated values have now given way slightly, with both SFAKS and FAKS continuing to fall in price since.


Pictured: SFAK three-month price graph

SFAKs have never been this consistently low in Torn City history, and their current $3,281 value coupled with their average monthly loss of $400-600 means they're at risk of dropping below $3k by the end of April.

"At this price I expect more people to take advantage to supplement the "meds used" statistic and achieve the 25k medical items used medal faster. 3 blood bags and 15 SFAKs at a time a few times a day will crunch through this rare medal that only 701 citizens have!" - Skylos

Morphine has finally returned to its Summer 2021 price of around $13k, having peaked at $18k in November of that year. This healing item has fallen consistently ever since Christmas and is now priced at $13.5k, with the potential to drop far below $13k unless something drastic happens. But could that drastic thing be a return to the glory days for the Dog Tags event?

Torn has promised to reveal the new rules for this competition sometime around mid-April, so expect any price rises to happen shortly after this info is revealed.
The price of FAKS, SFAKS, and Morphine will likely continue to fall unless we see major interest in Dog Tags, or we are treated to some unforeseen new medical change that increases their usage.

Elsewhere, TiredSaladlego's dirty bomb spree had the expected effect of causing Neumune prices to rise, but this growth was about as short-lived as the interest in his radioactive exploits. Neumunes began the month at around $1.15m and peaked at $1.84m on the 12th, before falling down to their current price of $1.05m. Some of our more resourceful citizens took this opportunity to fill up a few bags of radioactive blood, as you can see from the circulation graph below.


Pictured: One-month Blood Bag: Irradiated circulation graph.

As for regular bloods, most types didn't see much movement in their price over March. A- was one of the exceptions, having lost $2.3k during the past 30 days. On the other hand, B+ had a great March, increasing in value by $2.2k per bag. Elsewhere, B- gained $1.9k, and AB+ gained $1k, but the real moneymaker was AB-, which rose from $31k on the 6th to $44.5k on the 20th, only to lose all of this and drop back down to $31k today.


TEMPORARY INJECTABLES

In an exclusive for our Market Report readers, we can confirm that the delayed revamp of Strip Clubs is now imminent. The exact nature of the changes will be revealed once they have gone live, but as we've mentioned before in this column, one of the specials in each strip club will be related to certain temporary injectables. We expect the price of these items to rise over the coming weeks if these upgraded company types prove attractive enough to employees in other industries.


PRANK ITEMS

April 1st traditionally sees a large number of happiness reducers paid out to Torn's loyal subscribers. This year was no exception, with over 13,000 Stink Bombs, 14,000 Bags of Dog Poop, and 500 Horse's Heads distributed to our regular donators - that's a lot of busy dogs right there.


Pictured: Bag of Dog Poop one-month circulation graph.

Oddly enough, this increase in circulation resulted in a price rise for the Horse's Head, as their value rose from $870k to over $1m. Conversely, Bags of Dog Poop lost $17k on April 2nd and have since dropped a further $55k since. Stink Bombs have also lost a great deal of value, with $80k shed from their value between the 1st and 5th of April.

"Don't get too invested on those items, they are only one-use items and they'll quickly lose circulation after a couple of days."
- Hamburguejas


BOOSTERS BOOSTED

Erotic DVDs are continuing to gain value as their use among happy jumpers grows evermore. April 2021 marked a historic low for pornography prices as the cost of a dirty movie fell to $1.9 million - their lowest consistent value since 2015. But things are now looking up for porn dealers, with E-DVDs having enjoyed a continuous price rise since November, gaining $1.4 million in the months since to take them to $3.4 million today.

"EDVD price is a bubble and a crash is imminent." - --ZERO--


Pictured: Erotic DVD six-month price graph.

FHCs have fared less well, as after their promising gains in February they have now begun to stagnate. Their circulation graphs suggest that these items are being saved for major attacking events like Valentine's Day and Halloween, as opposed to being used on a more regular basis during ranked wars. FHCs lost a great deal of value this time last year when Stocks 3.0 was released, but they have since gained all of that back and more when their circulation plateaued, as fewer FHCs are now entering the market.


MUSEUM DAY DEALS

Museum Day is just over a month away, so if you're short of a few flowers or plushies for a set you'd better get flying or buying as soon as possible. Most of these items have already risen in price ahead of the 10% boost to Museum point payouts, but one or two haven't, meaning there are bargains to be had if you're quick.


Pictured: Camel Plushie one-year price graph.

At $93k, Camels are $2k lower than they were at this time last year when they hit a high of $97,756 during Museum Day, so a quick $5k profit per item could be made if these trends are repeated this year. But in 2021, greater gains were to be found in Lions, whose price rose from $75k to $88k between May 12th and May 19th. Their current price is a competitive $73k, so these could be worth a punt for resale if you aren't already stocked up.


Pictured: Lion Plushie one-year price graph.

Nessie Plushies might also be worth a shot since they gained $4k between April 7th and May 19th 2021, although they are currently gaining price by the day, and were valued at $41,442 when this article was written. A better bet might be the Chamois, whose value appears to be low at the moment.

"Chamois plushie prices have dropped dramatically, reaching their lowest price in 3 years. Seems like prime buying time to me." - RadiatedImp

Chamois only gained around $1k thanks to Museum Day 2021, but they are now valued a whopping $7k lower than they were last year. This seems too low to me, so I'd consider investing in these even though their circulation is quite high for a plushie.


Pictured: Chamois one-year price graph.

As for flowers, Cherry Blossoms offer a reasonable prospect of returns as they gained $6k before Museum Day last year - although they are currently priced $2k higher than they were in 2021, at $65k per item. Heather also looks like it's capable of making you a profit, with this flower being priced roughly the same as it was last year when it gained $8k during early May.

Orchids gained a lot too last year, but they have remained high in price ever since, meaning they may not have much further to go towards their price ceiling. African Violets would be my pick for flipping, as they gained $8k last year and are a further $8k down on their 2021 price too.


Pictured: African Violet one-year price graph.

Overall, 1.5 million plushie sets were exchanged during Museum Day last year, compared to 912,000 flower sets. These exchanges resulted in an average price drop of 5% for flowers and 3.4% for plushies. The value of all plushies and flowers typically takes less than a month or two to recover, but this can change dramatically depending on the volume exchanged.

"The torn city plushies kitten sheep and teddy plushies have all hit 3 year highs near exactly the same time. With some hoarders selling them in bazaars in large amounts arout $1800 to $2000. Price manipulation or investment in the lead up to museum day?"
- Protokop

"Knytet trys to increase and to control the price for Teddy Bear and Sheep Plushie. Take a look at his bazaar. He is also working on increasing the price for Kitten Plushie." - Sidellan



MISCELLANEOUS

Cricket Bats rose from $15k to $118k then back down to $27k this month. Why?

"Has the dramatic increase of cricket bats as the International Cricket Season approaches? Brings back memories of living in The Bronx." - Sweettart

Cesium is down by $60m over the month, presumably because TiredSaladlego is no longer driving up demand.

Xanax seems to be sitting comfortably at $837k now that ranked warring is up and running, but one player has noticed some trends that may see its value rise above this in the coming weeks.

"Over the past couple of weeks I have diligently observed the mass buying of all lower price Xanax by a particular few that I don’t want to name at the moment since I’m not entirely sure they’re working together in order to boost the price I can only assume." - Revenar

LSD is up $5k this month, whereas Speed is down $5k. Coincidence? Yes.

Motorcycle Helmets seem to be losing the value they gained during the start of the year. Their value will only decrease as additional Advanced Armors enter the market.

"Gift card, in the last months had a value of 3 million and now it's at 2.6 million."
- Sinnombre42

"With the Easter bunny NPC dropping multiple rounds of Goodie Bags during the month of April per day, It's price is expected to bottom out at around 26-27 million, down from It's yearly high of 30-31 million. While it may not be the biggest price dip, It's still just tempting enough to gamble a few loose 100's to make a profit off of the 'Unbagged' energy drinks." - 4n4rchist

"MY TIP: SELL Christmas Town ecans and stockpile on xanax and currently cheap temporaries such as Flashbangs." - Hamburguejas


SUBMIT YOUR OBSERVATIONS!

Those whose observations were included in this month's report will receive a Donator Pack. If you'd like to submit a trading observation or trend that you've noticed, please send them to the Torn City Times via the Tell Your Story section. The best time to send these in is from the middle of the month onwards, but if you notice anything important before that please don't hesitate to contact us anyway!


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